PRRI: Vast majority of Americas/States believe abortion should be legal always/most of the time

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1786007201619779991?s=46

[MadmanMotley]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1786007201619779991?s=46

Definitely makes sense why the Biden campaign is pushing this issue so hard in this election.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Unitarians stay winning.

[Joe Republic]

A fifth of Jehovah's Witnesses: 🤐🙈🙉🙊

[Pres Mike]

10 years ago Tennessee had an abortion referendum. Well to be exact, it was a referendum on adding the words "Abortions are not a constitutional right" to the state constitution.

It passed, 53-47%

Gov Haslam was re-elected with 70%. Senator Alexander was re-elected with 62% for reference 

If Tennessee had an actual abortion referendum, I am not sure it would pass. Easily a toss up. But it wouldn't clear 60% thats for sure

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Atlas: ~"Hispanics and Muslims are socially conservative and pro-life, it's only natural that they should vote Republican"

Meanwhile, Muslims are 60% pro-choice and Hispanic Catholics are 57% pro-choice.

Although it is true that "Hispanic Protestant" is only 40% pro-choice, I wonder what Hispanic other/unaffiliated are? Probably strongly pro-choice enough for the average for Hispanics overall to end up at close to the Hispanic Catholic 57%.

[jojoju1998]

Atlas: ~"Hispanics and Muslims are socially conservative and pro-life, it's only natural that they should vote Republican"

Meanwhile, Muslims are 60% pro-choice and Hispanic Catholics are 57% pro-choice.

Although it is true that "Hispanic Protestant" is only 40% pro-choice, I wonder what Hispanic other/unaffiliated are? Probably strongly pro-choice enough for the average for Hispanics overall to end up at close to the Hispanic Catholic 57%.

Alot of hispanic catholics are culturally catholic, but not catholic catholic.

[Pres Mike]

Atlas: ~"Hispanics and Muslims are socially conservative and pro-life, it's only natural that they should vote Republican"

Meanwhile, Muslims are 60% pro-choice and Hispanic Catholics are 57% pro-choice.

Although it is true that "Hispanic Protestant" is only 40% pro-choice, I wonder what Hispanic other/unaffiliated are? Probably strongly pro-choice enough for the average for Hispanics overall to end up at close to the Hispanic Catholic 57%.

I very much doubt this survey's response rate from Muslims is an accurate representation of American Muslims

There are anyway from 2-6 million Muslims in the US. Roughly 35-42% were born in the US (like me)

Roughly 20% of US born Muslims are African American converts

I think pro life position for Muslim immigrants would be close to (100%) unless they came as a child

To be blunt, most Muslim immigrants aren't going to do a survey. I would bet money that the "Muslims" that completed this survey were mostly college aged US born Muslims or converts

[Santander]

The biggest takeaway is the percentage of people who think abortion should be illegal in all cases. Further evidence a significant proportion of Evangelicals have completely lost the plot.

[Agafin]

Atlas: ~"Hispanics and Muslims are socially conservative and pro-life, it's only natural that they should vote Republican"

Meanwhile, Muslims are 60% pro-choice and Hispanic Catholics are 57% pro-choice.

Although it is true that "Hispanic Protestant" is only 40% pro-choice, I wonder what Hispanic other/unaffiliated are? Probably strongly pro-choice enough for the average for Hispanics overall to end up at close to the Hispanic Catholic 57%.

I very much doubt this survey's response rate from Muslims is an accurate representation of American Muslims

There are anyway from 2-6 million Muslims in the US. Roughly 35-42% were born in the US (like me)

Roughly 20% of US born Muslims are African American converts

I think pro life position for Muslim immigrants would be close to (100%) unless they came as a child

To be blunt, most Muslim immigrants aren't going to do a survey. I would bet money that the "Muslims" that completed this survey were mostly college aged US born Muslims or converts

100% for immigrants? Isn't abortion legal in a lot of muslim countries? I'm not sure I buy that the number is so high.

But I agree that this seems to be a way too pro-choice muslim sample. Whitmer heavily underformed in muslim areas in her 2022 gubernatorial run and the only possible reasons are either abortion or LGBT issues (since Gaza wasn't a salient issue then).

[7,052,770]

60% of Catholics are going to shock the other 40%

[Pres Mike]

Atlas: ~"Hispanics and Muslims are socially conservative and pro-life, it's only natural that they should vote Republican"

Meanwhile, Muslims are 60% pro-choice and Hispanic Catholics are 57% pro-choice.

Although it is true that "Hispanic Protestant" is only 40% pro-choice, I wonder what Hispanic other/unaffiliated are? Probably strongly pro-choice enough for the average for Hispanics overall to end up at close to the Hispanic Catholic 57%.

I very much doubt this survey's response rate from Muslims is an accurate representation of American Muslims

There are anyway from 2-6 million Muslims in the US. Roughly 35-42% were born in the US (like me)

Roughly 20% of US born Muslims are African American converts

I think pro life position for Muslim immigrants would be close to (100%) unless they came as a child

To be blunt, most Muslim immigrants aren't going to do a survey. I would bet money that the "Muslims" that completed this survey were mostly college aged US born Muslims or converts

100% for immigrants? Isn't abortion legal in a lot of muslim countries? I'm not sure I buy that the number is so high.

But I agree that this seems to be a way too pro-choice muslim sample. Whitmer heavily underformed in muslim areas in her 2022 gubernatorial run and the only possible reasons are either abortion or LGBT issues (since Gaza wasn't a salient issue then).

