Greece General Discussion

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

From what I know, Papandreou is more open to a coalition because he is desperate to be in power again.

However here is the situation for Syriza: once they are in power, they face some very, very bleak decisions. About the only easy free kudos they can get is to announce inquiries into corruption in the "old regime", which many PASOK ministers were very complicit with.

As for KKE, Syriza are likelier to form an alliance with ND than those weirdos. The Communists are sort of like the "testimonial parties" of the Netherlands: they have no interest in governing or joining a coalition, they're just ... there.

[Bacon King]

If you're unaware, KKE is the last remaining old-style Stalinist party in Europe. The median age of its Politburo is in the 70s. The leadership have repeatedly denounced SYRIZA as revisionists and splitters (SYRIZA left KKE in the 90s to form a new party) and refuses to work with them in any way. A few years ago, when KKE joined with the police to beat the hell out of protestors, a lot of the people they were beating on were SYRIZA members and voters. The two do not play nice.

Those clashes took place in 2009, when ND and PASOK were still the largest two parties and no one had any idea who, if anyone, was going to break the two party system. KKE and SYRIZA were both minor parties competing with each other to see who would lead the left. That battle is over now, SYRIZA won and the dynamic is now changed.

This is currently an article on the front page of KKE's English website:

http://inter.kke.gr/en/articles/SYRIZA-the-left-reserve-force-of-capitalism/

KKE will never, under any remotely realistic circumstance, join a coalition with SYRIZA.

[Famous Mortimer]

Papandreou seems legitimately left-wing, although he's certainly a power monger as well. I am reminded of how this whole mess started, when Papandreou called for a referendum on austerity, which was basically his way of coming out against austerity at a time when that was considered politically unrealistic.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's more possible that KKE will form a coalition with Golden Dawn than with SYRIZA.
If you watch any political talk-show then you will notice that the representatives of KKE save their harshest attacks not for the government which practices austerity but for SYRIZA.

[politicus]

Ah, I had forgotten about The River. Isn't that a lot of ex-Potami and DIMAR people? I guess it's a possibility. Though I have my doubts that any of the "Serious People" parties want to attach themselves to SYRIZA. And honestly, I can see a number of people within SYRIZA not wanting to form a government. They are at the zenith of their power now. Once they become the government, they have to make a decision which will either cost them most of their votes or plunge Greece down a very scary path.

The "serious people" may not have a choice if the polls don't change their way during the campaign. The poll I showed  gives Syriza 137 seats and it's not even their best recent poll (that's 34.5%) All polls give a majority to Syriza/KKE/Golden Dawn combined making the serious people a minority and they even give Syriza/KKE a majority making the non-socialists a minority.

[politicus]

Regarding a Syriza majority they get 150 seats for 36% with 10% wasted votes, that is unlikely, but actually not completely unrealistic if ANEL drops below the threshold, as they have been in some polls.
 

[politicus]

I can't imagine how they wouldn't be needed. It would be risky to depend on The River alone.

I also think it's odd you people keep talking about SYRIZA "not wanting" PASOK. They don't want PASOK because they've been promoting austerity. If PASOK joined a SYRIZA led coalition, they wouldn't keep promoting austerity, at least not nearly as much as they do now.

SYRIZA doesn't like PASOK because of PASOK's policies. If PASOK's policies changed, SYRIZA would have no reason to keep disliking them.

PASOK carries an awful lot of bagage in the form of corruption, nepotism and clientilistic networks, It might very well be more attractive for Syriza to avoid them if possible.

[Hash]

If you're unaware, KKE is the last remaining old-style Stalinist party in Europe. The median age of its Politburo is in the 70s. The leadership have repeatedly denounced SYRIZA as revisionists and splitters (SYRIZA left KKE in the 90s to form a new party) and refuses to work with them in any way. A few years ago, when KKE joined with the police to beat the hell out of protestors, a lot of the people they were beating on were SYRIZA members and voters. The two do not play nice.

Those clashes took place in 2009, when ND and PASOK were still the largest two parties and no one had any idea who, if anyone, was going to break the two party system. KKE and SYRIZA were both minor parties competing with each other to see who would lead the left. That battle is over now, SYRIZA won and the dynamic is now changed.

You really don't know anything about Greek politics then.

[swl]

Stavros Dimas has been nominated as presidential candidate. I don't know who he is but he is also vice-president of New Democracy, so my guess is that he is not really a consensual candidate.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Former Wall Street laywer, which seems like a ripe excuse for Syriza/ANEL to reject out of hand. Honestly, ND should have nominated some fluffy charity worker - then they could have played the "oMGz Syriza is so partisan and extremist, they opposed our bunny rabbit of a candidate."

