Argentina 2013: Legislative Election, Primaries and assorted maps

[Velasco]

The Argentine legislative elections will be held on October 27, preceded by primary elections which will be held on August 11, inside the parties and electoral alliances, which are obligatory in agreement to the electoral law number 26571 that establishes the conditions in which those ones must be held, act known like Opened, Simultaneous and Obligatory Primaries (PASO).

One of the principal innovations of this electoral process is the extension of the right to vote to people aged from 16 years onwards, something that has been an object of critique from some adversaries of the President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, considering this benefits electorally to the governing Front for the Victory (FPV), which represents to the officialist Peronism aligned around the Kirchners (the deceased Néstor Kirchner and Cristina). While kirchnerismo is usually portrayed as left-wing Peronism, it's not so easy to describe, ideologically speaking, especially if we go into the provincial level (a great base of power for the officialism) and the different governors (or barons, using a terminology common in Spain to refer to territorial leaders). For example, the number two of the FPV and governor of the Buenos Aires province, Daniel Scioli, has a different ideological stance and, by the way, apparently his relationship with CFdK has cooled down and he's been ignored and not received lately in the Casa Rosada.

In these elections there will be renewed 127 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 in the Senate. Simultaneously or in next dates, several provincial elections will be held as well. Mauricio Macri has announced that the elections in the autonomous city of Buenos Aires will be held in coincidence with the legislative ones. Argentina is a federal state and every governor has the prerogative to call for elections.

The main controversy surrounding this electoral process is the judicial reform promoted by CFdK, which has provoked demonstrations in the streets of Buenos Aires and has had the merit of uniting the fragmented opposition against it. However, unlike Venezuela, ideological differences and internal disputes make impossible an united front against FPV. In any case, it exists the chance of two opposition fronts similar to the ones which stood in the 2009 Legislative Election: the center-left Civic and Social Agreement (ACyS) and the Unión-PRO, coalition which was made up with the conservative Republican Proposal and diverse organizations aligned in the Federal (dissident) Peronism. As far as I know, there's not certainty about this and the Broad Progressive Front (FAP, PS-lead alliance) is at risk of implosion, divided between whom consider an alliance with the UCR and the CC-ARI and whom consider that such alliances with representants of the 'old politic' are unacceptable and seek for agreements with Proyecto Sur and other left-wing forces.

The judicial reform has been passed by the Argentinian Chamber of Deputies:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/04/25/inenglish/1366916958_946908.html

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Following soon, several maps of the 2009 Legislative Election and the 2011 General Elections.

[Velasco]

The current composition of the Chamber of Deputies is as follows:

Frente Para la Victoria (FPV) 116 seats. Front for Victory, officialism. President: Augusto Óscar Rossi (FPV, Santa Fe).

Unión Cívica y Radical (UCR) 43 seats (UCR 40 seats + Civic Front of Catamarca 2 seats +UDESO Salta 1 seat)).  The Radical Civic Union is a center-left party which was the main and traditional alternative to Peronism until the Corralito crisis. Ideologically between social liberalism and social democracy. President: Ricardo Rodolfo Gil Lavedra (UCR, Buenos Aires City)

Federal peronism: 27 seats. (Frente Peronista: 20 seats + Unión Peronista: 3 seats + Corriente de Pensamiento Federal + Frente Peronista Federal + Partido Federal Fueguino + ? with one seat each) . The Federal Peronism is a faction of the Peronist movement opposed to the officialism. Ideologically is approx. in the center right and is specially strong in some provinces of the Cuyo region (San Luis, Mendoza) and parts of the province of Córdoba (the Justicialist governor De la Sota has been fluctuating between the dissidents and the officialism). Other figure associated with the movement, after the agrarian crisis of 2008, is the former governor of Santa Fe and F1 pilot Carlos Reutemann. President: Enrique Luis Thomas (Peronist Front, Mendoza). Felipe Carlos Solá, deputy elected for the Unión-PRO list in the province of Buenos Aires is the president of the Unión Peronista group.

Broad Progressive Front (Frente Amplio Progresista, FAP): 22 seats.
The Socialist Party (PS) has 6 seats; speaker: Juan Carlos Zabalza, Santa Fe. The Civic Front of the Cordoba province 5 seats; speaker: Ernesto Félix Martínez. Generation for a National Encounter (GEN), a socialdemocrat party based in BsAS province and lead by Margarita Stolbizer, 5 seats. Unidad Popular 5 seats; speaker Claudio Raúl Lozano (BsAS city). The Free of the South Movement holds an additional seat (Victoria Donda, BsAs province).

Propuesta Federal (PRO and allies): 13 seats. Republican Proposal (PRO) is a liberal-conservative party lead by Mauricio Macri, Chief of the Government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires. Strong in the capital but almost non-existent outside. PRO holds 11 seats. The Democratic Party of Mendoza has another 2 seats.

Civic Front of Santiago (FCS): 7 seats. It's a provincial party that used to be aligned with the Radicals K, i.e., members of the Civic Radical Union which supported the Kirchners. The main figure of this group was the former Vice President and ex-Governor of Mendoza, Julio César Cobos, until the agrarian crisis of 2008. The FCS stands as a firm ally of the officialism and is absolutely hegemonic in the Santiago del Estero province. All the deputies elected in 2009 and 2011 belong to FCS.

