2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread

[NHI]

Primary Schedule

Jan. 3: Iowa
Jan. 5: Wyoming (Republican only)
Jan. 8: New Hampshire
Jan. 15: Michigan
Jan. 19: Nevada/South Carolina
Jan. 29: Florida

Super Tuesday 1: Feb 5
1. Alabama
2. Alaska
3. Arizona
4. Arkansas
5. Delaware
6. Colorado
7. Connecticut
8. Georgia
9. Idaho
10. Illinois
11. New Jersey
12. New Mexico

Feb 9: LA, NE, WA, AS, VI, ME
Feb 12: DC, MD, VA, MO, VT
Feb 19: WI, HI, MS, RI

Super Tuesday 2: Mar 5:
1. KS
2. MA
3. MN
4. NY
5. ND
6. OK
7. TN
8. UT
9. OH
10. TX
11. IN
12. PR


March 11: PA, NC
March 19: WV
March 27: KY, OR

April 3: MT, SD
April 10: CA

[NHI]

May I ask for an one day extension. My schedule (work) is getting too busy

Yes, that's fine. I'll move this to Wednesday at 11:59 pm

[NHI]

Polls:

Nevada: Caucuses (Republican)

Rudy Giuliani: 58%
Mark Sanford: 10%
Ron Paul: 10%
Newt Gingrich: 6%
Undecided: 16%

Nevada Caucuses: Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 16%
Blanche Lincoln: 13%
Howard Dean: 10%
Evan Bayh: 9%
John Kerry: 7%
Tom Vilsack: 7%
Mary Landrieu: 6%
Undecided: 30%

Michigan Primary: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 59%
Mark Sanford: 14%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Ron Paul: 5%
Undecided: 13%

Michigan Primary: Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 15%
Evan Bayh: 15%
Blanche Lincoln: 12%
Howard Dean 10%
John Kerry: 9%
Tom Vilsack: 7%
Mary Landrieu: 7%
Undecided: 25%

Florida Primary: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 56%
Mark Sanford: 15%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Ron Paul: 5%
Undecided: 15%

Florida Primary: Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 14%
May Landrieu: 10%
John Kerry: 8%
Evan Bahy: 8%
Howard Dean: 8%
Tom Vilsack: 7%
Undecided: 26%

[NHI]

Round 3: September 15-21, 2007

The debates are over and the Presidential candidates on both the Democratic and Republican side continue to make their case to voters, crisscrossing the nation, visiting all the early primary states. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the frontrunner, though some have declared her a fragile frontrunner. In most polls she either ties Blanche Lincoln, or leads her by a point or two. Clinton, the longtime favorite has the money and campaign infrastructure, but it still remains to be seen if it will translate into votes.

Clinton, was the favorite four years ago, before campaign missteps and former President Bill Clinton's health sidelined her campaign. She is the favorite this time around, but has yet to pull away with the nomination. Plus, with Senator Evan Bayh and Governor Howard Dean continuing to make their case in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire it is easy to see that Clinton may face some tough competition.

Senator Blanche Lincoln, the 2004 Vice Presidential Nominee appears to be getting a second look. Coupled by a strong debate performance and lack of a clear frontrunner, Lincoln is emerging as a possible alternative to Hillary Clinton. Hailing from Arkansas, she puts much of the south in play, which may help the Democratic ticket in what is expected to be a messy general election.

Evan Bayh and Howard Dean are the two emerging challengers. Both young and competitive, they are attracting support, mainly from young people and are playing strong in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire; two states crucial to either their success or failure as candidates. Both have delivered strong debate performances and have raised considerable amounts of money, instantly putting them into the top tier of candidates.

John Kerry and Mary Landrieu have struggled throughout the primary to define themselves and their campaign message. With such large personalities like Clinton and Dean in the race, both seem to be getting lost in the shuffle. However, John Kerry may have reason to celebrate, his strong debate performance in New Hampshire, as well as his focus on stumping in the Granite State, has made him a candidate to watch. For Mary Landrieu, she has the task of separating herself from Clinton and Lincoln and finding her own voice. She did deliver a strong debate performance, receiving a great round of applause for her answer on funding public education. Landrieu could be a surprise candidate. States like Iowa and South Carolina will prove a real test for her candidacy.