[politicus]

Yes, this is really stupid. A respected non-political figure would be the obvious move.

[politicus]

Wall Street Lawyer 1968-69
Consultant in the World Bank 1969-1975
Deputy Governor of the Hellenic Industrial Development Bank 1975-77
Deputy Minister of Economic Coordination (28 November 1977 – 10 May 1980)
Minister of Trade (10 May – 11 October 1980)
Minister without Portfolio (11 October 1980 – 21 October 1981)
Parliamentary spokesperson for the New Democracy party (October 1985 – June 1989)
Minister of Agriculture (2 July – 12 October 1989)
Minister of Agriculture (23 November 1989 – 13 February 1990)
Minister of Industry, Energy and Technology (11 April 1990 – 29 July 1991)
Secretary-General of New Democracy (1995–2000)
Senior Member of the Political Analysis Steering Committee of New Democracy (2000–2003)
Head of the New Democracy delegation to the Council of Europe (2000–2004)
EU Commissioner for the Environment (2004-2010)
Deputy Leader for ND (2010-present)
November 2011 to 17 May 2012 also Minister of Foreign Affairs

Talk about establishment,,, and 73 years old.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This might be useful if you want to understand the conundrum we're in as a country.

http://www.parapolitiki.com/2014/04/attaining-recovery-abandoning-democracy.html#sthash.Pc0s9mXi.gbpl

Attaining recovery, abandoning democracy

...

 In the name of some obscure made-in-Greece concept of “Europe” and the country’s future place in it, Greece is being ruled by a government which doesn't exactly behave in a very Εuropean way, meaning the very core of Εuropean values, such as the Εuropean acquis of the Rule of Law and Good Governance. The Greek government has been repeatedly disrespectful towards the Constitution and frequently tries to scare the people off for short-term political gain. In the name of stability, the Troika is being portrayed as the ultimate enemy, invented as such by the Greek political system in order to just make sure that Greece will not change so much that it no longer needs its old political bureaucracy.

Nowadays, more than fiscal recovery, a breath of fresh air is very much needed in the Greek political system, far away from the politicians of the past, most of them being evidently prone to corruption and clientelism. Greece should be rescued in a real European way, not in a dangerous post-soviet style of governing, which could only lead to the restoration of the old or the creation of a new system of oligarchs in the country, fated to fail, once again, in the not so distant future.

[politicus]

It looks like the government may make it after all. They got 155 seats, there are 24 Indies to court and while the leadership of ANEL and DIMAR are against it a number of their MPs are willing to break party discipline on the issue. There is a petition going round in parliament to support electing a president and apparently 172-176 MPs are behind it now, so the government only needs an additional 4-8 votes, that looks doable, but it will be close.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-greece-elect-a-new-president-of-the-republic

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-parliament-elect-dimas-for-president

The breakdown among Indies should be:

13 Yes
8 No
3 Maybe

So 168 + 4 deserters + 4 maybes (3 Indies and 1 potential deserter)

Also: "The final wild card is Golden Dawn. While it is widely assumed that the neo-fascist party will vote in lock step against the government defections from the party cannot be ruled out."

The rounds are now set to December 17, 23 and 29. So six days between each instead of the minimum five.

The opposition:

SYRIZA 71
KKE 12
Golden Dawn 16
ANEL 12
Democratic Left 10

So 121 combined.

EDIT: The petition includes a vague promise of early elections somewhere in 2015 (after completing the negotiations with the Troika and officially ending the Memorandum) and a commitment to constitutional reform incl. directly elected president (needs to be approved by two successive parliaments, so important to get it through in this one).

[Bacon King]

It will be so... amusing... if the government remains in power due to defections from Golden Dawn.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It will be so... amusing... if the government remains in power due to defections from Golden Dawn.

Even if it happens, the political cost will be immense. Golden Dawn is viewed now by the vast majority of voters as a criminal organization and nobody in their right mind wants to be associated even in a tangential way with them.

[justfollowingtheelections]

(SYRIZA left KKE in the 90s to form a new party)

This is false.  It was actually KKE who left Synaspismos.  Basically what had happened was that KKE and EAR (a left-wing party that wanted nothing to do with the USSR) allied in 1989 forming Synaspismos, hoping they could win some seats from PASOK which was in bad shape due to a banking scandal.  Synaspismos was part of a grand coalition for a few months along with ND and PASOK, until the 1990 election when ND won an outright majority.  All KKE members who felt betrayed left Synaspismos.
SYRIZA didn't exist until the '00s when SYRIZA formed a coalition with smaller left-wing parties.