Coalición Cívica-ARI: 6 seats. The remainder of the 2007 Civic Coalition, which included the Socialist Party and came second in the presidential race, is this party founded by Elisa Carrió as Support for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI). Carrió is a former deputy of the UCR and was also candidate in the 2003 and presidential elections. It's a center-left party, though Carrió holds some socially conservative views on issues like abortion. Patricia Bullrich, elected in 2011 in the Civic Coalition list (BsAS city), stands alone ascribed to the center-right Unión por Todos. President: Alfonso Prat Gay (CC-ARI, BsAS city).

Nuevo Encuentro: 5 seats. New Encounter is the party of Martín Sabbatella, mayor of Morón, in the Greater Buenos Aires, between 1999 and 2009. It's a progressive, socialdemocrat and also nationalist party which nowadays stands with the officialism. In the parliamentary bloc stands Carlos Heller (FPV head of list in 2009 for BsAS City). In 2009, allied with the Free of the South Movement and other parties, won 2 seats in the Buenos Aires province. Sabbatella supports CFdK at national level, but NE stands as an independent provincial force. President: Carlos Salomón Heller (BsAS city).

Proyecto Sur: 3 seats. Project South is a left-wing organization self described as a "political, social and cultural" movement lead by the filmmaker Fernando Pino Solanas. It was the big surprise in the 2009 Legislative election in the capital, coming second in Buenos Aires City behind the Mauricio Macri's PRO. Fairly supportive of Hugo Chavez and of nationalizations in strategic sectors. There were talks between the Solana's party and other left-wing organizations prior to the foundation of the Broad Progressive Front but finally Project South didn't join the coalition.

Movimiento Popular Neuquino: 3 seats. Another provincial party, also allied with officialism, which main figure was the former Governor Felipe Sapag (and his familiar clan).

With 2 seats each: the Justicialist Party of La Pampa (officialism) and Córdoba Federal.

Other small parties -of which I am not sure of their position with regard to the principal blocks- with a single seat complete the Chamber of Deputies until the 257 total.

The quorum (majority) is at 129 seats. The qualified majority which might allow Constitutional reforms is at 172 seats.

The composition of the Senate (72 members) is:

FPV and allies: 38 seats; UCR 17; Dissident Peronism 9 seats; Broad Progressive Front (FAP) 4 seats and other 4 members which sometimes are aligned with the officialism.

[Velasco]

2009 Legislative Election, leading parties and alliances.



I've spent some time in trying to calculate the global result of the 2009 legislative election in relation with the three principal blocks that were competing: the Front for Victory plus the officialist Justicialist Party and the allied provincial forces, the center left Civic and Social Agreement and the UCR, CC-ARI, PS and Frente Cívico (Córdoba) lists, and the alliance between the PRO and the Federal Peronism.

The results that I have for the Chamber of Deputies differ a bit from those that I have found in pages like University of Georgetown (mentioning Clarín newspaper) or psephos. I might be wrong placing some forces in the corresponding column of my Excel spreadsheet. The global percentages are approximate and the actual result may change a few decimals, because I have not included several provincial forces without representation, on not having been sure of their alignment. However, I will make later a brief summary of results by province.

FPV and allies: 30.1% and 46 seats. The Front for Victory and the provincial branches of the Justicialist Party aligned with the officialism won 39 seats with 27.6% of the vote, while the allied provincial parties won 7 seats: 3 the Civic Front of Santiago (FCS), 2 the Front for the Renewal of Concord (FRC, Misiones) and 2 the Neuquen People's Movement.

Civic and Social Agreement, UCR and Frente Cívico: 29.3% and 41 seats. UCR, PS and CC-ARI ran in their own in several provinces, though only the Civic Radical Union was successful in gaining seats in this way. There was a tight contest between UCR and the Civic Front in the Cordoba province: UCR won the election for the Chamber of Deputies and Frente Cívico the Senate race (see map above).

Unión-PRO + Federal Peronism: 26.3% and 34 seats. Including Unión-PRO lists in Buenos Aires and other provinces and several provincial lists like Santa Fe Federal or Unión por Córdoba.

Finally, Proyecto Sur and Nuevo Encuentro won 6 seats with the 4,37% of the vote, only including the Pino Solanas' list in BsAS city (4 seats) and the New Encounter list in BsAS province (2 seats). The summatory of the several left-wing candidacies may reach or overcome the 6%.

The Senate election is easier to calculate. The Civic and Social Agreement, UCR and the Civic Front of Cordoba (Luis Juez) won 12 seats, the FPV and the party-liner Peronism 8 seats, the Santa Fe Federal list (Carlos Reutemann) 2 seats and Frente de Todos (Corrientes, includes PRO) other 2 seats.

[batmacumba]

Nice posts!
It seems that, finally, our brothers parties are becoming more clear, in a right/left divide, with socialists finally coming to the mainstream. Same perception?

