Northern Ireland local elections, 2014, and local government reorganisation

[YL]

Northern Ireland will be having local elections in May for shadow authorities for 11 new councils.  These will replace the 26 local councils which Northern Ireland has had since 1973, following a drawn out period of reorganisation which at one point was going to see a reduction to only 7 councils.  Most of the 11 new council areas have been formed by gluing together existing council areas, though there are a few adjustments to borders beyond that.  Below is a short description of each new council area, together with links to maps of the new District Electoral Areas (the STV areas used in Northern Ireland local elections).

Belfast will be expanded, though not as much as it might have been.  The expansion is to the west and south, taking in Twinbrook and Poleglass from Lisburn and various areas, mostly inside the ring road, from Castlereagh.  (I would have thought more of Castlereagh and some areas to the north could have gone in too, but of course in Northern Ireland things are never simple.)  It will still be tightly balanced between Unionists and Nationalists with Alliance probably holding the balance of power, though the changes (given Twinbrook and Poleglass) will move it slightly closer to Nationalist control. District Electoral Area map

Lisburn & Castlereagh consists of those parts of the two existing councils of those names not annexed by Belfast.  This makes it the southern and south-western parts of the Belfast metropolitan area, stretching quite a long way east from the City of Lisburn to Dundonald.  It will be mostly Unionist, but the Catholic population has been spreading out from south and west Belfast into some parts of this area. District Electoral Area map

Ards & North Down is a merger of the existing Ards and North Down councils, and covers the north-eastern part of County Down, including Bangor, Newtownards and the Ards Peninsula.  Except for the southern end of the Ards Peninsula, this is solid Unionist territory; Alliance do well in some middle-class areas like Holywood. District Electoral Area map

Newry, Mourne & Down is a merger of the existing Down and Newry & Mourne councils, together with a small area which currently comes under Banbridge.  This makes it the southern part of County Down (Downpatrick, Newcastle, the Mourne Mountains), Newry City, and the South Armagh area around Crossmaglen.  This is mostly Nationalist, but there are some Unionist enclaves such as Kilkeel, and the northern part of the area around Saintfield is also Unionist.  South Armagh is famously a Republican stronghold, but south Down has generally been a good area for the SDLP. District Electoral Area map

Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon is basically a merger of the three existing councils in its name, except that a small part of Banbridge council area goes into Newry, Mourne & Down, and a very small area of County Armagh currently in Dungannon council area is transferred here.  Hence it covers most of County Armagh and the western part of County Down.  This council area is quite mixed Unionist/Nationalist, though it has a Unionist majority. District Electoral Area map

Mid Ulster is a merger of Cookstown, Magherafelt and almost all of Dungannon council areas, so is southern County Derry and eastern County Tyrone, west of Lough Neagh.  It's fairly similar to the current parliamentary constituency of the name.  There is a mixture of strongly Nationalist areas (including some Republican strongholds, like Coalisland) with some Unionist areas as well, but is majority Nationalist. District Electoral Area map

Fermanagh & Omagh is a strange-looking (it looks like it's pointing a finger at something) merger of the two existing councils in its name, and so covers all of County Fermanagh and the south-western part of Tyrone.  Again, this is Nationalist majority territory, but there is a substantial Unionist population too, especially in northern Fermanagh. District Electoral Area map

Derry & Strabane is, again, a merger of the two existing councils in its name, so covers Derry city together with some adjacent areas, extending south to north-west County Tyrone around Strabane and Castlederg.  The west side of Derry city and Strabane town are strongly Nationalist areas (though in Derry's case leaning more SDLP) while the rest of the area is more mixed, but clearly there's a strong Nationalist majority overall. District Electoral Area map

Causeway Coast & Glens sounds more like a tourist board than a council, and stretches across northern Counties Derry and Antrim, being a merger of four existing council areas, Limavady, Coleraine, Ballymoney and Moyle.  There are Nationalist areas in the east (the Glens of Antrim) and the west (much of the old Limavady council area) but the middle around Coleraine and Ballymoney has more of the population and is Unionist; part of the County Antrim Bible Belt is here.  District Electoral Area map

Mid & East Antrim is a merger of Ballymena, Larne and Carrickfergus council areas.  This includes the rest of the Antrim Bible Belt, and some north-eastern parts of the Belfast metropolitan area.  Most of it is overwhelmingly Unionist, but there are some Nationalist pockets around Ballymena and on the coast north of Larne. District Electoral Area map

Antrim & Newtownabbey is a merger of the two existing councils in its name.  The Newtownabbey part is Belfast suburbia, and it then extends outwards towards the north side of Lough Neagh and Antrim town.  This will be a majority Unionist area, with some Nationalist areas on the shores of Lough Neagh and in parts of the northern Belfast suburbs. District Electoral Area map

[minionofmidas]

"Shadow authorities"?

