Karl Rove predicts Romney victory with 279

[J. J.]

I thought Ohio Early voting actually favored Romney due to lower Obama turnout than 2008. 

It seems to be. 

[Vosem]

I thought Ohio Early voting actually favored Romney due to lower Obama turnout than 2008. 

Romney is outperforming McCain, but he will need to win by quite a bit more than McCain did on E-Day to carry the state. This is likely considering past elections, but if you believe the polls, then logically Ds that haven't voted in early voting may turn out on E-Day and keep that from happening.

But, yeah, it certainly does. It's not as obvious in OH as it is in CO, IA, and (if Mayor Hancock is correct, which may not be true) WI.

[Maxwell]

I could see it, but I feel like Ohio is still pretty distant.

[pbrower2a]

Karl Rove is a power-hungry man who wants to exercise power as it has never been exercised at the national level -- as an unelected Party Boss to whom an intractable majority is dependent.  It is a machine boss on a national scale. If this election does not give him that, then his chances at such are through.

With the urban bosses one who ran afoul could vote with his feet easily. If one found Tammany Hall intolerable one could always go to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island, Westchester County -- or upstate New York. The Daley machine in Chicago had no power in Indiana, Wisconsin, or southwestern Michigan even if its tentacles reached Springfield. With a machine boss of the type that Karl Rove wants to be, one needs a passport to get away from his power and the talent for starting life over -- or simply endure the consequences with the forced smile. If you have children you prepare them to emigrate on the assumption that being a busboy in Budapest is better than being a machinist in Milwaukee.      

Karl Rove has never sought elected office. He has never sought a cabinet or judicial post. He would settle for power as the boss of a dominant Party in a political order in which opposition is irrelevant. Without the murders that is how Stalin operated. His chance for becoming dictator runs out due to his age if Barack Obama is re-elected.  

[Cliffy]

I thought Ohio Early voting actually favored Romney due to lower Obama turnout than 2008. 

It does

[Vosem]

If you have children you prepare them to emigrate on the assumption that being a busboy in Budapest is better than being a machinist in Milwaukee.      

Karl Rove has never sought elected office. He has never sought a cabinet or judicial post. He would settle for power as the boss of a dominant Party in a political order in which opposition is irrelevant. Without the murders that is how Stalin operated. His chance for becoming dictator runs out due to his age if Barack Obama is re-elected.  

Hyperbole much?

[pbrower2a]

If you have children you prepare them to emigrate on the assumption that being a busboy in Budapest is better than being a machinist in Milwaukee.      

Karl Rove has never sought elected office. He has never sought a cabinet or judicial post. He would settle for power as the boss of a dominant Party in a political order in which opposition is irrelevant. Without the murders that is how Stalin operated. His chance for becoming dictator runs out due to his age if Barack Obama is re-elected.  

Hyperbole much?

I suggest that you consult the farewell speech of George Washington for his warning on control of government by 'factions'. Political parties then as now were unregulated and they were no better than their leadership.

[Vosem]

If you have children you prepare them to emigrate on the assumption that being a busboy in Budapest is better than being a machinist in Milwaukee.      

Karl Rove has never sought elected office. He has never sought a cabinet or judicial post. He would settle for power as the boss of a dominant Party in a political order in which opposition is irrelevant. Without the murders that is how Stalin operated. His chance for becoming dictator runs out due to his age if Barack Obama is re-elected.  

Hyperbole much?

I suggest that you consult the farewell speech of George Washington for his warning on control of government by 'factions'. Political parties then as now were unregulated and they were no better than their leadership.

The thing is, we've had parties basically continuously since then (more than 200 years), including some periods of pretty overwhelming periods of one-party rule. But we've still never had a dictatorship. We've had some pretty remarkable power-grabs (Lincoln suspended habeas corpus; Roosevelt sent Japanese to camps), but the fundamental democratic system wasn't even bruised -- because it's so remarkably ingrained. I really fail to see how Rove is any great threat, especially since it can reasonably be argued that he's past the peak of his authority, in the Bush years. But I suppose I don't have the right ideology to see the threat

[Torie]

Karl Rove is a power-hungry man who wants to exercise power as it has never been exercised at the national level -- as an unelected Party Boss to whom an intractable majority is dependent.  It is a machine boss on a national scale. If this election does not give him that, then his chances at such are through.

With the urban bosses one who ran afoul could vote with his feet easily. If one found Tammany Hall intolerable one could always go to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island, Westchester County -- or upstate New York. The Daley machine in Chicago had no power in Indiana, Wisconsin, or southwestern Michigan even if its tentacles reached Springfield. With a machine boss of the type that Karl Rove wants to be, one needs a passport to get away from his power and the talent for starting life over -- or simply endure the consequences with the forced smile. If you have children you prepare them to emigrate on the assumption that being a busboy in Budapest is better than being a machinist in Milwaukee.      

Karl Rove has never sought elected office. He has never sought a cabinet or judicial post. He would settle for power as the boss of a dominant Party in a political order in which opposition is irrelevant. Without the murders that is how Stalin operated. His chance for becoming dictator runs out due to his age if Barack Obama is re-elected.  

And there you have it! 

[Likely Voter]

What is interesting is that Rove's final 2008 map was driven by polling, but even then he gave McCain all three states which were roughly tied (NC, MO, IN), but McCain only won one of those. Rove also said in 2008 that McCain had a good chance of winning FL (Obama won by almost 3%). This time Rove is essentially doing the same thing. He says that all the sates that are coinflips (NH, VA, CO) go to the Republican because he is a Republican. But then Karl breaks his pattern essentially jumps into the 'ignore the polls' camp and and gives Romney OH.

The reason is Rove has been out soliciting tens of millions of $s from the Super Rich selling them on his '3-2-1' plan of a Romney victory (3, retake NC, IN, VA), (2, swing OH & FL), (1: pick up one other Obama 2008 state like). So he cant exactly show a map w/o OH.  He has essentially said Romney will fulfill the destiny he foresaw.

If Romney loses he can say that he was still right all along but it was Sandy's fault or Romney's bad GOTV (which was out of his hands). 

[SPQR]

How can we not believe the predictions of someone whose super PAC has spent millions and millions in the race for one side?

[milhouse24]

I thought Ohio Early voting actually favored Romney due to lower Obama turnout than 2008. 

Romney is outperforming McCain, but he will need to win by quite a bit more than McCain did on E-Day to carry the state. This is likely considering past elections, but if you believe the polls, then logically Ds that haven't voted in early voting may turn out on E-Day and keep that from happening.

But, yeah, it certainly does. It's not as obvious in OH as it is in CO, IA, and (if Mayor Hancock is correct, which may not be true) WI.

I would think it would be more likely that "Low Dem early voter turnout" will predict "Lower Dem election day turnout" 

Are the early voters also "Absentee voters" living out of state?  If that is the case, then these same missing 2012 absentee voters are just not voting or they have voted in their new state outside Ohio. 

Nonetheless, the 2012 Obama turnout in Ohio will be FAR LOWER than 2008 levels. 

If this is the case, then Romney should be able to pull out a victory in Ohio.