The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Cliffy]

Blowing up the "19% of Ohioans have already voted" poll finding:

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/

This would make the third serious point that says PPP is not a credible pollster anymore.

1. They consistently skew the most to Obama in their results
2. Akin leading by 1 after his comments, completely a political play to keep him in
3. The SOS release shows 3% early voting, yet they're pushing propaganda that there's 20% (along with marist) early voting.  Neither should be considered credible anymore

Kos Kids/Union goon poll is junk....  anyone referencing them should be laughed at. 

[Cliffy]

oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Really? Hardly a conspiracy theory.   I'm sorry PPP is not credible they made that choice this time around.  At some point 20% of Ohio may vote early but they haven't yet, we are talking about a major difference.  What a crazy claim to make. 

Keep grasping at straws.

[Cliffy]

Here's a breakdown, show's at best 5.5% early voting in Ohio.


http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/

[Cliffy]

From GMU updated 10/14, didn't see this posted, am I reading this correctly?

50k early votes

Party Reg 
Dem 27.4%
Rep 54.2%
None/Oth 18.4%
Age 
18-29 8.6%
30-44 10.9%
45-59 21.0%
60+ 59.5%
Race 
White 88.9%
Black 7.1%
Other 3.9%
Gender 
Female 56.2%
Male 43.0%
Unk. 0.8%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Cliffy]

Over at ACE in response to crazy marist IA early vote poll

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[Cliffy]

Ethusigasms....

[Cliffy]

Colorado mail-in ballots returned to date:

Republicans: 10,884
Democrats: 8,516
Unaffiliated: 5,727

http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_21810412/more-than-25k-colo-voters-have-cast-ballots

According to the Post, conservative Douglas County (suburban Denver) leads in returns thus far.

[Cliffy]

I don't think anybody expects the Democrats will get the same percentage margins over Republicans in early voting in 2012 that they did in 2008 simply because this year the Romney Campaign is making an effort in Early Voting while McCain did not. To me the more interesting numbers will be comparing raw Democratic turnout in 2012 vs 2008. The Republican talking point the past couple of years has been that Democratic enthusiasm and turnout will be down this year, so far that does not seem to be the case. If Democrats show up in the numbers they did in 2008 Obama wins, simple as that.

IF, right now you are correct. 

[Cliffy]

I read that if the GOP keeps the diff at 60k or less in Iowa they should win.  Thoughts?

[Cliffy]

Thanks,

[Cliffy]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Cliffy]

Nevada is going to prob be the toughest battleground for Romney.   The party was a mess thanks to Paulbots, lot of challenges there, I think they did a great job recovering but may be to little.  Pretty sure the Dems have a pretty good registration advantage.

This is a good guy to follow on NV
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

[Cliffy]

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http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots

[Cliffy]

Adrian Gray: Virginia: Base precincts (60%+) for GOP turning at 124% of current 2008 levels. DEM precincts are at 98%. In other words, GOP doing well.

[Cliffy]

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source with access to ballot return numbers, the figures are as follows:

Total:

R: 187,824 (39.7%)

D: 171,971 (36.3%)

U: 108,421 (22.9%)

Mail-In/Absentee Ballots

R: 172,461

D: 158,139

U: 98,532

Early Voting

R: 15,363

D: 13,832

U: 9,889

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

[Cliffy]

Here's a link to VA early voting stats being kept by Charlie Cook
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdGhrcnotRXU3SzZUcERPMW1JSWY5Q3c#gid=0

Mccain counties are up, the bad news for Obama is Fairfax, Arlington, and Richmond City are experiencing big early voting drops and all were where he got a lot of raw votes last time.

[Cliffy]

NC: I didn't put these #s together, swiped off another site.

A. Raw Vote Comparison
2012/2008/Diff.
Dem.- 726,400/671,700/ +54,700
Rep.- 456,300/ 338,500/ +117,800
Ind.- 282,500/ 209,900/ + 72,600

B.Percentage Change
Dem.- 49.5/ 55.0/ -5.5
Rep.- 31.1/ 27.8/ +3.3
Ind.- 19.3/ 17.2/ +2.1

NC: 

Dem    49.5%
Rep    31.1%
None/Oth    19.4%
Age    
18-29    10.7%
30-44    18.0%
45-59    28.9%
60+    42.3%
Race    
White    66.4%
Black    28.9%
Other    4.7%
Gender    
Female    55.9%
Male    43.1%
Unk.    1.0%

Black turnout is declining.  Youngs are doing better, but still well below their 2008 numbers.

[Cliffy]

VA

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http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1094

[Cliffy]

looking good in FL



http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/democrats-face-early-vote-hurdle-fla

[Cliffy]

Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

This is what Adrian Gray's tweeting.  Looking really solid for Romney.  Early voting is strong for GOP this time.  There is nothing to suggest that D+8> turnout is going to happen.

[Cliffy]

Nevada is more in play than I expected, going to come down to independents.

Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

What's the magic number in your mind for Obama to pull off a victory in Nevada on Election Day?

With this number and Reid's turnout machine coming out to play, I think Obama's got this state in the bag.

My calculations have the Democrat margin somewhere between 25,000 and 35,000 votes through 10/30 (depending on how you apportion the independents). Is that an insurmountable number for the Republicans to overcome historically on Election Day?

[Cliffy]

Cuyahoga county, OH voting down 6k vs 2012, not looking good for your turnout models.....

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

[Cliffy]

I'm saying versus sametime in 2008.  Also translates to down 15%

Cuyahoga county, OH voting down 6k vs 2012, not looking good for your turnout models.....

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

That document says its down 21K

[Cliffy]

romney up 36k in Co, not counting independents

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/11/01/file_attachments/172596/Gen%2BTurnout%2B11%2B01%2B2012.pdf

[Cliffy]

Republicans look poised to take Washoe county, if they continue what they are doing in Clark we actually have a decent shot at Nevada, I didn't expect that.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/01/another-day-another-washoe-county-win-for-republicans-in-early-voting/

Dems up 55k in Clark, going to be close.
http://www.ralstonflash.com/blog/democratic-lead-clark-55000-washoe-remains-tight#.UJM9mYZyhSh