Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/latino-decisions-obama-73-romney-21-with-hispanic-voters-147565

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Surprisingly Trump is only doing moderately worse with Hispanics. However, I still don't think Trump is going to get > 20%. We are likely going to see a surge in turnout among Hispanic voters, and mostly against Trump. That will probably help dilute his margins.

[Virginiá]

As I said, it is women, that makes it hard for Trump. He's probably doing much better among Hispanics men than Romney. How does it sound?

Please don't act like you are the arbiter of world knowledge outside Atlas. As the article said, he was doing even worse in previous polls, so with that in mind and knowing what we know about his rhetoric and policy positions, it is in fact surprising that he is holding higher margins right now.

Honestly LittleBig, just put me on ignore please. You're a dick and annoying to boot, and I'd prefer it if you didn't respond to any of my posts. If you can't be civil at least half the time, then just bug off.

[Virginiá]

Have you applied your Math to the 2008/2012. Did it work?
Romney loose because of incredibly low turnout of Whites, but guess what. Even McCain didn't manage to have get high turn-out among Whites.

Are you getting into Sean Trende's 'missing white voters' theory? If so:

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9055

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Among other points, the gist is that many of these missing white voters are in states that are already safely Republican or otherwise non-competitive and pointless. Of course then we must also mention that if all these white voters came out of the American abyss, they are not all voting Republican, either.

If Trump is relying on this, it's not going to work. If he can't win whites by more than Romney, he loses. That is, unless third parties peel off an enormous amount of support from Clinton in battleground states.

Also if you do intend to respond to me, I'd appreciate a response that isn't insulting or mocking me in some way, otherwise don't bother.

[Virginiá]

I was talking about Whites' relative turnout. Was it not clear? It felt in a much higher rate than demographics (especially in 2012)

So was I. The 'missing white voter' theory is basically how there are a bunch of white voters out there who didn't vote in 2012 and could help a Republican out if they all went and voted. I think it's a bit silly though. As numerous analyses have stated, many of these voters are in safely red or blue states, and even if they all came out of the woodwork, they are not all going to vote for Trump/Republicans. It wouldn't have been enough to save Romney and it wouldn't be enough to save Trump.

Then you have to factor in that Trump is relying more heavily on white working class voters, who have lower turnout rates than college educated whites. Particularly white working class men, again, Trump's strongest cohort (?). Depending so much on low-propensity voters while having no suitable GOTV effort is awful strategy. For this reason it's quite possible that Trump under-performs more than he should have, as he is relying on voters who may or may not show up despite answering those pollsters. Or they could show up in force, I dunno. I wouldn't bet on it, though.