Pennsylvania: Bush with narrow lead

[NHPolitico]

President Bush's campaign roll-out dislodged a few supporters from Democratic rival Sen. John Kerry in Pennsylvania, and Sen. Arlen Specter's campaign is holding on "against a fierce challenge" in the Republican primary, a new Keystone Poll finds.

Last month, a survey conducted by Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research showed Bush trailing the Massachusetts senator, 47 percent to 46 percent.

The new poll, sponsored by The Patriot-News, WGAL-TV and other media organizations, shows Bush with what poll director G. Terry Madonna termed "a narrow lead," 46 percent to 40 percent.

"It shows that Bush had a better campaign month than Kerry," Madonna said. "But this race is still young and still close."

The Bush-Kerry results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Heading for the April 27 Republican U.S. Senate primary in Pennsylvania, Specter leads U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Allentown, 50 percent to 28 percent among all GOP registered voters, with the rest undecided. Those results have an error margin of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Among a smaller group of voters who said they were "absolutely certain" to vote -- about 37 percent of the total GOP voters -- Specter led 46 percent to 33 percent. But the findings reflected only 94 GOP voters and had an error margin of plus or minus 10 percentage points.

The majority of Bush voters said homeland security and the war on terrorism were their top issues -- 39 percent chose that, while 21 percent were concerned most about the economy.

Kerry voters had different concerns: 42 percent said the economy and jobs were the top issue, while terrorism and homeland security issues finished fifth, at 8 percent.

Analysts said the disparity was driven by each campaign's themes. Bush is the first president in recent years whose administration lost more than 2 million jobs, so he has emphasized the modest job recovery of late last year and the war on terrorism.

Kerry has said that jobs are his top priority, and criticized Bush for the job loss.

"This month showed what a strong campaign can do to their opponent in a month, and despite everything that has come out, Bush's numbers are holding strong," Madonna said. "But he turned some of Kerry's supporters last month into undecideds this month. It's Kerry's job to catch up and win them back."

In the Senate race, the survey showed Toomey is still unknown to half of Republican primary voters. And while regional breakdowns have error margins of more than 10 percentage points, they showed Specter leading widely in central Pennsylvania, a traditionally conservative area.

The poll shows Toomey tied with Specter in Specter's hometown, Philadelphia, and leading in southwestern Pennsylvania, the Northeast and Lehigh Valley.

Conservative strategists have said Toomey needs to win central Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh and Erie suburbs by wide margins to mount a serious challenge. In the Keystone Poll, Toomey trails Specter by 2-1 margins in central and northwestern Pennsylvania, and is closing in on Specter in Allegheny County, where he trails 52 percent to 43 percent.

Toomey leads in the southwest counties around Allegheny, 54 percent to 23 percent.

Toomey spokesman Mark Dion said Specter "is sinking like a rock while Congressman Toomey continues to steadily increase his numbers. Pennsylvania Republicans are tired of [Specter's] liberal voting record and are excited about a new mainstream Republican alternative."

Dion said the campaign's multiple mailings and television ads would help voters get acquainted with Toomey.

Specter spokesman Chris Nicholas said the poll interviewed too few Republicans to be credible. He added, "after $2 million of negative ads from Pat Toomey and his allies, Toomey is still below 30 percent," in the survey of registered Republican voters.

Madonna said the poll showed little progress for Toomey, and that "Specter is defending well against a fierce attack."

The Keystone Poll showed voters are angry with incumbents. Only one-third of voters said things in the state "are generally headed in the right direction," while 50 percent said events in the state were "off on the wrong track."

[NHPolitico]

Here is what Rasmussen Reports has to say about Pennsylvania.....

March 18, 2004--In Pennsylvania, as the election season begins, it's a toss-up. Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry attracts 45% of the Pennsylvania vote while President George W. Bush has earned 44%.
 
Four years ago, Bush lost to Al Gore by five percentage points in Pennsylvania. This polling data suggests that the state is clearly in play during Election 2004.

Kerry leads among the state's women voters by seven points while Bush holds a five-point advantage among the men.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of all Pennsylvania voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Pennsylvania voters give the President good or excellent ratings for his handling of the economy. Fifteen percent (15%) say he is doing a fair job in this area while 41% say poor.

The whole point of the story is the shift in the past two weeks--as in when your mentioned poll took place.