MD-Sen: Edwards vs. Van Hollen

[Emperor Charles V]

Van Hollen will get all the Democratic establishment money, a clear advantage over Edwards.

Furthermore, as historical precedent shows when the Democratic Primary field is split between a white and a black candidate, the vote is likely to break over racial lines. I can cite two historical examples of this phenomenon. First is the First House District of Indiana. When current congressman Pete Visclosky, was first elected to office in 1984 he unseated incumbent congresswoman Katie Hall, a black woman in the Democratic Primary. Hall ran twice more in the Primary but lost the Visclosky both times. What is interesting is that all three times Hall and Visclosky faced each other in the primary, Hall cracked only 30-40%, which happens to be roughly the percentage African Americans compose the 1st District's Democratic Primary Electorate! A second example is the Democratic Primary of the 1992 Illinois Senate Race which saw the Election of Carol Mosely Braun, the first (and to this date only) black woman to serve in the US Senate. It is notable she upsetted a popular incumbent Alan Dixon, a white man, in the Primary. However, she won with only a bare plurality mostly because the race was not just between Mosely Braun and Dixon but it was a three way race with another white man in the mix. Since the two white candidates split the white vote, Moseley Braun was able to win the primary without having to worry about receiving white voters and later the General Election.

So with this being said, Edwards has no chance in hell unless another white candidate jumps in. Then the situation turns itself (a la Illinois in 1992) and she becomes the favorite. Now if Elijah Cummings declares, what will just happen is the black vote is split and Van Hollen wins in an even bigger landslide. He might as well call him Senator-elect and negotiate his committee assignments.