Interesting note from the latest PPP national poll: Warren’s support in the hypothetical Democratic primary matchup skews even more white and more liberal than Sanders’s support does….but it’s not as skewed towards the young.
In any case, the states where Warren would be favored to do well in the primary (if we actually want to handicap it at this ridiculously early stage) would be the states where the Democratic primary electorate has the highest share of white liberals. Though obviously it depends on who her opponents would be.
I think her coalition will be slightly different then Sanders in that she'll win over more Hillary supporters from this time who might have been inclined to support her for gender reasons or because they were just afraid of nominating someone with the Socialist label. I could potentially see someone like Booker possibly getting to her left on issues on criminal justice reform while she outflanks him on Wall Street and you'd see the current divide unfolding on the left over identity politics play out that way. Another wild card I could see though is a minority of Sanders supporters (the bernieorbust types) who would still be bitter over Warren's failure to endorse Bernie and would support someone like Tulsi Gabbard who would possibly have a spoiler effect on the left.