The dark horse in this race by all estimations is Tom Vilsack. The former Iowa Governor is leading in his home state, boosted by the fact that he is running as a favorite son, but some pundits believe there maybe more to Vilsack and his campaign then simply a win in Iowa. He unveiled his energy plan, (the first candidate to do so) and it was well received. Along with the fact he is leading in Iowa, a blowout in the first caucus could set his campaign up on the road to victory. The test is whether or not he has regional appeal or not.

On the Republican side, President Rudy Giuliani continues to be successful at what some have called 'see no evil, hear no evil' strategy. He has refused to acknowledge his political opponents, namely chief rival Mark Sanford. Sanford is running far ahead of other challengers, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul and looks to be the most serious 'threat' to Giuliani. While the President still leads by double digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his lead in South Carolina has dropped down to only four points, though most pundits believe Sanford will need to either win Iowa or beat expectation.

"He has to catch lightning in a bottle if he wants to beat Giuliani, or I should say even come close. Now there is a history of primary challengers doing well against incumbents. Ronald Reagan in 1976, Ted Kennedy in 1980. I think Sanford has the potential to be as successful as either one. First he's a Governor, second he's locked up conservative support, and he's competitive. He's playing for Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond." -- Tom Rath, NH political operative.

In terms of the general election, most pundits say it's far too early to declare victory for any candidate, though Giuliani continues to lead his Democratic rivals, even with the presence of third party candidates. Currently, he sits on a 52 percent approval rating.

Iowa Caucuses Poll: Democrat (Vilsack +2)

Tom Vilsack: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 15%
Hillary Clinton: 14%
Howard Dean: 14%
Evan Bayh: 14%
Mary Landrieu: 9%
John Kerry: 8%
Undecided: 9%

Iowa Caucus Poll: Republican (Giuliani +29)

Rudy Giuliani: 52%
Mark Sanford: 23%
Newt Gingrich: 11%
Ron Paul: 5%
Undecided: 9%

More polls up later.

This round will close on Sunday at 11:59 pm.

I'd like to gauge thoughts on after this round moving the game to late November/mid December? I'd have another debate as well.  

[NHI]

I think once we get through all of September, jumping to late November would be a good idea. I also agree with badgate that we should post what we did during that interval so you can adjust the polls accordingly once we skip to then.

Sounds like a great plan.

[NHI]

CAn we get national polls, New Hampshire, and Favorables of the candidates?

Could you also do a primary matchup with just Giuliani and Sanford?

Yes, and yes.
Sorry for the delay again. Been having a some computer issues. Should be resolved.
Polls will be by this evening.

[NHI]

New Hampshire Primary Poll: (Clinton +2)

Hillary Clinton: 15%
Howard Dean: 15%
John Kerry: 15%
Evan Bayh: 13%
Blanche Lincoln: 11%
Mary Landrieu: 9%
Tom Vilsack: 7%
Undecided: 15%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: September 2007 (Giuliani +44)

Rudy Giuliani: 60%
Mark Sanford: 16%
Ron Paul: 7%
Newt Gingrich: 5%
Undecided: 12%

South Carolina Poll: Democratic Primary (Lincoln +1)

Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Mary Landrieu: 16%
Hillary Clinton: 16%
Evan Bayh: 13%
Tom Vilsack: 9%
Howard Dean: 7%
John Kerry: 7%
Undecided: 15%

South Carolina Poll: (Giuliani +4)

Rudy Giuliani: 46%
Mark Sanford: 42%
Newt Gingrich: 4%
Ron Paul: 1%
Undecided: 7%

Favorable/Unfavorable Opinion: Candidates

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton:
Favorable: 48%
Unfavorable: 42%
No Opinion/Undecided: 10%

Blanche Lincoln:
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 40%
No Opinion/Undecided: 14%

John Kerry:
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 38%
No Opinion/Undecided: 13%

Evan Bayh:
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 35%
No Opinion/Undecided: 19%

