Romania 2014 - 2/16 November 2014

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So there's a presidential election in Romania on November 2 and 16. The candidates are listed below, but keep in mind that, this being Romania, all candidates are tools or nutcases. The incumbent President, Traian Băsescu, who is... quite the personality (and largely an abrasive bully and polarizing figure, but one who hasn't accomplished anything besides being hated and 2 impeachment attempts despite 10 years in office), is term-limited.

I will complete the post a bit later.

[politicus]

So there's a presidential election in Romania on November 2 and 6. The candidates are listed below, but keep in mind that, this being Romania, all candidates are tools or nutcases. The incumbent President, Traian Băsescu, who is... quite the personality (and largely an abrasive bully and polarizing figure, but one who hasn't accomplished anything besides being hated and 2 impeachment attempts despite 10 years in office), is term-limited.

I will complete the post a bit later.

Second round is on the 16th. Two weeks in between the rounds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_presidential_election,_2014

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Candidates:
Victor Ponta, Prime Minister - the incumbent PM (since 2012) is the candidate of the ruling Social Democrats (PSD) supported the Conservative Party (PC), which is actually the personal machine of oligarch and ex-Securitate asset Dan Voiculescu, and the UNPR, a tiny party by opportunistic PSD-PNL dissidents in 2010 who supported Basescu but who fled back to the PSD as soon as Basescu became a liability. Ponta is a vile bully and wannabe autocrat, but he's not the brightest bulb out there and is also a plagiarist. His political mentor (and doctoral thesis adviser, ie the thesis which he plagiarized) is former PM Adrian Năstase, who is now in jail for corruption (he needed to be literally dragged there because he tried to shoot himself in a theatrical but botched attempt not to go to jail). The PSD is hardly 'left-wing', being in reality a collection of corrupt old communist bosses and Securitate officials, with authoritarian leanings and a tendency to use cheap nationalism for electoral gain. It's debatable whether the PSD has actually become more reformist since the EU accession process or if reforms were deceitful, aimed at tricking the EU into accepting Romania and putting up an outward appearance of change while a corrupt and autocratic elite blocked real change. Ponta has been thoroughly unremarkable as PM - as soon as he got into office, the first order of business was to kick off a Grade 1-level schoolyard brawl with his nemesis, Basescu, and unsuccessfully try to get him impeached on flimsy ground; while at the same time acting like a tinpot autocrat by trying to attack judicial independence (but unlike Orbán he didn't go on to act like a sabre-rattling blowhard when challenged) and reforming the media laws to favour Voiculescu. Ponta does remain the heavy favourite to win, though.

Klaus Iohannis, mayor of Sibiu - an ethnic German (and Protestant, unlike most Romanians), who has been the very popular mayor of Sibiu since 2000. Left the German party in 2013 to join the National Liberal Party (PNL), a right-wing liberal party formerly led by Crin Antonescu, also a tool. The PNL was originally allied to Basescu until they quickly had a falling out in 2007, and gradually moved towards the PNL. In the 2009 presidential election, Antonescu endorsed the PSD's doltish candidate in the runoff, who lost by a hair to Basescu. Iohannis had been nominated by the PSD, PNL and Hungarians to replace Basescu's man as PM if they won the election. The PNL and PSD formed a coalition, the USL, in 2011, which won a massive landslide in 2012 (60% of the vote). Antonescu was supposed to be the USL's presidential candidate, but then the PNL got pissed at the PSD for sidelining it and they left the government in February. Now there's a new alliance, the Christian Liberal Alliance, which includes the PNL, the right-wing Democratic Liberal Party (PDL) - Basescu's former party and the small Civic Force led by former PM Mihai Razvan Ungureanu. He should be the other runoff contender.

Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, former Prime Minister (2004-2008) and President of the Senate - a former PM, from the PNL, during Basescu's first term in office (2004-2009). Originally an ally of Basescu, relations between the two went south as early as 2005 and dismissed the pro-Basescu ministers in 2007, continuing to govern in a minority government until 2008. He is running as an independent (for the unregistered Liberal Reformist Party), having left the PNL in February 2014 after the PNL left the Ponta government/USL (in return, Tăriceanu was elected as President of the Senate with the PSD's support to replace Antonescu); he also opposed the PNL's later alliance with the PDL and departure from the ALDE for the EPP.

