2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread

[NHI]

Reminder: This round closes tonight, with results from Michigan coming tomorrow.

[NHI]

Breaking News: Howard Dean drops out; Endorses Lincoln

Breaking News: Howard Dean drops out; Endorses Lincoln

Howard Dean, front runner for the nomination abruptly ended his presidential campaign ahead of Michigan, throwing his support behind Blanche Lincoln. No word yet on Dean's reasoning, and it is unclear how his departure will shift the race in Michigan, where the polls showed an increasingly tight race. 

[NHI]

OOC: I'm going to be real. Can we extend this turn until after the election? Thursday or Wednesday at midnight?

I'm sorry I didn't see this until this am. I can give you to later today if that works?
I'll push off the next round until Saturday...

[NHI]

OOC: I'm going to be real. Can we extend this turn until after the election? Thursday or Wednesday at midnight?

I'm sorry I didn't see this until this am. I can give you to later today if that works?
I'll push off the next round until Saturday...

What do you mean? This or the next round

To be fair to the other players I'm willing to extend this current round until today at 6pm est and then moving the next round (which I originally scheduled to close Friday) to Saturday...

[NHI]

OOC: I'm going to be real. Can we extend this turn until after the election? Thursday or Wednesday at midnight?

I'm sorry I didn't see this until this am. I can give you to later today if that works?
I'll push off the next round until Saturday...

What do you mean? This or the next round

To be fair to the other players I'm willing to extend this current round until today at 6pm est and then moving the next round (which I originally scheduled to close Friday) to Saturday...

I'm fine with these changes.

badgate, if that works for you that'll be the plan.

[NHI]

Michigan Primary: RCP Average Bayh+4.5

Evan Bayh: 37.0%
Hillary Clinton: 32.5%
Blanche Lincoln: 25.5%
Undecided: 5.0%

Detroit News Poll: Bayh +3

Evan Bayh: 35%
Hillary Clinton: 32%
Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Undecided: 7%

Mitchell Research Poll: Bayh +4

Evan Bayh: 38%
Hillary Clinton: 34%
Blanche Lincoln: 24%
Undecided: 3%

PPP Poll: Bayh +9

Evan Bayh: 39%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Undecided: 5%

EPIC-MRA Poll: Bayh +3

Evan Bayh: 36%
Hillary Clinton: 33%
Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Undecided: 4%

[NHI]

Round 14: January 16-19, 2008

Michigan Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rudy Giuliani: 85.1% (30)

Mark Sanford: 14.9%

President Giuliani cruised to a third straight victory, crushing Mark Sanford, who suspended his campaign before the primary and threw his support behind the President, calling him "the best man to lead the nation over the next four years." Sanford struggled to gain traction over the President throughout the pre-primary cycle and failed to gain any sense of momentum after losing badly in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Giuliani, is expected to announce his pick for Vice President in the coming days and some speculations have pointed to Sanford being the choice, as a way of uniting the party.

Sanford's exit clears the way for Giuliani to become the party's nominee, and pundits call Sanford's withdrawal unites the party around the President, which is important as he takes on his Democratic opponents.

And then there were three! On the Democratic side, the race faced a major shakeup. Frontrunner Howard Dean abruptly ended his bid for President, right before the Michigan Primary. In his exit speech Dean endorsed Blanche Lincoln, some sources close to the campaign have suggested medical reasons were the cause for Dean's departure from the race.

As for the Michigan Primary Evan Bayh the long term favorite in Michigan looked to put a win on the board after two losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. Not unlike the previous contest the results were dragged out throughout the night, with Bayh, and trading leads throughout the night. Ultimately, Bayh won the primary, albeit by a narrower margin than previously expected, emphasizing the fluidity of the Democratic race.

The Republican primary now over -- the Democratic one looks to be one for the long haul...

Michigan Primary: Democrats (1% Reported)

Evan Bayh: 39.0%
Hillary Clinton: 33.6%
Blanche Lincoln: 25.4%
Other: 1.0%

Michigan Primary: Democrats (26% Reported)

Evan Bayh: 38.8%
Hillary Clinton: 34.8%
Blanche Lincoln: 25.5%
Other: 1.0%

√ Evan Bayh Wins Michigan Primary

Michigan Primary: Democrats (61% Reported)

√ Evan Bayh: 37.9%

Hillary Clinton: 34.0%
Blanche Lincoln 26.9%
Other: 1.2%

Michigan Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Evan Bayh: 37.9% (26)
Hillary Clinton: 34.1% (22)
Blanche Lincoln: 27.0% (15)
Other: 1.0%

Nevada Caucuses: Democrats (January 19)

Hillary Clinton: 33%
Evan Bayh: 32%
Blanche Lincoln: 24%
Undecided: 10%

South Carolina: Democrats (January 19)

Blanche Lincoln: 35%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Evan Bayh: 29%
Undecided: 6%

Delegate Count: Democrats

Evan Bayh: 46

Hillary Clinton: 37

Blanche Lincoln: 29

Howard Dean: 20

Delegate Count: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 88 Presumptive Nominee

Mark Sanford: 1

This Round will close on Saturday at 11:59pm EST.