Howard Dean:
Favorable: 43%
Unfavorable: 33%
No Opinion/Undecided: 22%

Mary Landrieu:
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 37%
No Opinion/Undecided: 17%

Tom Vilsack:
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 29%
No Opinion/Undecided: 25%

Republicans:

Rudy Giuliani:
Favorable: 52%
Unfavorable: 43%
No Opinion/Undecided: 5%

Mark Sanford:
Favorable: 43%
Unfavorable: 29%
No Opinion/Undecided: 28%

Newt Gingrich:
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable: 41%
No Opinion/Undecided: 20%

Ron Paul:
Favorable: 45%
Unfavorable: 35%
No Opinion/Undecided: 20%

General Election Polls: Two-Way Race

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+6)

(D) Hillary Clinton: 45%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+7)

(D) Blanche Lincoln: 45%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 53% (+9)

(D) Evan Bayh: 44%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+8)

(D) John Kerry: 44%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 55% (+15)

(D) Howard Dean: 40%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+11)

(D) Tom Vilsack: 41%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 53% (+10)

(D) Mary Landrieu: 43%

General Election: Multiple Candidate Poll

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 29% (+1)

(D) Hillary Clinton: 28%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 26%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 5%
(G) Ralph Nader: 3%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 29% (+2)

(D) Blanche Lincoln: 27%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 26%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 6%
(G) Ralph Nader: 3%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 27% (+1)

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 26%

(D) John Kerry: 24%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 8%
(G) Ralph Nader: 5%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 27%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 27%

(D) Howard Dean: 24%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 9%
(G) Ralph Nader: 4%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 27% (+1)

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 26%

(D) Evan Bayh: 25%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 8%
(G) Ralph Nader: 5%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 28% (+2)

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 26%

(D) Mary Landrieu: 24%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 9%
(G) Ralph Nader: 5%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 28% (+2)

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 26%

(D) Tom Vilsack: 24%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 9%
(G) Ralph Nader: 6%

----------------------------

Republican Primary: Two-Way Race (Giuliani +30)

Rudy Giuliani: 56%
Mark Sanford: 26%
Undecided: 18%

---------------------------

General Election Poll: (Sanford v. Clinton)

(D) Hillary Clinton: 47%

(R) Mark Sanford: 45%

---------------------------

Generic Republican v. Democrat Poll

Republican: 49%

Democrat: 44%

------------------------

[NHI]

Behind Kerry? I was in New Hampshire all week!

I don't wanna sound like a loser, but...

OOC; To be fair, I do think Kerry/Dean should start in the lead in New Hampshire, or a three-way tie with Clinton, given they live right next door...

I've redone the numbers; I think these should be more on par...

[NHI]

Replace The Electoral College?
Growing number of Americans favor abolishing the current system

Almost forty-years ago Congress came extremely close to abolishing the electoral college and today there are whispers on Capitol Hill of taking up the matter again.

In what was known as the Bayh-Celler Amendment, sponsored by then Representative Emmanuel Celler (D-NY) and then Senator Birch Bayh (D-IN). The amendment came close to abolishing the electoral college that would have instituted a popular vote system. Simply put, the which ever pair of candidates received the highest votes would become President and Vice President. The proposed bill came out of the 1968 election, in which Richard Nixon narrowly defeated Hubert Humphrey. The measure never made it out of Congress, but the idea has been floated around for decades since. In 2000, after George W. Bush narrowly won the Presidency over Vice President Al Gore, some Democrats called for an end to the electoral college, in favor of a popular vote system, but nothing came of it.

However, with the increased presence of third party candidates it does seem like elections are becoming tighter. Strangely enough, George H.W. Bush was the last presidential candidate to garner a 50 percent majority in the popular vote, while every candidate since has won with a plurality in the popular vote. In 2004 Rudy Giuliani won the Presidency with 36 percent of the vote in a four man race.

Polls indicate most Americans are at the very least interested in replacing the electoral college system. 48 percent of Americans favor a national popular vote system, with 44 percent favoring the current system.