Elena Udrea, former Minister of Regional Development and Tourism - Udrea is the candidate of the People's Movement Party (PMP), the new Basescu party. Basescu lost control of the PDL in 2013, when his protege Udrea was defeated in a PDL leadership election by Vasile Blaga, a former president of the Senate who wished to follow a more independent line. After her defeat, Băsescu announced that he was cutting off ties with the PDL and he formed his own party, which has little ideology besides supporting Basescu (who his himself an abrasive "anti-communist" conservative populist who swears like the former sailor he is and attacks opponents in foul-mouthed tirades). The PMP includes some other Basescu loyalists like former foreign minister Teodor Baconschi, former culture minister Theodor Paleologu and Basescu's Paris Hilton-ite showgirl ditzy daughter/former MEP Elena Basescu. Udrea served as a loyal attack dog in the palace for her boss in 2005, and later returned as tourism minister under PM Emil Boc (2008-2012). Basescu got into some hot water when Ponta whined about him wearing a PMP tshirt (which is probably unconstitutional), and Basescu basically told Ponta to go f[color=black]u[/color]ck himself.

Hunor Kelemen, Minister of Culture - the candidate of the UDMR, the Hungarian minority party. The UDMR doesn't really care about the orientation of the government, meaning that they've participated in both PDL and PSD-led governments - it was in government under Popescu-Tăriceanu (2004-2008), Emil Boc's second minority government (2009-2012, after the PSD left the weird coalition government which Basescu imposed on them in 2008), the stopgap Ungureanu cabinet (2012) and the 3rd Ponta government since earlier this year after the PNL left. Despite this, they've achieved very little - their old pet issue of regional autonomy for the Székely Land has gotten nowhere. They do manage to piss off Romanians when they troll around with saying that they're not Romanians. They have a solid base of 5-7%.

Dan Diaconescu, TV mogul - the leader of the populist People's Party-Dan Diaconescu (PP-DD) and a nutcase who should rather run for president of the local loony bin. He is the owner of the OTV TV channel and the host of his own popular talk-show on OTV, a sensationalist and very populist ‘infotainment’ show (which became famous for presenting the case of a lawyer who disappeared, presumably murdered by her husband). He had begun going after Băsescu in 2010 (after getting arrested for blackmailing a politician - in fact, he announced his presidential candidacy right after he was released), and grandly proclaimed himself (and OTV) to be the messiah and only opponent of Băsescu’s dictatorial-like regime. His going into politics was partly an attempt to escape sanctions for repeated violations of broadcasting rules and tax evasion. His party promised giving €20,000 to Romanians who start a business, raising all salaries and pensions and cutting salaries for MPs and top officials. The PP-DD won about 14% of the vote, but Diaconescu himself was defeated in Ponta's district. He lost interest quickly thereafter and Diaconescu’s OTV was shut down by the National Audiovisual Council in January 2013 after it was showed that OTV had not paid over 1 million lei in fines. Diaconescu was sentenced to three years in prison in December 2013 on the charge of blackmailing a mayor, and OTV briefly linked up with România TV, a channel owned by a PSD deputy. He's an all-around nutcase who won a privatization bid but then couldn't cough up the cash to pay for it, and who is certain that he's the next President because all Presidents' names have ended in 'escu'. The PP-DD has collapsed, its MPs defecting everywhere and the party winning only 3.7% in the EP elections.

Monica Macovei, MEP and former Minister of Justice (2004-2007) - a PDL dissident running as an independent. She's a former prosecutor and activist, who became justice minister after Basescu's election and is credited with the judicial reform, which democratized the justice system and strengthened anti-corruption mechanisms and institutions (such as giving the independent anti-corruption body the power to indict corrupt MPs and officials). She was widely loathed by PSD and PC MPs for being too nosy in corruption business, and even the PDL wasn't overly fond of her (she got trounced in the 2013 leadership election). Close to Basescu, she broke with him when she stayed in the PDL in 2013. She broke with the PDL last month, opposing Iohannis' candidacy.

Corneliu Vadim Tudor, former MEP - an insane lunatic, running for the fifth time for the far-right Greater Romania Party (PRM). He was originally a ‘court poet’ for Ceaușescu, writing sycophantic poetry praising the greatness of Ceaușescu; then became a populist madman spewing crap mixing nostalgia for Ceaușescu’s national communism, praise for wartime pro-Nazi dictator Ion Antonescu, anti-Semitism (although he claims to have moved beyond that), racism/xenophobia (Roma, Hungarians obviously) and irredentism (Greater Romania fantasies). The PRM supported a PSD government from 1992 to 1996, along with other beyond-the-pale crazies. In 2000, the PRM became the second largest party in Parliament and Tudor placed second in the presidential election, with 28% in the first round but losing 67-33 to the PSD's corrupt former second-tier communist apparatchik Ion Iliescu. The PRM won 13% in 2004 and has more or less collapsed since then, with brief upticks in support every now and again. It's mostly down the sh**tter now, though. Gheorghe Funar, another nationalist fruitcake from the 1990s (when he participated in a ponzi scheme), is fighting Tudor for the PRM leadership and is running as an independent.