[Velasco]

As for the socialists yes, they're in the mainstream, though this is not something new. The Socialist Party made a coalition with the centrist Elisa Carrió in the 2007 presidential and what Hermes Binner (PS leader) wanted to achieve in 2011 was a broad center-left coalition similar to the Uruguay's governing Frente Amplio Progresista. Binner now states that he wants the broadest coalition possible for the legislative election. This is not bad, in my view, and it makes distinctions clearer. PS is a social democratic force and other groups like Proyecto Sur, Nuevo Encuentro and a broad sector inside the FPV represent another and more nationalistic type of left, considering that Solanas and PSur are extremely critic with CFdK and officialism. There are people inside the Civic coalition seeking for an anti-corruption front with Pino Solanas, regardless ideological differences. Macri, on the other hand, states that he wants to see socialists, UCR and CC-ARI forming an united front, cause their views are "pretty similar" in many aspects and more nearby to officialism than to his PRO. FAP and UCR don't want alliances with Macri by any means. Inside the CC and the FAP there are many people distrusting UCR and 'old politics' (De la Rúa) and at local level there's a sort of entente cordiale between Radicals and PRO. De Narváez, the Unión-PRO head of list in the 2009 Legislative and candidate in the 2007 Gubernatorial election in BsAS province, ran again against Scioli in 2011 leading the UDESO -the UCR lead coalition- candidacy. There's still a lot of confusion -or at least I see the signals incredibly confusing- and in future political alliances it seems that factionalism and personalisms will play a great role, probably (still) more important than ideological divides.

[Velasco]

2009 Legislative Election (continues):

The outcome of this election was conditioned by the agrarian crisis of the previous year, unleashed as a consequence of the Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's government decision of raising the export rates of soybeans and sunflower. The government was trying to increase the funds for social programs and to stimulate cereal crops as corn and wheat for internal consumption -with the aim of lowering the food prices- instead of export crops like the soybean (transgenic varieties experienced a spectacular growth in Argentina). Several employers organizations started a campaign against that measure. Farmers were also restless with the high export duties and a nationwide lockout started, with blockades to road accesses. The conflict lasted between March and July of 2008, when finally the raise of the export rates was repealed by the government.

The conflict was politicized immediately; the government and its allies accused the rural leaders, the former president Duhalde and the Clarín media group of looking for the fall of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Even Elisa Carrió, who was the main rival of CFdK in the 2007 Presidential Election, raised her accusing finger against the vice-president Julio César Cobos, the UCR and Duhalde, labelling them as conspirators. The crisis provoked the break of relations between CFdK and her vice-president, likewise several Peronist provincial leaders got free of the party-liners.

On the following year, the government decided to anticipate the call for the election from October to June, making it coincide with the elections in the city of Buenos Aires (local deputies), also anticipated by Mauricio Macri. In this city Gabiela Michetti, the Deputy of the Chief of the Government, was placed as the PRO head of list. The other top candidates were the economist Alfonso Prat Gay (CC-ARI) for the Civic and Social Agreement, Carlos Salomón Heller for the Front for Victory and and Pino Solanas, the outsider, for Proyecto Sur. The Socialist Party ran alone in the federal capital and Aníbal Ibarra, former Chief of Government, stood his candidacy.

Previous polls suggested a victory of the PRO, followed by the Civic and Social Agreement, the FPV and Solanas. However, the filmmaker raised his popularity after a televised debate and the final outcome placed him in the second place.

Results in the city of Buenos Aires by ward:



The PRO got 31.19% of the vote wining 5 seats; Proyecto Sur got 24.29% winning 4 seats; Civic and Social Agreement got 19.14% winning 3 seats and the FPV got 11.61% wiining 1 seat. Aníbal Ibarra got 3.16% and the Socialist Party 2.36%.

In the local elections the PRO won 13 seats (31.3%), Proyecto Sur 8 seats (23.7%), ACyS 6 seats (18.75%), FPV 4 seats (11.47%) and Diálogo por la Ciudad (Aníbal Ibarra) 1 seat (3.12%).

The data for the BsAS quarters is taken from the Andy Tow Atlas, which is probably the best page related with elections in Argentina:

http://andy.towsa.com/totalpais/index.html

(...)

[Velasco]

(...)

Though outcome was disastrous for the officialism in Buenos Aires City, the electoral behavior of this district always has been adverse for the official branches of the Peronism, from the reestablishment of the democracy until the national elections of 2011. On the other hand, though the Republican Proposal (PRO) came first and increased its support with regard to the previous legislative elections, the result cannot be considered as a round success nor is comparable to Macri's landslides in the elections for the Chief of Government. The actual victor was Pino Solanas, who obtained a spectacular result without money for campaigning nor infrastructure, whereas for the center-left opposition the result was rather disappointing.

The actual test was the Buenos Aires province, where the FPV made a strong wager, placing the former president Néstor Kirchner and the BsAS governor Daniel Scioli on the top of the officialist list, in a repetiton of the 2003 pesidential ticket. Kirchner and Scioli were nominal candidates, that is to say, it was not hoping from them that they were occupying their seats in the Chamber of Deputies. Both candidacies were contested at the Courts by the opposition forces without success

Against the powerful couple, the Unión-PRO alliance placed Francisco de Narváez, who was the Scioli's Unión-PRO challenger in the 2007 Gubernatorial Election, with Jorge Macri* as running mate, coming third with 14.9% of the vote. De Narváez is a businessman and politician of Colombian origin (his grandfather, Karel Steuer, was Czech), member of the Justicialist Party (Federal Peronist branch) and leader of the center-right Unión Celeste y Blanco, party which was part of the UDESO (Union for the Social Development) alliance in the 2011 elections. *On a side note, Jorge Macri is a Mauricio Macri's cousin and mayor of Vicente López, in the Greater Buenos Aires.