[NHI]

Republican Primary: Two-Way Race Poll

Iowa Caucuses: Poll (Giuliani +20)

Rudy Giuliani: 52%
Mark Sanford: 32%
Undecided: 16%

New Hampshire: Poll (Giuliani +33)

Rudy Giuliani: 61%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 11%

South Carolina: Poll (Giuliani +1)

Rudy Giuliani: 46%
Mark Sanford: 45%

[NHI]

Could we get one more day on this?

Yes, if all are in agreement I'm fine with it.

[NHI]

I'll end the round at 11:59 pm est tonight.

[NHI]

Round 4: September 22-30, 2007

DEAN-MENTUM!?

The Former Vermont Governor is proving to be more than a dark horse in the 2008 Democratic Primary, so are calling him the party's knight in shining armor. The little-known governor from a state with a little over half-a million people is coming on strong in the race for the Democratic nomination, passing longtime frontrunners Blanche Lincoln and Hillary Clinton in the battleground states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

In Iowa Dean is now leading the pack, with Blanche Lincoln in second. Dean has also and has pulled away of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, who has now slipped to third behind Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Much credit to Dean's success continues to be his fundraising prowess and campaign message which is drawing new voters into the process, including college aged students, who while visible in 2004 did not play as an active role in the Biden-Giuliani race. Dean's campaign seems to be banking on turning out their support in 2008.D Dean, also earned the endorsement of Tom Vilsack, now making Iowa a competitive battleground heading into the caucuses.

Blanche Lincoln continues to see her numbers remain consistent. A recent internal campaign poll showed her beating possible Republican nominee Mark Sanford in a hypothetical match up 45 to 44 percent. Lincoln has also rolled out a new set of endorsements. Some pundits speculate the possibility of the race coming down to a Lincoln-Dean match up. Both are proving to be excellent fundraisers and are building the campaign infrastructure needed. If 2004 is any indication it is likely to be a long race. Senator Lincoln, herself even said she doesn't expect the nomination to be a coronation after three contests.

Evan Bayh remains a candidate to watch. He is tied for third with Clinton in Iowa and is creeping up in New Hampshire as well. In a potential Dean-Lincoln fight he could play a spoiler at worst, or a dark horse at best. Only time will tell as the campaign moves closer towards Iowa.

John Kerry remains a candidate who, while on the back burner. He is polling second in New Hampshire behind Dean and continues to devout his energy into the first in the nation primary, which if won or strong finished will serve as a springboard for future primaries.

Mary Landrieu is still in the race, but has yet to have a breakout moment. She is a polling in low double digits now in Iowa, but still has a way to go. She does seem to be focusing on the southern states, which is largely her base, where if successful this will be a two-person race with Blanche Lincoln. Much of Landrieu's success depends on her performance in Iowa. Currently, she is in a three-way tie with Hillary Clinton and Evan Bayh for third place in Iowa.

Hillary Clinton is still a factor in this race, the questions are who big or how much of a factor. She is now tied for third in Iowa and has dipped to third in New Hampshire, the state many have seen as her firewall. She still has the resources to compete and can remain in the race for a the long haul, but a loss or poor showing in either state will certainly not help her campaign. Many believe Clinton needs to jump start her primary campaign. She polls the best against Giuliani and easily defeats Sanford, but more needs to be done to rally primary voters to her cause.

Ralph Nader is making himself know this week, unveiling a new list of supporters and building his campaign infrastructure. He's running a new ad in fifteen states, some in which Dennis Kucinich carried in 2004. It's still a long way till next November, but Nader is taking the right steps to build the campaign which will be needed to compete on the level Kucinich did four years ago.

Mark Sanford, the strongest of President Giuliani's challengers in playing hard for both Iowa and South Carolina, the two places where he believes he can either beat the President or deliver a strong performance a la Pat Buchanan in 1992. Polls continue to show Giuliani leading Sanford by healthy margins, as well as the President topping his Democratic rivals. Giuliani's strategy continues to be working and most pundits fully expect the President to easily dismiss his challengers and be renominated in St. Paul next August.