You also have the usual bunch of also-rans from small parties.

[Famous Mortimer]

You left out the important part about how Basescu was originally a social democrat.

[Zanas]

Is there any decent choice, like at all ?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I am actually in Romania on the weekend of the first round.  Should be fun.

[politicus]

Ponta will get around 40% according to recent polls. Only 52,6% expects to vote according to the latest poll.

"Latest data suggest that Ponta will get around 40 per cent in the first round on November 2, well ahead of the likely runner up, the candidate of the rightist opposition coalition, Klaus Iohannis. Ponta is then expected to win the run-off, which takes place two weeks later."

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/low-turnout-expected-in-romanian-presidential-election

[politicus]

Basescu has accused Ponta of being a spy!

“Victor Ponta has to admit being an undercover officer for the Foreign Intelligence Agency [SIE] between 1997 and 2001. I have clear evidence of this and am ready to prove my words”

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/spying-rows-dominates-romania-s-presidential-elections

[politicus]

Romania's Electoral Management Body: http://www.roaep.ro/en/section.php?id=66

Results should be published here.

[EPG]

Any more info on the likely round 2 contestants?

[politicus]

Facts:

18.3 million Romanians are eligible to vote.

Preliminary results will be available 10.30PM EET (8.30PM GMT) - 1,5 hours after the polls close. Final results should be announced within 48 hours.


Important because:

The President has a number of significant prerogatives, including the right to nominate the Prime Minister, the chiefs of intelligence services and the heads of anti-corruption bodies. The next President will also play a central role in appointing a team to oversee IMF-backed reforms taking place under the terms of a 4-billion-euros standby deal. A review of the loan deal has been postponed pending the outcome of the election.


Who wins?

According to the polls Prime Minister Victor Ponta (42) from PSD.

Polls say Ponta will get around 40% in today's first round, well ahead of likely runner up Klaus Iohannis from the centre-right opposition coalition. Ponta then faces Iohannis in the second round where he is likely to get around 53%.

Nobody else has a chance.


Ponta has promised more jobs, bigger salaries and pensions, changes to the constitution to clarify the powers and duties of the President, the government, parliament and local authorities.

Ponta has also promised to be a "less aggressive" President than the outgoing incumbent, Traian Basescu, trying to get support from people who feel that Basescu was too impulsive and divisive.

Ponta’s critics fear his win will consolidate the ruling coalition's grip on power to an unhealthy degree and threaten the independence of the judiciary, prosecutors and media.


Iohannis (55) has constructed his electoral campaign by playing on his ethnic German background and reputation for efficiency.

He supports economic reform - backed by a good relationship with international lenders - under an EU umbrella, but according to observers many voters find his campaign promises bland and uninspiring.


Why the voters don’t really care

"Analysts say the lack of a clear agenda on the part of most candidates, as well as a perception of clientism and corruption, has contributed to a lack of interest on the part of the voters.

Many public debates were also based on rumours and accusations related to the private lives of the candidates, such as how many houses Iohannis owns, or whether Ponta was or wasn't a former agent for the secret services."

Turnout  is expected to be 52-53%. In the last presidential elections in 2009 54.3% voted in the first round and 56.9% in the run-off.

[Beagle]

34.57% turnout at 16:00. Best areas:  Ilfov (Bucharest suburbia) - 40,1%, Sibiu - 39%, Olt - 39,1%, worst: Satu Mare - 27,1%, Covasna - 27,4%, Maramures - 28,7%.
 
The leaked exit polls from 13:00 seem to suggest a slight dip in the Ponta numbers (38-40% range) and an uptick in the Iohannis numbers, but nothing extraordinary. Macovei seems to be getting about 10%  - still woefully behind the top two, but at least ahead of the freak show.

[EPG]

Thanks for info.

The President appoints the Prime Minister. We see from other countries like Lithuania that the agenda-setting power of such appointments can be important in deciding who participates in coalitions, even when the parliamentary majority is otherwise clear.