The Civic and Social Agreement placed Margarita Stolbizer, also Scioli's challenger in 2007 for the Civic Coalition, coming second with 16.59%. Stolbizer is a lawyer, fairly active on issues related with Human and Women's rights. She was born in Morón, greater BsAS, and leads the GEN party, which is nowadays the stronger party inside the FAP alliance in the province. She was member of the UCR until the 2007 Presidential Election, when she left the party -due to her opposition to back Roberto Lavagna's candidacy- and founded her own social democratic force. In the second place of the list was Ricardo Alfonsín (UCR), son of Raúl Alfonsín (president between 1983 and 1989), and the UDESO presidential candidate in 2011.

Finally Martín Sabbatella stood for the New Encounter alliance. Sabbatella was a communist militant in his youth. In 1999 he won the mayoralty of Morón as a candidate of the Alliance UCR-FREPASO, later he founded his own local party, called Nuevo Morón. He resigned after the election to occupy his seat in the Chamber, but re assumed months later.

Results in Buenos Aires province by municipality (I uploaded the map days ago, but I have corrected some little flaws, so this is the 2.0 version)



Unión-PRO got 34.68% of the vote winning 13 seats; Front for Victory 32.18% winning 12 seats; Civic and Social Agreement 21.46% winning 8 seats and New Encounter 5.53% winning 2 seats.

(...)

[Velasco]

Results in the Greater Buenos Aires:



The province of Buenos Aires represents the 38 % of the Argentine census. 2/3 of the provincial population concentrate in the agglomeration around Buenos Aires City, representing almost 1/4 of the national census. This area registers a strong support to the official Peronism that the Kirchner represent. Nevertheless, in these legislative elections, the candidate of the Union-PRO managed to attract to a significant part of these voters.

A survey* made soon after the electoral day on the voters' flow between the 2007 Presidential Election  and the 2009 Legislative suggested the following:

Among CFdK's voters in 2007, 53 % voted in the 2009 Legislative for her husband, Néstor Kirchner, while 25 % voted for the Unión-PRO list (Francisco de Narváez), 12 % for Stolbizer (ACyS), 3 % for Sabbatella (NE) and 7 % for others.

Among Elisa Carrió's voters in 2007, 52 % voted for Stolbizer, 29 %for de Narváez, 6 % for Sabbatella and only 2 % for Kirchner.

Among the 2007 voters of Roberto Lavagna, who was Minister of Economy with Néstor Kirchner and competed in the 2007 Presidential backed by the UCR, 43 % voted for Stolbizer in 2009, 38 % for de Narváez, 9 % for Sabbbatella and 10% for other candidates with no register for Kirchner.

Among the voters of Alberto Rodríguez Saá (Federal Peronism) 70 % voted for de Narváez, 10% for Kirchner and Stolbizer and another 10% voted for other lists.

*Carlos Fara & Asociados between June 22 and 24 with a sample of 400 people in Greater Buenos Aires.

Attending to the educational level, Kirchner would have received a support above 60 % among whom they did not finish the primary studies, lowering to 38 % among those who completed the primary school and to percentages around 20 % among people with secondary and university studies. De Narváez would have registered his major levels of support among people with primary and secondary studies (32 % and 31 %), while the supports that Stolbizer received rise gradually as it raises the educational level of the voters, registering the major support among people with university studies (26 %).

The official electoral data provided by the Argentinian Ministry of the Interior is discriminated by sexes and a superficial look allows to realize that the ACyS, the center-left alliance, received more feminine vote than masculine, in Buenos Aires and other provinces.

For comparison, leading candidates in Greater Buenos Aires for the 2007 Presidential Election:



And Buenos Aires city:

[FredLindq]

What about Massi and his Frente Renovador? Is he clearly innthe opposition? Might he join The Federal Peronists?

[Velasco]

What about Massi and his Frente Renovador? Is he clearly innthe opposition? Might he join The Federal Peronists?

Argentina is highly unpredictable regarding her politics. I think Sergio Massa's case is the one of someone who has decided that his chance to be the next president has come. Cristina's government is facing problems with the inflation, the opposition to the judicial reform and some corruption scandals around the Kirchner family and the fiefdom of Santa Cruz province. However, nowadays it's practically impossible to have chances for the presidential race outside the officialist Peronism but, on the other hand, the government has a high dissaproval rate (around 60%, I think) and polls say that a crushing FPV majority is unlikely, so the chance for a Constitutional reform to allow a Cristina's 3rd term seems to be fading away. Another probable candidate for the next presidential election is Daniel Scioli, the Governor of Buenos Aires. However, Cristina hates him and sometimes humiliates him in public. Scioli decided to remain quiet and await, but Massa seems to take over the lead. Massa was a kind of Cristina's spoiled kid and mayor of a city called Tigre, near Buenos Aires. He has an excellent public image and people inside and outside officialism like him. He has criticized the most polemic governmental measures and has mentioned the taboo: inflation. Nevertheless, the whole world says that his principal fault is the unconcretion and his popularity index might vary, depending on his next offers. Also, Massa is maneuvering among the powerful metropolitan mayors (BsAs "conurbano").