[NHI]

Gallup Poll: Democratic Primary January 2008

Hillary Clinton: 32%
Evan Bayh: 32%
Blanche Lincoln: 31%
Undecided: 5%

Which candidate can defeat President Giuliani?

Hillary Clinton: 34%
Evan Bayh: 33%
Blanche Lincoln: 30%
Undecided: 3%

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: DEAN SUFFERED HEART ATTACK; REASON FOR EXIT REVEALED

Dean Spokesperson Jerry Brown on Candidate's sudden withdraw

"Governor Dean had a heart attack while speaking in Detriot, and a pretty severe one. He can't possibly continue the campaign, and so he's given me this message. Governor Dean respects the work all the other candidates have put forward, but only one can make real change AND beat President Giuliani, and that is Former Senator Blanche Lincoln. His arguement is simple - Evan Bayh's record and campaign has made it impossible for him to make any real difference, and while Senator Clinton is decidedly more liberal than Lincoln, her campaign has been rather strange and her recent surge confounding to him, while Lincoln has gone out and moved the bar on issues like poverty, and has a real ability to fight President Giuliani. When Dean recovers fully, if he does within a couple of months, he will campaign full-on for Senator Lincoln, demanding the party to unite behind the Senator."


In a statement from Howard Dean, his campaign revealed he suffered a massive heart attack while campaigning in Michigan and the result has prevented him from being to able to carry on the campaign. Instead he has thrown his support to Blanche Lincoln, the former Arkansas Senator and 2004 Vice Presidential candidate.

Lincoln, despite coming in third has seen a recent surge with Dean's sudden exit and endorsement. Polling puts her ahead in Florida and South Carolina, two important battleground states.

[NHI]

General Election Polls: January 2008

Heading for a Battle in November?!

Despite wrapping up a primary challenge -- President Giuliani has seen his numbers shrink in the head-to-head match up against the three remaining Democratic challengers, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton and Blanche Lincoln. In the latest poll, Lincoln does the best, coming off a surge in support following Howard Dean's sad departure, which resulted in him endorsing the Arkansas Democrat. Throughout the recent months Giuliani has held steady against his rivals, leading all of them by healthy margins, this is the first time the polls have suggested the November election may be tightening, with party fatigue perhaps contributing to some degree and the aftermath of the GOP primary Giuliani may be feeling the heat.

Gallup: AVG R: 50.0% D: 45.3% (+4.7)

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+4)

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)

Hillary Clinton: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)

Evan Bayh: 45%

PPP: AVG: R: 49.3% D: 45.0% (R+4.3)

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+3)

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+5)

Hillary Clinton: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)

Evan Bayh: 45%

NBC/WSJ: AVG: R: 49.3% D: 45.7% (R+3.6)

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+3)

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+4)

Hillary Clinton: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+4)

Evan Bayh: 45%

RCP AVG: January 2008 (R+4.2)

Rudy Giuliani: 49.5%

Democrat: 45.3%

[NHI]

Giuliani-Allen 2008

President Giuliani announced his Vice Presidential pick to be Senator George Allen; his one-time rival from four years ago. A pick which will likely rally the Republican base around the President as he looks to take on his Democratic opponent, once an official nominee is clear.

Support for the Republican Ticket:

Positive: 85%

Negative: 11%
Undecided/No Opinion: 4%

Presidential Giuliani Approval Rating:

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
Undecided/No Opinion: 6%

[NHI]

Ohio

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (R+3)

Generic Democrat: 46%

Arkansas:

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (R+5)

Generic Democrat: 45%

with Blanche Lincoln and Hillary Clinton

Lincoln: 48% (+1)

Giuliani: 47%

Giuliani: 48%

Clinton: 48%

Kentucky:

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+4)

Generic Democrat: 45%

[NHI]

OOC; Since we (Democrats) are now three, I think the endorsement limit should be raised from a maximum five to seven (and then ten, at the head-to-head stage). Of course, all endorsements would remain NHI's discretion.

Yes, that is fine with me.