Though Mark Sanford continues to make his case to voters, even appearing at a joint-bipartisan debate forum with Governor Dean. The forum was an opportunity for the candidates to contrast their difference and appeal to primary voters.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: September 2007

Hillary Clinton: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Howard Dean: 17%
Evan Bayh: 14%
John Kerry: 11%
Mary Landrieu: 10%
Undecided: 14%

Iowa Caucuses Democratic Preference Poll: September 2007

Howard Dean: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 15%
Evan Bayh: 14%
Hillary Clinton: 14%
Mary Landrieu: 14%
John Kerry: 10%
Undecided: 15%

New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: September 2007

Howard Dean: 19%
John Kerry: 16%
Hillary Clinton: 14%
Evan Bayh: 13%
Blanche Lincoln: 12%
Mary Landrieu: 10%
Undecided: 24%

Democratic South Carolina Primary Preference Poll: September 2007

Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Mary Landrieu: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 13%
Evan Bayh: 13%
Howard Dean: 12%
John Kerry: 10
Undecided: 15%

Republican Iowa Caucuses Preference Poll: September 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 52%
Mark Sanford: 26%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Undecided: 13%

Republican New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: September 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 64%
Mark Sanford: 19%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Undecided: 8%

Republican South Carolina Primary Preference Poll: September 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 49%
Mark Sanford: 42%
Newt Gingrich: 4%
Undecided: 5%

This Round will Close on Saturday @ 11:59 pm est.
After this round the game will move to November 25 and carry on from there. In the interval since there will no round through October and most November, before the start please update what the campaigns have been doing during those eight weeks; in order to reflect polling for Round 5.

Round 5 will also begin with a debate, and as we get closer to January I will be doing a profile article on each of the candidates for the Democratic and Republican Primaries.

Good luck and again great job everyone!

[NHI]

Vilsack did drop out, that change needs to be made (and added to Deans lead )

Corrected. I accidentally left him in the NH one.

[NHI]

Nevada Caucuses Poll: Democrats

Howard Dean: 19%
Evan Bayh: 16%
Hillary Clinton: 14%
Blanche Lincoln: 14%
John Kerry: 10%
Mary Landrieu: 9%
Undecided: 18%

Nevada Caucuses Poll: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 60%
Mark Sanford: 19%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Undecided: 12%

Michigan Primary Poll: Democrats

Evan Bayh: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 16%
Blanche Lincoln: 14%
Howard Dean: 14%
John Kerry: 11%
Mary Landrieu: 10%
Undecided: 17%

Michigan Primary Poll: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 63%
Mark Sanford: 19%
Newt Gingrich: 8%
Undecided: 10%

[NHI]

OOC: I'm sorry, but why is NYE getting away with posting NINE endorsements?

After this round the game jumps ahead to November, so I will amend the endorsement requests.

Typically 5 total (e.g. 3 people, two orgs or 5 people..., etc)

I will allow everyone the opportunity to have nine total endorsements heading into this round.
It can be nine people, or six people and three orgs. You choose, but everyone gets nine.

After we move to November it will go back to the regular five endorsements

[NHI]

Florida: Democrats

Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Mary Landrieu: 16%
Howard Dean: 14%
Hillary Clinton: 13%
Evan Bayh: 13%
John Kerry: 11%
Undecided: 14%

Florida: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 55%
Mark Sanford: 21%
Newt Gingrich: 10%
Undecided: 14%

General Election: Two-man race Giuliani v Bayh

Rudy Giuliani: 50%

Evan Bayh: 44%

[NHI]

I will just do it, anyway, can we extend this for one day?

Yes, no problem.

Game close moved to Sunday: 6:00 pm EST

[NHI]

√ Direct Election Gaining Ground

The way Americans elect their Presidents may be changed, and perhaps sooner rather than later. A measure gaining ground in the House of Representatives, that would abolish the Electoral College System, replacing it with a direct election by popular vote. Simply put, the ticket which received the most votes would become President and Vice President of the United States. The measure has a long way to go, first leaving committee, and making it to the floor for a vote.