The Federal Peronism is a loose and very changeable alliance. Every leader of this current and every Peronist provincial governor can go with one or another candidate, depending on a heap of factors.

I'll try to get up to date with the Argentinian press or the entertaining Jorge Asís's website.

Some polls for Buenos Aires province, also starring Sergio Massa:

Poliarquía (La Nación):

Sergio Massa (Frente Renovador) 33.7%; Insaurralde (FPV) 22.8%; Francisco de Narváez (United for Freedom and Work) 12.8%; Margarita Stolbizer (Civic Front) 12.1%; Left Front 2%; Compromiso Federal 0.7%; undecided and others 15.7%.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1599059-massa-le-saca-casi-11-puntos-de-ventaja-a-insaurralde-en-el-inicio-de-la-campana

On June 30 perfil, a twice weekly magazine, released a poll giving 35.5% to Massa; 25.6% to Insaurralde, 18% to Margarita Stolbizer and Ricardo Alfonsín and 14.9% to Francisco de Narváez.

http://www.perfil.com/politica/Massa-larga-con-una-ventaja-de-10-puntos-sobre-el-candidato-de-Cristina-20130630-0001.html

Also, in the city of Buenos Aires is interesting to see the internal primary in the center-left (or the "socialdemocratic casting", as Jorge Asís says). However, the broad center-left alliance (with the Elisa Carrió- Pino Solanas ticket as starring feature), would come 3rd behind the conservative Republican proposal (PRO) and the officialist Front For Victory (FPV). The Senate race in the capital seems to be a tight contest between Gabriela Michetti (PRO) and Daniel Filmus (FPV).

I've finished an awful map of the 2011 presidential election by department (4000 px.) that I'll likely post tomorrow, only for Cristina's fans (if there's any around here).

[Edu]

I have almost decided my vote for the primaries.

Alfonso Prat-Gay and Victoria Donda for senators

For deputies I'm a bit more conflicted between Carrio and Gil Lavedra.

By the way, great job at explaining stuff andi. I did at least one thread about some past election but I suck compared to you.

And yeah, the Andy Tow blog is absolutely great

[FredLindq]

Ok. It seems complicated. But why does not Masi run as head of FPV?! Or is he just spoiling the opposition votes i.e. instead of voting for de Navarez people will vote for Masa and get a supporter for Kirchner?

[Velasco]

Ok. It seems complicated. But why does not Masi run as head of FPV?! Or is he just spoiling the opposition votes i.e. instead of voting for de Navarez people will vote for Masa and get a supporter for Kirchner?

Francisco de Narváez is Peronist himself, though he is in the dissident faction and leads a party called Unión Celeste y Blanco, named after the colours of the national flag (sky blue and white).

I have almost decided my vote for the primaries.

Alfonso Prat-Gay and Victoria Donda for senators

For deputies I'm a bit more conflicted between Carrio and Gil Lavedra.

By the way, great job at explaining stuff andi. I did at least one thread about some past election but I suck compared to you.

And yeah, the Andy Tow blog is absolutely great

Thanks. I'm afraid that it's likely that I made some mistakes, because Argentinian politics is a terrible mess. If you want to say something about the candidates in Buenos Aires city (or another place), go ahead. In any case, I will be updating this thread (the primary election is on 8/11, so there's no hurry). Victoria Donda is hot, btw. Andy Tow's blog is great, indeed. There's another place with interactive maps by the same author.

Talking about election maps, here's my contribution for the 2011 presidential election:

Full size (4000 px): http://imageshack.com/a/img15/5562/5emp.png

[FredLindq]

Yes, but I mean is a trick to fool people who wants to vote for a dissident peronist like Navarez buts instead is voting for Masa which might be a vote for Kirchner?

[Velasco]

I was checking the list of candidates for the primaries in several provinces. I'll try to make a summary of the top candidates.

Buenos Aires (province):

Front For Victory (FPV): The head of list is Martín Insaurralde, mayor of Lomas de Zamora, a metropolitan municipality with big social problems. Maradona was born there, in a shanty town; De Narváez has attacked Insaurralde asking on drug trafficking in Lomas. Insaurralde is seconded by the deputy Juliana Di Tullio, a young (41) social psychologist detached on the defense of women and minorities who has promoted a law on gender identity, supported egalitarian (same-sex) marriage, and also is in favour of the decriminalization of abortion. She raplaced Agustin Rossi in May 2013 as president of the FPV parliamentary block.