[NHI]

Evan Bayh: The Darkest of Dark Horses Sees the Light of Day

In the wake of Howard Dean's exit from the Democratic Primary, one candidate stands ready to pick up the lead -- and that is Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh has positioned himself below the radar throughout much of the campaign, focusing on the important states. He came narrowly close in Iowa and New Hampshire and finally won the day with a win in Michigan. Now that it is a three-man race the Indiana Democrat is picking up speed and is determined to be the last man standing. However, what separates Bayh from Hillary Clinton and Blanche Lincoln is a sense of acceptability, of prowess and readiness. Bayh is the only candidate to have executive experience, thereby launching him evenly with President Giuliani.

While Clinton and Lincoln have both appealed and at time pandered to the more liberal base of their party Bayh has carved out a spot in the sacred middle ground -- a section that decides Presidential election. The question is whether or not that position of moderation will put him over the top in the Democratic primary. In the mean time, Bayh has been successful at keeping a low profile in this race and beating expectations. He'll need to pick up another big win to remain viable possibly become one of the final two.

[NHI]

Races Tightening in Nevada and South Carolina for the Democrats

The latest CBS News polls shows Evan Bayh is now leading in the Nevada Caucuses, coming off his win in the Michigan Primary. In South Carolina, where Blanche Lincoln has been the long time favorite the most recent Gallup poll has showed the race to be tightening. Democratic pundits point to an energized party and a field with much stronger candidates than four years ago. Other points to the fluidity in the race and the lack of the clear frontrunner, especially now after Howard Dean's departure.

If Howard Dean's health hadn't sidelined him it is believed by many that the former Vermont Governor would have won the nomination, give his campaign infrastructure and victories in both New Hampshire and Iowa. The question now is whether any of the candidate can seize the Dean mantle. Lincoln has received his endorsement but has yet to win a single primary and given she was the losing Vice Presidential candidate from four years ago many voters are unsure if they want her leading the top of the ticket.

Interestingly enough, Bayh is the only remaining candidate in the race to have won a primary. Hillary Clinton originally was thought to have won the New Hampshire primary, but lost narrowly to Dean in a recount and of course Dean won the first contest in Iowa.

CBS News/WSJ Poll: Nevada Caucuses

Evan Bayh: 36%
Hillary Clinton: 31%
Blanche Lincoln: 29%
Undecided: 4%

Gallup Poll: South Carolina Primary

Blanche Lincoln: 34%
Evan Bayh: 32%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Undecided: 4%

[NHI]

Latest Polls:

South Carolina: Democrats (Zogby)

Blanche Lincoln: 37%

Evan Bayh: 31%
Hillary Clinton: 29%

Nevada: Democrats (Zogby)

Evan Bayh: 35%

Hillary Clinton: 34%
Blanche Lincoln: 29%

Florida: General Election R+3 (Gallup)

Rudy Giuliani: 49%

Evan Bayh: 46%

Florida: General Election R+4

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

Florida: General Election R+5

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Hillary Clinton: 45%

Ohio General Election R+2 (Gallup)

Rudy Giuliani: 49%

Evan Bayh: 47%

Ohio: General Election R+4

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Hillary Clinton: 46%

Ohio: General Election R+6

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Blanche Lincoln: 44%

[NHI]

General Election Polls: Gallup January 2008

Alaska: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Generic Democrat: 39%

Colorado: Tossup

Rudy Giuliani: 49%

Generic Democrat: 45%

Connecticut: Tossup

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Generic Democrat: 47%

Florida: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Generic Democrat: 45%

Maine: Tossup

Generic Democrat: 48%

Rudy Giuliani: 46%

Michigan: Tossup

Generic Democrat: 49%

Rudy Giuliani: 46%

New Hampshire: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Generic Democrat: 44%

New Jersey: Tossup

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Generic Democrat: 47%

New York: Tossup

Rudy Giuliani: 49%

Generic Democrat: 45%

New Mexico: Tossup

Generic Democrat: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 46%

Nevada: Tossup

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Generic Democrat: 46%

Montana: Tossup

Rudy Giuliani: 49%

Generic Democrat: 45%

Ohio: Tossup

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Generic Democrats: 47%

Wisconsin: Tossup

Generic Democrat: 48%

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Virginia: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 52%

Generic Democrat: 43%

Missouri: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 52%

Generic Democrat: 45%

Kentucky: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Generic Democrat: 44%

Arkansas: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Generic Democrat: 46%

Georgia: Lean Giuliani:

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Generic Democrat: 43%

North Carolina: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Generic Democrat: 44%