The force driving effort is the increased narrowness of US election. The past two have been narrowly decided both in electoral and popular vote, the proponents of the bill say, plus with the increased presence of third party candidates this new system would make sense, instead of a deadlocked election being decided in the House. If the measure were to ultimately be successful, analyst expect it would take effect at the very earliest in 2012.

Gallup Polling: Party ID Only

Republican: 33%
Democrat: 29%
Independent: 15%
Libertarian: 11%
Green Party: 4%
Undecided: 8%

[NHI]

I'll hold off until 11:59 pm EST tonight, in case there are any last minute postings.

[NHI]

I'll hold off until 11:59 pm EST tonight, in case there are any last minute postings.

Please push it back to tomorrow. PLEASE.

We already pushed it back once.

But basically nobody is ready, and I have a geology exam I need to be studying for, so yeah, another day, please.

Unless we can just post the rest of our "8 Week" schedule later, then I'm down with it ending tonight, because that's all i really need done.

I'm ok with posting the 8 week schedule later this week.

[NHI]

Round 5: November 25-December 1, 2007

Lincoln, Bayh & Dean: The Contenders in Iowa

Evan Bayh and Howard Dean -- the two dark horses for the Democratic nomination appear now to be the men to beat, with the Iowa Caucuses looking to be a major test in the long term viability of both candidates. Dean, who won the endorsement of Tom Vilsack is still holding onto his lead in the caucuses, with a little more than month to go before the big vote. In New Hampshire, Dean continues to lead, though John Kerry is running second and holding strong in the primary state. Expect believe New Hampshire will come down to a coin toss between Dean and Kerry, with Iowa taking a large role than expected.

Evan Bayh is continuing to build on his momentum, with a new line of endorsement and TV ads in the critical first state. Bayh is now polling second in the state and is playing hard to topple Dean, who has spent a great deal of time and money in the state. The upcoming debate will be one of his last chances to sway Iowa voters.

Former Vice Presidential nominee and Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is polling third in Iowa and should not be counted out. She is playing hard in the primary state and believes a win there will launch her on the path to the nomination. The upcoming debates will be crucial to her success. She is polling third in Iowa a state many believe is where he hopes depend. For her  growing tightness between Dean and Bayh may help her squeak by. She has also earned the endorsement of fellow Senator and now former candidate Mary Landrieu. With Landrieu's departure Lincoln is the sole southern candidate in the race and has amassed some big leagues in South Carolin and Florida, and is running strong and second in some states as well.

John Kerry is focusing on New Hampshire, as is Hillary Clinton. Clinton remains a fighter in this race, tied for second in New Hampshire with John Kerry and fighting hard against Howard Dean, with the hopes of displacing him in the state. Clinton is also making a push for Iowa and looking beyond the two early states, visiting Florida and building a campaign structure there.

Mary Landrieu looks to be a factor in South Carolina, but has yet to catch fire, like her rivals Bayh and Dean. Like with Bayh the debates are going to be critical to her success or failure in the caucus state. Her and Lincoln are tied for first in the South Carolina primary, and in Florida Lincoln leads her by three.

In terms of the Republican Primary, President Giuliani continues to lead Governor Mark Sanford, though Sanford has seen his numbers climb in both Iowa and South Carolina, but most pundits believe he still faces an uphill battle against the President. Sanford did receive the endorsement of Newt Gingrich, who ended his bid for President. Now that it is truly a two-man race, pundits will wait to see if the numbers start to move.

In terms of the third party candidates, Ralph Nader, the likely Green Party candidate continues to build up his campaign infrastructure, by running campaign ads in critical swing states and building on the foundation laid by Dennis Kucinich in 2004. Early polling for November, even with the additional candidates in the race still puts Giuliani ahead, albeit with a narrow lead.