Frente Renovador: Headed by Sergio Massa, the prima donna of the primaries. Back in the 90s, Massa was member of the liberal-conservative UCéDé (Union of the Democratic Centre), Wikileaks cables revealed that he was a confident of the US embassy (he described Néstor Kirchner as "a psychopath; a monster whose bully approach to politics shows his sense of inferiority"). Pragmatic. Elected national deputy in 2005 in the FPV list and later mayor of Tigre, in the Paraná Delta, in 2007. Massa is seconded by Darío Giustozzi (FPV's mayor of Almirante Brown), independents and by an important personality in the dissident peronism: Felipe Solá. The list includes 3 deputies of Mauricio Macri's PRO.

Union for Freedom and Work: Strange alliance between the dissident Peronist Francisco de Narváez and the syndicalist leader Hugo Moyano (legendary boss of the Truck Driver's Union, CGT) whose man is Francisco Omar Plaini (number two), including the delasotista (follower of Cordoba's governor De La Sota) Claudia Rucci (number three).

Civic and Social Front: UCR and the socialdemocratic forces united again (the Radical and Civic Union made an alliance with de Narváez in 2011). Headed by Margarita Stolbizer (GEN) and Ricardo Alfonsín (UCR), as in 2009.

Other candidacies: there are four lists competing for the Compromiso Federal nomination, another list headed by the deputy and Teacher's Union leader Marta Maffei, representing the People's Front (PODEMOS) and the Left Front, which is competing in 19 provinces.

City of Buenos Aires:

Front for Victory: Juan Cabandié (35) is on the top of the list. He was born in 1978 in the ESMA torture center,  from where he was given in adoption. Only in 2004 he knew who were his parents, 'missing' after after their detention. Member of the youth movement La Cámpora, Human Rights activist, back in 2001 he took part in the protests against De La Rúa. Seconded by Liliana Mazure and Carlos Salomón Heller, the latter representing Sabbatella's New Encounter. Daniel Filmus, previously Macri's challenger in the election for the city's Chief of Government, is candidate for the Senate.

Republican Proposal (PRO):Gabriela Michetti runs for the Senate, whereas Sergio Bergmann (a local legislator) and the banker Federico Sturzenegger (it resembles some governor of California) are running for the Chamber of Deputies.

The center-left UNEN Front presents four lists:

Coalición Sur: Elisa Carrió (CC-ARI) for deputy and Pino Solanas (Project South) for the Senate.

Juntos (Together): Ricardo Gil Lavedra (UCR) for the Chamber of Deputies; Alfonso Prat Gay (CC-ARI) and Victoria Donda (Free of the South Movement) for the Senate.

Suma Mas: The economist Martin Lousteau runs for deputy. Lousteau was Minister of Economy and Production between 2007 and 2008, replaced as a consequence of the 2008 protests. Rodolfo Terragno (UCR), former Chief of the Cabinet with the president De la Rúa, runs for the Senate.

Presidente Illia: Leandro Illia (UCR), son of the former president Arturo Illia (1963-1966), lawyer and former secretary of State with Raúl Alfonsín, seems to be the outsider in this race ("the media want to ban me", he stated). Illia runs for deputy and César Wehbe for senator.

Compromiso Federal: The former governor of San Luis and candidate in the 2007 and 2011 Presidential elections, Alberto Rodríguez Saá, is running for the Senate in the capital of Argentina. For the Chamber of Deputies are running Eduardo Amadeo and Felipe Tomasevich, minister in the San Luis province.

The economist and deputy Claudio Lozano (People's Union) runs for the Senate as candidate of the Frente Camino Popular. Lozano was elected deputy inside the FAP coalition and broke in disagreement with the alliance with people "linked with the center right" like Carrió and Prat Gay. Itai Hagman runs for the Lower House for the same front.

Jorge Altamira, presidential candidate in 2011, runs for deputy for the Left Front.

Córdoba:

Three lists compete inside the UCR, one of them headed by the former governor Óscar Aguad, plus the Progressive, Civic and Social Front (basically Luis Juez's New Party and the socialists) and the centrist CC-ARI running in its own.

FPV is placing Silvia Carolina Scotto. The Union for Cordoba (UpC) (provincial Peronism, lead by Governor De la Sota) is splitted in two lists, one headed by Juan Schiaretti (Governor between 2007 and 2011) and another labelled as Frente Renovador. Outside the delasotista UpC runs Olga Riutort (Strenght of the People), she was married with De la Sota and was president of Córdoba's Justicialist Party. Compromiso Federal is headed by the former Menem's Minister of Economy Domigo Cavallo, whose nomination is a big surprise. Cavallo was the maker of the Convertibility Plan, fixing dollar-peso exchange. Unión-PRO stands with another list ( Héctor Baldassi, Córdoba Federal).

Apparently the favourite in this province is the Schiaretti's UpC ticket, followed by Oscar Aguad (UCR). The third place could be for FPV, Mrs. Riutort or the FPCS list.

Santa Fe:

The main lists in the province are the Progressive, Civic and Social Front, which is headed by the socialist leader Hermes Binner, the Unión-PRO Santa Fe Federal list headed by Miguel Torres del Sel (actor, comedian and candidate in the 2011 gubernatorial election) and FPV with former governor Jorge Alberto Obeid.

