FiveThirtyEight releases more detailed state-by-state model

[Vosem]

It's interesting to see how close many of their Projected Vote Share estimates are to simple polling averages: the difference in Louisiana is 0.1%, in Michigan it's 0.3%, in North Carolina it is also 0.1%.

If this is the case, what value does State Fundamentals really provide?

The more polling there is, and the closer to Election Day it gets, the less value the state fundamentals have. The less polling there is, and the further from Election Day we are, the more value the state fundamentals have.