[YL]

They'll be elected in 2014, but they won't actually take over until 2015.  I guess the idea is to manage the transition.  (So they'll be "shadow authorities" at first, but later become proper authorities.)

The same thing happened with the 1974 reorganisation in England: the elections were in 1973.

[afleitch]

Here is a map of party strengths at the last local elections in 2011. Of course boundaries will be changing but it gives you an indication of base support.

Note: White = no councillors elected. The faintest colour = 1 councillor, getting deeper to show 2, 3, 4 etc.

DUP


Sinn Fein


UUP


SDLP


Alliance

[ObserverIE]

Fermanagh & Omagh is a strange-looking (it looks like it's pointing a finger at something) merger of the two existing councils in its name, and so covers all of County Fermanagh and the south-western part of Tyrone.

It's strange-looking because it is strange, but this is what you get when you bolt together council areas to make the numbers (both in terms of population and of numbers of councils) fit rather than trying to group together related areas. Lisburn/Castlereagh, Newry/Mourne/Down and Mid Antrim are other obvious offenders.

There's a more detailed set of analyses of the council areas and likely results in 2014 at http://vote-2012.proboards.com/board/52/northern-irish-councils (and, no, I'm not "Irish Observer").

[warandwar]

What factors were considered when drawing the boundaries for the councils? Is the population deviance ±1% (like congressional districts in the US), ±10% (like state legislative districts in the US), or something else? (Unless population isn't really taken into account)

[ObserverIE]

What factors were considered when drawing the boundaries for the councils? Is the population deviance ±1% (like congressional districts in the US), ±10% (like state legislative districts in the US), or something else? (Unless population isn't really taken into account)

The original district council boundaries back in the early 1970s were drawn on the basis of catchment areas around specified towns or cities, although pre-existing county or rural district boundaries often formed part of the boundaries.

For the current round of reorganization, Belfast city was always considered as a unit on its own, but the other districts were to be grouped into 6, 10 or 14 clusters depending on the model being used. While the populations are meant to be approximately equal, there's no strict limit.

The districts are the equivalent of counties in the US rather than congressional or legislative districts (referred to in Britain and Ireland as constituencies). Each district is divided into a set of single-member wards whose electorates should be roughly equal to the others within the district. The wards are then grouped into electoral areas of between 5 and 7 seats.

[joevsimp]

For the current round of reorganization, Belfast city was always considered as a unit on its own, but the other districts were to be grouped into 6, 10 or 14 clusters depending on the model being used. While the populations are meant to be approximately equal, there's no strict limit.

apart from that, what is the reasoning for merging Derry and Strabane (not that merging it with Limavady makes much more sense

and why have they merged some of Castlereagh into Belast but left three random bits out? surely move all of the built up area in to Belfast and merge the rest into Ards

[MaxQue]

For the current round of reorganization, Belfast city was always considered as a unit on its own, but the other districts were to be grouped into 6, 10 or 14 clusters depending on the model being used. While the populations are meant to be approximately equal, there's no strict limit.

apart from that, what is the reasoning for merging Derry and Strabane (not that merging it with Limavady makes much more sense

and why have they merged some of Castlereagh into Belast but left three random bits out? surely move all of the built up area in to Belfast and merge the rest into Ards

For Belfast, most likely the will was to not change the unionist-nationalist balance on Council.

[YL]

Counting started yesterday, and is continuing today.  Belfast results so far:

Balmoral (5 seats): one each for Alliance, UUP, SDLP, SF, DUP
Black Mountain (7 seats): 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 People Before Profit
Castle (6 seats): 2 DUP, 1 each for Alliance, SDLP, UUP, SF
Lisnasharragh (6 seats): 2 for Alliance, 1 each for SDLP, DUP, UUP, PUP

Court (6 seats) was also meant to be counting yesterday, but they haven't finished.  Billy Hutchinson of the PUP and two DUP candidates are already elected.  The quota is 1644, and the remaining candidates are
McConville (SF) 1539
McVeigh (SF) 1413
Bunting (TUV) 1124
Manwaring (UUP) 1099
Keenan (SDLP) 818

I would expect that the two SF candidates will both now be elected on SDLP transfers, and then it's going to be close between TUV and UUP: can the UUP make up 25 votes from Nationalist transfers?

[YL]

Mid Ulster final result: SF 18, DUP 8, UUP 7, SDLP 6, Ind 1

By DEA:
Carntogher SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1
Clogher Valley SF 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1, UUP 1
Cookstown SF 3, UUP 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1
Dungannon DUP 2, SF 1, SDLP 1, UUP 1, Ind 1
Magherafelt SF 2, DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1
Moyola SF 3, DUP 1, UUP 1
Torrent SF 4, SDLP 1, UUP 1

(via UTV)

This is the only council where the count is completed at the moment.