Mendoza:

Former Vice President Julio César Cobos runs on the top of one of the two UCR lists for the primaries. If he wins nomination, he will face FPV (Alejandro Abraham), the Federal Party (Roberto Iglesias, formerly UCR governor of Mendoza), Compromiso Federal (Daniel Cassia), the Democratic Party (aligned with Unión-PRO), FAP, CC-ARI and the Left Front.

Julio Cobos is the clear favourite but Roberto Iglesias' list may hurt him in the legislative election. Cobos is showing himself as a 'common' man (he's living in a middle-class neighbourhood in Mendoza city, despite owning a better house in some upper-class place) and if he gets a round victory he might be presidential candidate. However, some people in the provincial UCR (namely Mendoza's mayor, Víctor Fayad, supports Iglesias) distrust him due to his kirchnerista past.

In the race of public work inaugurations typical in election periods, the Argentinian government is favouring Fayad and obviously FPV mayors in the Mendoza province. OTOH everybody is involved in that race, including Macri inaugurating subway stations in BsAs and De la Sota in Córdoba province.

Entre Ríos:

The province elects deputies and senators.

The Justicialist Party is splitted between FPV (with governor Sergio Uribarri in the list as substitute for Senate) and a list called BASTA lead by former senator Hector Maya, who wants to return to the High Chamber. "Basta" means "that's enough" and Maya is staunchly opposed to the re election of CFdK. Governor Uribarri is popular in the province, but not La Presidenta. The 'official' list, with senator Pedro Guastvino running for re election, is the favourite, but it's facing a challenge from BASTA and Union for Entre Ríos.

The Union for Entre Ríos Front, including PRO and other forces, is the Justicialist Party's main challenger. "Ruralist" leader Alfredo de Angeli (PRO) runs for the Senate. Coming behind UCR (deputy Atilio Benedetti runs for Senate) and FAP (3 lists competing in an internal primary).

Corrientes:

The main forces competing in the province are Encuentro por Corrientes (ECO), a coalition lead by the UCR provincial governor Ricardo Colombi, and the Front For Victory (FPV). ECO has six lists running in the coalition's internal primary, with the 'official' list headed by provincial minister Gustavo Valdés and former governor Arturo Colombi (cousin of the current governor) running in an alternative list. FPV-Justicialist Party has three lists. FAP and ARI are running in the province as well, so there are 11 lists registered in the province.

Hector Massacessi, a former presidential candidate, is the UCR's bid for the Senate in Río Negro.

EDIT: Perfil and Clarín newspaper mention a poll showing UNEN Front (33.5%) slightly ahead of PRO (32.9%) for the Chamber of Deputies, with FPV (24.9%) in 3rd place. UNEN figure is the addition of the three main tickets; Solanas-Carrió formula is ahead with 18.8% in the center-left coalition. In the Senate race Gabriela Michetti is ahead, according with the same sources. Also, Perfil mentions a survey by "an important consulting enterprise", saying that Insaurralde (FPV) is shortening the gap with Massa (28% the first and 35% the latter).

[FredLindq]

Very interesting post.

Interesting to know that both Solá as a "dissident" peronist and three PRO 3 deputies are on the Frente Renovador list. It more looks like an CR-outfit. Maybe they can pull off something lika "dissindent" peronism pulled off i BA in 2009.

It seems that these elections might be a major setback for FPV och Kirchner.

I wonder if Peronism might go more centre or centre right in the future.

[Velasco]

The Peronist branches supporting CFdK might align with Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires. Apparently there are gestures of distension between some militant sectors of kirchnerismo and the latter, significantly La Cámpora seems to be less hostile the governor, who lately has come to say that he is neither a dissident nor a Cristina's serf, but "a fellow traveler "

Other potential candidates of the official line might be the governors José Manuel Urtubey (Salta), Jorge Capitanich (Chaco), Sergio Uribarri (Entre Ríos) or José Luis Goja (San Juan). All of them are "respectably conservative" as Scioli.

Out of the official line governor José Manuel De la Sota (Córdoba) and senator and former president (a few days at the end of 2001) Adolfo Rodríguez Saá might be waiting an opportunity.

Neither the Peronism (Justicialist Party) nor the Front For the Victory are ideologically homogeneous groups, but a kind of franchises. The final aim of all these alliances is to preserve or to reach the power. In this complex game it seems De Narváez, who broke with Mauricio Macri months ago, might be the potential loser in the next Primary election. On the other hand, Cristina was declared a political corpse after losing the 2009 legislative elections and won a landslide in the 2011 presidential, partly because opposition leaders (especially Macri and De Narváez) were unable to take advantage of their momentary victory, but now it seems to be impossible for her a new presidential term.

[Velasco]

On June 27 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner surprising appointment on the top of the military hierarchy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/07/23/inenglish/1374602510_642373.html

Two allegations were made against Milani. One from a militant of a leftist organization in La Rioja, accusing Milani of threatening him in an interrogatory and breaking into his home and arresting his father, who's missing since then. Another from the family of soldier Alfredo Ledo, accusing Milani of ordering Ledo's disappearance.

The Mothers and Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo and Center for Social and Legal Studies (CELS), both great supporters of the Kirchners, initially didn't object the appointment. However, CELS presented later a report against Milani when the Senate began studying new presidential appointments on Monday. 

Milani's appointment seems to be due Cristina's complete confidence in his loyalty.