Anyway, regarding this election, I suspect ND and PASOK will get the 180 votes they need.  I doubt the independent MPs are willing to lose their nice, fat salaries.
If they somehow fail to elect a president, I predict a SYRIZA/Potami government.

[politicus]

Papandreou has made a public statement about the political situation that is so critical of the government that political observers in Greece are now certain he will form a separate party if there is going to be an election.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreou-to-launch-new-party

“The unprecedented absence of the Government and the Opposition from the front of dealing with the deeper causes which led us to the crisis and to the verge of a national tragedy, both instead hiding behind anti-memorandum slogans.”

Also argues the government (and Syriza) does not "take on the entrenched clientelist interests which are the true source of the troubles rocking Greece" and ignores the "true dilemma" which concerns the transition to a "post-clientelist" Greece.

Even if Papandreou has been critical of the government for a long time it is the impression that sending out such an extremely critical and harsh statement totally denouncing the government his own party is a part of as a complete failure and doing it at this critical time means he has now decided to split from Pasok/Pasok - Democratic Alignment/the Democrats or whatever is the official name of the party at the moment

[politicus]

Some Indies considered likely or certain yes-voters have declared they will vote against Dimas and this has  led to DIMAR and ANEL closing ranks and supporting their leaderships no position. Observers now estimate that 132 will either vote no or not show up. Syriza officials claim there will be 137 no/abstain votes. Anyway, it looks like the tide has changed.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder whether a new Paprendeau outfit could hoover up the remaining PASOK people. I'd imagine he could make a decent crack at To Potami as well. (i.e. the Very Serious moderates who find the leftists unthinkable but Samaras unpalatable).

Good news for everyone: Golden Dawn has suffered a fall in the polls recently, below the resurgent To Potami and drawing parallel with both the commies and The Most Democratic Olive PASOK Tree (or whatever it's going to be called come next election)

[Bacon King]

I wonder whether a new Paprendeau outfit could hoover up the remaining PASOK people. I'd imagine he could make a decent crack at To Potami as well. (i.e. the Very Serious moderates who find the leftists unthinkable but Samaras unpalatable).

Good news for everyone: Golden Dawn has suffered a fall in the polls recently, below the resurgent To Potami and drawing parallel with both the commies and The Most Democratic Olive PASOK Tree (or whatever it's going to be called come next election)

XA falling into fourth place is a very good thing. The Greek Constitution requires the President to give the second place party a mandate to try and form a government if the largest party can't do it, and then give that mandate to the third largest if they can't do it. It would be an absolutely terrible political situation if both SYRIZA and ND fail to form a coalition with XA in third.

Just imagine- the two big parties fail, then a bunch of literal Nazis get some semblance of official recognition and three full days of maximum publicity right before a new election is inevitably called.

[Velasco]

Days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks of "major problems" if they vote in the "wrong" way. Pierre Moscovici avoided an explicit endorsement, but praised the "impressive" strides made by the government.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/12/us-greece-eurozone-juncker-idUSKBN0JQ16E20141212

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN0JU19T20141216?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Seven Golden Dawn MPs granted prison leave to attend presidential vote!

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_16/12/2014_545471

A couple of polls.

MRB (December 15)

Syriza 30,8%, ND 26.7%, To Potami 7.3%, Olive Tree (PASOK) 7%, KKE 6.4%, XA 5.7%, ANEL 3.6%, Other 10.6%.

GPO (December 15)

Syriza 28%, ND 23.1%, To Potami 6%, KKE 5.5%, PASOK 5.1%, XA 5%, ANEL 2.7%, ANTARYSIA 1,3%, LAOS 1,3%, Undecided 15.3%.

[politicus]

ANEL boss Panos Kammenos is under fire after he claimed on TV that Jewish institutions don't pay taxes.. lol ANEL.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/opposition-leader-claims-that-jews-dont-pay-taxes

And the head of the Korydallos prison parole board has allowed the seven detained Golden Dawn MPs to vote for President. How very democratic...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks of "major problems" if they vote in the "wrong" way. Pierre Moscovici avoided an explicit endorsement, but praised the "impressive" strides made by the government.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/12/us-greece-eurozone-juncker-idUSKBN0JQ16E20141212

These statements by European officials are very counterproductive. They just reinforce people's perception that our current government are tools of the EU and give credence to SYRIZA's demagoguery that Europe's conservative governments are trying to scare us in order to help their ideological brethren of ND. 

[Velasco]

Of course they are counterproductive. Every time I read hypocrite statements by the great protector of tax evaders, I feel more tempted to throw myself into the arms of demagogues. Are Samaras, Passos Coelho or Rajoy anything different from obedient pawns?