In the final weeks before the primaries and caucuses, two debates remain. A Democratic and Republican forum. All Democratic candidates are expected to appear, while on the GOP side, President Giuliani is likely not to participate, though it is fully expected Governor Sanford will appear in some fashion. The first in Iowa, taking place on December 1st in Ames, Iowa. The second in late December at St. Anselm's College in Manchester, NH.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: November 2004

Howard Dean: 19%
Evan Bayh: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Hillary Clinton: 15%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 19%

Republican Primary Preference Poll: November 2004

Rudy Giuliani: 61%
Mark Sanford: 27%
Undecided: 12%

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Preference Poll: November 2007

Howard Dean: 22%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 16%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 11%

Iowa Republican Caucuses Preference Poll: November 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 59%
Mark Sanford: 32%
Undecided: 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Preference Poll: November 2007

Howard Dean: 20%
John Kerry: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
Evan Bayh: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Undecided:  10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary Preference Poll: November 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 65%
Mark Sanford: 27%
Undecided: 8%

Nevada Democratic Caucuses Preference Poll: November 2007

Howard Dean: 19%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 16%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 15%

Nevada Republican Caucuses Preference Poll: November 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 67%
Mark Sanford: 25%
Undecided: 8%

South Carolina Democratic Primary Preference Poll: November 2007

Blanche Lincoln: 27%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Evan Bayh: 17%
Howard Dean: 15%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 12%

South Carolina Republican Primary Preference Poll: November 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 50%
Mark Sanford: 43%
Undecided: 7%

Michigan Democratic Primary Poll: Preference Poll: November 2007

Evan Bayh: 21%
Howard Dean: 18%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 15%
John Kerry: 12%
Undecided: 16%

Michigan Republican Primary Poll: November 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 69%
Mark Sanford: 26%
Undecided: 5%

Florida Democratic Primary Preference Poll: November 2007

Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Howard Dean: 15%
Evan Bayh: 15%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 13%

Florida Republican Primary Preference Poll: November 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 58%
Mark Sanford: 30%
Undecided: 12%

Democratic Primary: Debate
Live from Ames, Iowa

To All the Candidates: Each of you is running on a platform of universal healthcare in some form, specifically what will your plan entail, and assuming Republicans retain control of Congress, how will you work with them to pass the legislation?

To Hillary Clinton: Senator Clinton, Some Democrats are worrying over you ability to unite the party, given some recent polling indicates you losing ground to President Giuliani. One Democrat, who went off record said, "She's the least unelectable candidate in the field. If we nominate Hillary, we lose." How can you put at ease the concerns of many Democrats?

To Blanche Lincoln: Senator Lincoln, many democrats are calling for change in November, President Giuliani and even some of your rivals are calling on experience. What is important in this election? Change or experience?

To Evan Bayh: Senator, we've been living under No Child Left Behind for nearly eight years. Is it a success and if not how should the government be dealing with education?

To John Kerry: Senator Kerry, what distinguishes you from your fellow rivals?

To Howard Dean: Governor Dean, you've said on the stump that President Giuliani and I'm quoting here, 'has an addiction and that addiction is oil', how do you propose making America energy independent?

To All the Candidates: Should the Patriot Act be renewed?

To All the Candidates: First major action you'll take as President on Day one?

Closing Remarks:

Republican Forum:
Ames, Iowa

Topics:
Healthcare, War in Iraq/Afghanistan, the economy.

Governor Sanford, may comment on all matters.


This Round will close on Friday at 11:59 pm EST

[NHI]

Landrieu endorsed Lincoln, so I'm guessing now it'll be Lincoln-mentum.

I missed that, I'll amend the post.

[NHI]

OOC: Lincoln doesn't have an individual debate question, but Landrieu does.

In amending the post, I mistakenly deleted Lincoln's question instead of Landrieu's.
All fixed.

[NHI]

General Election Polls:

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+7)
Hillary Clinton: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+6)

Blanche Lincoln: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+8)

Evan Bahy: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+9)

Howard Dean: 43%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+7)

John Kerry: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 50% (+5)

Mark Sanford: 45%

Blanche Lincoln: 50% (+6)

Mark Sanford: 44%

Evan Bayh: 48% (+4)

Mark Sanford: 44%

Howard Dean: 47% (+2)

Mark Sanford: 45%

John Kerry: 48% (+3)

Mark Sanford: 45%

Generic Party Ballot:

Republican: 32% (+5)

Democrat: 27%

Independent: 16%
Libertarian: 7%
Green Party: 3%
Undecided: 15%