OTOH, there's some obscure internal war of espionage, made evident after the murder of the spy Pedro Tomás Viale (aka Lauchón) by agents of a police's narco brigade. Also, the new minister of Defense, Agustín Rossi, arranged that the army is used in tasks of Civil Protection with the support of La Cámpora during the election year. The operative has the symbolic name of Operation Dorrego, in reference to an action of the same name executed during the brief presidency of the left-wing Peronist Héctor Cámpora.

[FredLindq]

How does the primaries work? Will it determine which off the UDESO-lists that Will be the one that Will be the only one in the elections in CBA or what? What are they good for?

[Velasco]

How does the primaries work? Will it determine which off the UDESO-lists that Will be the one that Will be the only one in the elections in CBA or what? What are they good for?

It's a terrible mess. Political parties and alliances can place their candidates by several means: 'direct' appointment, agreement, 'closed primary' or whatever. If there's not an only list, then "internal primaries" take place between candidates belonging to the same block (party or alliance) to determine which list is the one that is going to represent the party/alliance. Every political block has a colour and a number. In the case of different tickets inside a block, every one has added a letter and you can only choose one.  

UNEN Front in BsAS city will make a list mixing the four candidacies concurring in the primaries, depending on results. In other cases, if there's not a similar arrangement and if I'm not wrong, first pass the post.

For parties and blocks without internal primary, the election works as a "popularity test" or as a "mega poll" and to disqualify lists receiving under 1.5% of the vote. The utility of primaries is pretty questionable, unless you love elections, super mega polls and political intrigues.


This is the ballot of the Front For Victory for the Chamber of Deputies in the province of Buenos Aires. FPV is the list number 2 and it has the letter 'A' (in this case the only letter, in cases of internal primaries there would be B's, C's and so on) Ballots include a pic of the head of list, as you can see.

You can see several ballots of the different candidates in BsAS City here:

http://www.clarin.com/politica/curiosidades-boletas-primarias-portenas_0_953304938.html

UDESO alliance no longer exists, btw, now it's UCR alone, or inside 'Civic Fronts' and UNEN in the capital.

EDIT: Notice Perón/Evita and Néstor Kirchner images in the FPV ballot. Opposition groups appealed without success before the courts the incorporation of Kirchner's image.

 

[FredLindq]

As I understand the primaries gave CFK and FPV a boost and the results were almost repeated in the elections?! As you sad a mega poll...

[Velasco]

As I understand the primaries gave CFK and FPV a boost and the results were almost repeated in the elections?! As you sad a mega poll...

The main issues that boosted Cristina and her FPV were the economy's growth and her social programs, namely the Universal Allowance per Son (Asignación Universal por Hijo or AUH). Also, the opposition was unable to take the legislative initiative after the 2009 elections.

However the PASO (primaries) elections on August 2011 made the outcome of the October Presidential even more predictable, boosting some candidacies and damaging others. Cristina rose from 50.2% in the PASO to 54.1% in the Presidential; Binner got 10.2% (4th place) in the primaries and climbed to 16.9% (2nd) months later. The main injured was former president Duhalde, who fell from 12.1% (3rd) to 5.9% (5th). Neither of the divided opposition candidates had real chances with Primaries or without them.

[Velasco]

Poll in Clarin for the Primaries in the Capital: PRO candidate ahead in the Senate and the addition of UNEN candidates, with Carrió as favourite in the internal primary, ahead in the Chamber of Deputies:

 

In short, from Copacabana beach in Rio, where there is celebrated one of those multitudinous meetings usual in the papal visits, Pope Francis said:

" The future demands the task of rehabilitating politics, which is one of the highest forms of the charity, and a humanist vision of the economy. A politics that avoids the elitism and eradicates the poverty, which assures dignity, brotherhood and solidarity "

The following day, CFdK attended the papal mass accompanied of the candidate Martin Insaurralde. According with Clarín, it went down badly in ecclesiastic circles.

The Supreme Court might issue a verdict on the controversial  Media Law before the primary elections. The Clarín media group, with which CFdK supports a fierce war, might be benefited with the judgment in several points, namely it might preserve its investments in cable TV.

The chairman of the influential SRA (Argentinian Rural Society) made a tough speech against the government during an act and in the presence of detached opposition leaders: Macri, Córdoba's governor De la Sota, De Narváez, etcetera.

Sergio Massa states in Clarín that Argentina has no future with La Cámpora and Moreno. Guillermo Moreno is the powerful secretary of Commerce and responsible of several price controls in Argentina. Back in 2008, the struggle between former minister of Economy Martín Lousteau and Moreno, formally a subordinate, was pointed as the main reason behind of Lousteau's resignation.

[Famous Mortimer]

Prat Gay?

[Velasco]

Prat Gay?

Do you mean how about Prat Gay or what the poll says about him? If you look the picture above, it seems that Prat Gay is coming third in the UNEN internal primaries for the Senate. However, the difference between Solanas and Prat Gay is only 1%, so both candidates plus Rodolfo Terragno have chances. Open race. However, his mate Gil Lavedra is not in a good position in the deputies' primaries and Elisa Carrió has a clear advantage over him and Lousteau.