West Virginia: Lean Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Generic Democrat: 45%

Iowa: Lean Democrat

Generic Democrat: 49%

Rudy Giuliani: 44%

Oregon: Lean Democrat

Generic Democrat: 50%

Rudy Giuliani: 44%

Washington: Lean Democrat

Generic Democrat: 51%

Rudy Giuliani: 45%

Pennsylvania: Lean Democrat

Generic Democrat: 50%

Rudy Giuliani: 46%

[NHI]

Round 15: January 20-29, 2008

One year before Inauguration Day. The candidates are continuing their long slog ahead of the conventions. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani became the presumptive nominee following the departure of Mark Sanford who dropped out of the race before the Michigan Primary. Giuliani, then announced his selection of George Allen, the Virginia Senator and the President's rival from four years ago to be his choice for Vice President. Many pundits see Allen as a perfect foil for Giuliani as he looks to bring back disaffected conservatives to the party.

On the Democratic the primary continues. Evan Bayh, the winner of the Michigan vote has seen a surge in support and is considered a strong contender for the nomination. Both Blanche Lincoln and Hillary Clinton are remaining factors in the race, but the former is seen as the stronger contender, than the latter as of late. Whether Lincoln will be able to close the deal remains to be seen. The Former Senator and VP nominee secured her first victory by winning the South Carolina Primary, narrowly beating Bayh who came close to overtaking Lincoln in a state she was widely expected to carry. Bayh benefited from strong support among African-Americans and most prominently Senator Barack Obama who joined him on the stump. Bayh's strong second place finish is considered a victory for his campaign going forward.

As for Clinton, she finally put some points on the board, with a narrow win over Bayh in the Nevada Caucus. From here the campaign presses on to the all important Florida Primary on January 29th, which pundits declare will be the decider for which of three candidates advance onto Super Tuesday.

South Carolina Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Blanche Lincoln: 37.41% (29)

Evan Bayh: 33.69% (18)

Hillary Clinton: 27.90%) (7)
Other: 1.00%

Nevada Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 37.35% (11)

Evan Bayh: 37.01% (10)

Blanche Lincoln: 24.64% (4)

Delegate Count: Democrats

Evan Bayh: 74

Blanche Lincoln: 62 (*82 w/ Dean's Delegates)

Hillary Clinton: 55

Howard Dean: 20

Florida Primary Poll: January 29, 2008

Evan Bayh: 35%
Hillary Clinton: 32%
Blanche Lincoln: 30%
Undecided: 3%

Democratic Nomination Poll: Gallup (Bayh +4)

Evan Bayh: 35%
Hillary Clinton: 31%
Blanche Lincoln: 29%
Undecided: 5%

General Election Poll: Gallup

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (R+3)

Evan Bayh: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (R+4)

Hillary Clinton: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (R+3)

Blanche Lincoln: 47%

Gallup: Four-way Race

Rudy Giuliani: 37% (R+4)

Evan Bayh: 33%

Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Jesse Ventura: 11%

Rudy Giuliani: 38% (R+5)

Hillary Clinton: 33%

Michael Bloomberg: 15%
Jesse Ventura: 12%

Rudy Giuliani: 37% (R+4)

Blanche Lincoln: 33%

Michael Bloomberg: 14%
Jesse Ventura: 12%

Gallup Average: General Election
Two-way Race: R+ 3.4
Four-way Race: R+ 4.0

Rudy Giuliani: 49.7%

Generic Democrat: 46.3%

Rudy Giuliani: 37.3%

Generic Democrat: 33.0%

Michael Bloomberg: 14.0%
Jesse Ventura: 11.7%

Rudy Giuliani: 241 (44.8% of EV)

Generic Democrat: 190 (35% of EV)

This Round will Close on Wednesday at 11:59pm EST

[NHI]

BAYH CONTESTS NEVADA RESULTS

Another close race and another recount. Evan Bayh is requesting a recount following the narrow win for Clinton in Nevada.