Perhaps not 100% but close

Abortion is illegal in every Arab nation except Tunisia. Same for Muslim majority nations like Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria. Most allow exceptions for rape and health of mother.

The only majority Muslim nations that allow at will abortions are Albania and Bosnia (to my knowledge)

Illegal back alley abortions are a thing though sadly. And cultural norms sometime prevent a woman from getting an abortion. I know of such examples sadly

I know in the 90s Muslim clerics around the world gave their blessing for Bosnian women to get abortions when they were raped by Serb forces

I really wish American Muslims weren't lumped into the same group. A second generation Muslim (like me) isn't going to think like an immigrant. Or a convert. An Arab isn't going to think like an African or South Asian or European.

[TML]

Note that Mississippi had a ballot initiative system which was suspended by courts on a technicality several years ago; recent efforts to restore it by the legislature have included conditions that it not be used to change the state's abortion laws. This study is evidence of why MS Republican legislatures want those strings attached to any restored ballot initiative system.

[SnowLabrador]

I wish they'd vote like it in November.

[dead0man]

"most of the time" is doing a lot of work here

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Most of these seem slightly worse than even post-2022 referendums, so I might quibble on the margins, but the picture isn't pretty regardless.  Pro-lifers need to do a better job of active persuasion.

But, the order of the states seems funny to me.  Like, the conventional wisdom is that GA and NC are significantly more pro-life than states like MI/PA/WI.  Likewise, I kind of doubt that the Dakotas are more pro-life than Mississippi and Alabama.  California as only two points more supportive of abortion than North Carolina also feels odd.  As does Nevada being the second most pro-abortion state behind Hawaii.  I'd buy that it's the most pro-abortion swing state, but not that it's moreso than every deep blue state in the Lower 48 and Washington DC.

Also, if Arizona is truly that much less pro-abortion than Ohio (which I kind of doubt), then their referendum might be surprisingly close this fall (like 52-53% yes).  But, other than Kentucky, these numbers seem worse than the actual referendums.

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW this is systematically ~5% more pro-choice than recent referendum results in states that have held them.  Largest error was Louisiana, which is 53% pro-choice here but voted 63% pro-life in a referendum in 2020 (which was before Dobbs, yes, but also after Barrett was confirmed and a Roe reversal was anticipated). 

Closest fit was California (68% vs. 67% in actual referendum).  The only state it has being too pro-life vs. referendum results was Kentucky (however, note pro-choice was "no" in the KY referendum).  In swing states, Michigan and Ohio were both about 57% pro-choice in referendum votes vs. 64% here.

While it doesn't have voter initiatives, recently legislative election results in Virginia are totally inconsistent with it being core NE state level pro-choice.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Based Unitarians.

[MyLifeIsYours]

Atlas: ~"Hispanics and Muslims are socially conservative and pro-life, it's only natural that they should vote Republican"

Meanwhile, Muslims are 60% pro-choice and Hispanic Catholics are 57% pro-choice.

Although it is true that "Hispanic Protestant" is only 40% pro-choice, I wonder what Hispanic other/unaffiliated are? Probably strongly pro-choice enough for the average for Hispanics overall to end up at close to the Hispanic Catholic 57%.

I very much doubt this survey's response rate from Muslims is an accurate representation of American Muslims

There are anyway from 2-6 million Muslims in the US. Roughly 35-42% were born in the US (like me)

Roughly 20% of US born Muslims are African American converts

I think pro life position for Muslim immigrants would be close to (100%) unless they came as a child

To be blunt, most Muslim immigrants aren't going to do a survey. I would bet money that the "Muslims" that completed this survey were mostly college aged US born Muslims or converts

There have been polls conducted that show Muslims as being one of the more college educated groups in America. Much of that pull comes from the immigrants who came here and completed a degree in college on American ground. That would explain the liberalization on the issue relatively to the position of the majority of Muslims in the Arab center.

[SnowLabrador]

Based Unitarians.

I know, right? I'm very proud to be one.

[omar04]

The GSS has been asking this question for a while:

 https://gssdataexplorer.norc.org/trends?category=Current%20Affairs&measure=abany&Measure%20Category=Yes&Breakdown%20Label=Total

[Ferguson97]

I wonder why white Protestants are more likely to be pro-choice than white Catholics, but the opposite is true for Hispanics.

[DaleCooper]

I wonder why white Protestants are more likely to be pro-choice than white Catholics, but the opposite is true for Hispanics.

Does protestant include evangelical? If so then I bet most protestant hispanics are evangelical while many protestant whites are mainline protestant.

[Agafin]

I wonder why white Protestants are more likely to be pro-choice than white Catholics, but the opposite is true for Hispanics.

Does protestant include evangelical? If so then I bet most protestant hispanics are evangelical while many protestant whites are mainline protestant.

This is absolutely the reason. If you look at that chart, white mainline and white evangelical protestants are presented as two seperate groups but are lumped for the hispanics (probably due to lower sample size).

Also I believe that just like with muslims, their black sample is probably way too pro-choice which is why the Southern states are so far away from conventional wisdom on that map. This study seems to have a black sample that is less than 20% pro-life whereas polls from Gallup and Pew as late as 2020 have that number closer to ~35%. This is why states like Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia in particular seem way too pro-life on this map.

[TheTide]

No way would 'legal in all cases' get anywhere near as high as 29% if the issue wasn't pretty much the leading wedge of the past half a century.