[YL]

Looking around, there seem to be a few seats around for both the PUP (this is the Progressive Unionist Party, for those less familiar with Northern Ireland's acronyms) and the TUV.  Alliance may be doing quite well too, but I haven't seen any NI21 seats.

[EPG]

Alliance doing well in Belfast, but badly elsewhere, as the reorganisation tears up personal votes outside Belfast.

Loyalists and hardline unionists doing very well - PUP (left-wing, linked to paramilitaries), TUV (ex-DUP right-wingers), but also UKIP, whose profile in Northern Ireland is very much hardline.

On the other side, SDLP doing quite badly and Sinn Féin losing in areas to the benefits of hardline republicans and far-left parties like People Before Profit (another all-Ireland party).

In contrast, the NI21 (broad-tent Like Old Unionists But Nicer) has crushed itself into oblivion due to election-day gaffes and scandals.

[YL]

Counting started yesterday, and is continuing today.  Belfast results so far:

Balmoral (5 seats): one each for Alliance, UUP, SDLP, SF, DUP
Black Mountain (7 seats): 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 People Before Profit
Castle (6 seats): 2 DUP, 1 each for Alliance, SDLP, UUP, SF
Lisnasharragh (6 seats): 2 for Alliance, 1 each for SDLP, DUP, UUP, PUP

Court (6 seats) was also meant to be counting yesterday, but they haven't finished.  Billy Hutchinson of the PUP and two DUP candidates are already elected.  The quota is 1644, and the remaining candidates are
McConville (SF) 1539
McVeigh (SF) 1413
Bunting (TUV) 1124
Manwaring (UUP) 1099
Keenan (SDLP) 818

I would expect that the two SF candidates will both now be elected on SDLP transfers, and then it's going to be close between TUV and UUP: can the UUP make up 25 votes from Nationalist transfers?

TUV held off the UUP by 17, so Court finished DUP 2, SF 2, PUP 1, TUV 1.

[YL]

Finally a second completed council, Antrim & Newtownabbey: DUP 15, UUP 12, SDLP 4, Alliance 4, SF 3, TUV 2.

[YL]

Full Belfast result:
Balmoral (5 seats): one each for Alliance, UUP, SDLP, SF, DUP
Black Mountain (7 seats): 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 People Before Profit
Botanic (5 seats): one each for Alliance, UUP, SDLP, SF, DUP
Castle (6 seats): 2 DUP, 1 each for Alliance, SDLP, UUP, SF
Collin (6 seats): 5 SF, 1 SDLP
Court (6 seats): 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 PUP, 1 TUV
Lisnasharragh (6 seats): 2 for Alliance, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP
Oldpark (6 seats): 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 PUP
Ormiston (7 seats): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 2 Alliance, 1 Green
Titanic (6 seats): 2 DUP, 1 each for Alliance, SF, UUP, PUP

So that comes to 19 SF, 13 DUP, 8 Alliance, 7 SDLP, 7 UUP, 3 PUP, 1 TUV, 1 Green, 1 People Before Profit.

[YL]

Ards & North Down: DUP 17, UUP 9, Alliance 7, Greens 3, SDLP 1,TUV 1, Ind 2
(Green seats in two of the Bangor DEAs and the Holywood one; TUV in Comber; SDLP in Ards Peninsula, obviously)

Lisburn & Castlereagh: DUP 20, UUP 8, Alliance 7, SDLP 3, TUV 1, NI21 1.
(TUV in Castlereagh East; NI21 in Lisburn North - so they did win a seat somewhere.  DUP have exactly half the seats here.)

Newry, Mourne & Down: SF 14, SDLP 14, DUP 4, UUP 3, Alliance 2, UKIP 1, Ind 2
(Alliance in Rowallane and Slieve Croob; UKIP in The Mournes)

Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon: DUP 13, UUP 12, SF 8, SDLP 6, UKIP 1, Ind 1
(UKIP in Portadown.  The UUP got most first preferences here, but the DUP won more seats.)

Fermanagh & Omagh: SF 17, UUP 9, SDLP 8, DUP 5, Ind 1

Derry & Strabane: SF 16, SDLP 10, DUP 8, UUP 2, Ind 4

Causeway Coast & Glens: DUP 11, UUP 10, SF 7, SDLP 6, TUV 3, Alliance 1, PUP 1, Ind 1
(Alliance in Causeway; PUP in Coleraine; in Benbradagh DEA the only Unionist elected, Boyd Douglas, was for the TUV)

Mid & East Antrim: DUP 16, UUP 9, TUV 5, SF 3, Alliance 3, UKIP 1, Ind 2
(TUV got two in Bannside; UKIP got a seat in Carrick Castle)