[NHI]

Super Tuesday Polls:

Alabama: Lincoln +13
Lincoln: 40%
Clinton: 27%
Bayh: 27%

Alaska: Clinton +1
Clinton: 34%
Bayh: 33%
Lincoln: 29%

American Samoa: Clinton+11
Clinton: 40%
Bayh: 29%
Lincoln: 26%

Arizona: Clinton +1
Clinton: 36%
Bayh: 35%
Lincoln: 29%

Arkansas: Lincoln+8
Lincoln: 45%
Clinton: 37%
Bayh:    13%

California: Clinton +3
Clinton: 35%
Bayh: 32%
Lincoln: 28%

Colorado: Bayh+3
Bayh: 36%
Clinton: 33%
Lincoln: 29%

Connecticut: Clinton+8
Clinton: 40%
Bayh: 32%
Lincoln: 25%

Delaware: Bayh+6
Bayh: 37%
Clinton: 31%
Lincoln: 28%

Georgia: Lincoln+5
Lincoln: 37%
Clinton: 32%
Bayh: 27%

Idaho: Clinton+9
Clinton: 44%
Bayh:   35%
Lincoln: 16%

Illinois: Tied
Clinton: 34%
Bayh:    34%
Lincoln: 28%

Indiana: Bayh+32
Bayh: 64%
Clinton: 21%
Lincoln: 12%

Massachusetts: Clinton+4
Clinton: 37%
Bayh:   33%
Lincoln: 25%

Minnesota: Bayh +1
Bayh: 36%
Lincoln: 35%
Clinton: 28%

Missouri: Lincoln+5
Lincoln: 36%
Bayh: 31%
Clinton: 28%

New Jersey: Clinton+28
Clinton: 53%
Bayh:   25%
Lincoln: 15%

New Mexico: Bayh+3
Bayh: 32%
Lincoln: 29%
Clinton: 29%

New York: Clinton+44
Clinton: 64%
Bayh:   20%
Lincoln: 13%

North Dakota: Lincoln+5
Lincoln: 37%
Bayh: 32%
Clinton: 23%

Oklahoma: Lincoln+12
Lincoln: 41%
Clinton: 29%
Bayh: 25%

Tennessee: Lincon+6
Lincoln: 37%
Clinton: 31%
Bayh: 25%

Utah: Bayh+3
Bayh: 36%
Clinton: 32%
Lincoln: 27%

[NHI]

√ CLINTON PREVAILS IN NEVADA RECOUNT

January 22, 2008

Hillary Clinton came out on top in the Nevada Recount. The win is the first for Clinton, who narrowly lost the New Hampshire Primary to Howard Dean. The campaign is hoping that this win will put her back in the running for the nomination. Currently Clinton is running second nationally and in Florida behind Evan Bayh. As of this point all three remaining candidates have each won a state wide contest.

Nevada Caucuses Recount: 100% Reported

√ Hillary Clinton: 37.34%

Evan Bayh: 37.07%
Blanche Lincoln: 24.59%
Other: 1.00%

[NHI]

Question: Why are Bloomberg and Ventura still drawing double digit numbers in polls? Neither have posted for several rounds.

They really don't have to until both major parties have nominees IMO.

But double digits?

The four-way race polls given an indication of their strength, the head-to-head polls are a more accurate picture of the race.

[NHI]

To The Democratic Candidates:

Interested in answering questions from a Meet The Press Roundtable Discussion with Russert?

[NHI]

Democratic Candidates: Round Table Discussion with Tim Russert

The race is down to the final three, and at the end of this process one of you will be the Democratic Nominee, taking on an incumbent President, first off I'll give each of you an opportunity to elaborate briefly why you'd be the better candidate and number two how you would defeat President Giuliani.

Currently, there is a great debate in the country over whether or not to abolish the electoral college some states are already taking up that discussion. Would you support an end to the electoral college system, should we keep it, or should it be amended?

What are your thoughts about President Giuliani's proposals to reform health care and do you support the President nominees for Secretary of State and Defense?

The President has outlined a plan for withdrawing American troops in Iraq, starting in 2009, do you support it, does it go far enough, or is pulling out now the right option for the US?

Now this next answer will be partisan, but an honest estimate, how you rate President Giuliani's term in office, nearly four years in?

[NHI]

General Election PPP (January 22, 2008)

Forecasting: A Close Election; Latest Polls Shows Tightening Race

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+2)

Evan Bayh: 48%

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+3)

Hillary Clinton: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+3)

Blanche Lincoln: 47%

Average: Giuliani +2.7

Rudy Giuliani: 49.7%

Generic Democrat: 47.0%

Rudy Giuliani: 45% (+1)

Evan Bayh: 44%

Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Jesse Ventura: 2%

Rudy Giuliani: 45% (+2)

Hillary Clinton: 43%

Michael Bloomberg: 6%
Jesse Ventura: 3%

Rudy Giuliani: 46% (+2)

Blanche Lincoln: 44%

Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Jesse Ventura: 2%

Average: Giuliani +1.6

Rudy Giuliani: 45.3%

Generic Democrat: 43.7%

Michael Bloomberg: 5.3%

Jesse Ventura: 2.3%