Are Germans a prestige ethnic group in Romania? Or is "efficiency" just a positive ethnic stereotype like those used in David McAllister's campaign?

I guess if the main two candidates are assured, turnout in this round doesn't matter much.

[politicus]

Are Germans a prestige ethnic group in Romania? Or is "efficiency" just a positive ethnic stereotype like those used in David McAllister's campaign?

Mainly the latter I would say, Germans also have a reputation for honesty (relative to Romanians) as well as efficiency. So his image as the "clean, efficient and honest manager" fits the German stereotype well.

[Beagle]

Polls have closed (for the most part).

All pollsters have Ponta between 43 and 38% and Iohannis between 32% and 31%. There are wide discrepancies for 3rd place, with Tariceanu, Udrea and Macovei having at least one pollster declaring for them. It's pretty clear, though, that none of them will pass the 10% mark.

[Beagle]

So, with 91.33% in, this is where we stand:

Turnout - 53.1%. Odd, this has gone up by half a percent since the BEC's official announcement of the end of the voting.

Ponta - 40.01% - runoff
Iohannis - 30.54% - runoff
Tariceanu - 5.46%
Udrea - 5.17%
Macovei - 4.51%
Diaconescu - 3.94%
Kelemen - 3.66%
Vadim-Tudor - 3.65%

Places that have a significant number of outstanding votes: Constanta (they must be still stuffing the ballot boxes as we speak, still at 40% 10 hours after closing), the PSD strongholds Olt and Vrancea, the PDL/PNL-favoring Bacau, Arad and Bihor, as well as Bucharest 4 and 5, which should be closely contested, though with Ponta on top.

There was some ugliness in the Romanian embassies abroad (mostly Paris, London and Vienna), where the voting procedure was extremely slow and voters who stood in line for hours were turned away as soon as the clock struck 9, because the Electoral commission declined all requests for extension abroad. Probably just a coincidence that Ponta is losing the precincts outside Romania by 50+%.

All in all, no surprises.

[Beagle]

The BEC, in their infinite government employee wisdom, have neglected to keep their previously announced schedule of releasing official vote counts because reasons. We have the 98.3% count which sees Ponta at 40.33% and Iohannis at 30.44%. If you want to see the basic map, google "Rezultate pe judete", though Ilfov and Bucharest has not reported in full yet (Giurgevo too, but it will be solidly red).

Some exit poll numbers:

Age breakdown of the voters for the major candidates:

Ponta: 18-34 - 19%, 35-49 - 26%, 50-64 - 31%, 65+ - 24%
Iohannis: 18-34 - 35%, 35-49 - 31%, 50-64 - 24%, 65+ - 10%

Education level (education is compulsory until the 10th grade):
Ponta: 10th grade or less - 44%, high school diploma - 41%, university degree - 15%
Iohannis: 10th grade or less - 23%, high school diploma - 48%, university degree - 29%

Because I'm still bitter and appalled that more people didn't support her: Macovei - 10th grade or less - 6%, high school - 45%, university degree - 49%

[Nhoj]

The regional divisions were very predictable. It also reminds me of that thread overlaying historical divisions on elections.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Because I'm still bitter and appalled that more people didn't support her: Macovei - 10th grade or less - 6%, high school - 45%, university degree - 49%

On Sunday I was staying in a hotel on Piata Universitatii in Bucharest.  As the name might suggest, it was about the only place I saw Macovei posters.  Ponta and Iohannis were everywhere.

[politicus]

The final results released by the Electoral Bureau today confirmed that Ponta won  first round of the presidential election with 40.44%, while Klaus Iohannis won 30.37% of the vote.

Ponta has already started campaigning for the second round of the presidential elections.

He has drawn the ethnic card and said only he can unite all Romanians, implying that Iohannis, as an ethnic German from Transylvania, can’t.

Nationalist populist Corneliu Vadim Tudor, who won 3.68%  has announced that he and his followers will support Ponta in the second round.

Ponta can also count on the support of Calin Popescu Tariceanu, who came third in the first round, with 5.36%. According to media reports Ponta is mulling making Tariceanu the next Prime Minister if he wins.

Iohannis on the contrary has said that he will not negotiate with other candidates to get the votes of their supporters in the second round.

“I will not directly negotiate with any politician, I want the votes of all Romanians who believe I can make a difference to Romanian politics”

Noble, but probably a mistake... Still, I suppose most liberals will support him anyway.

An important bloc of swing voters could be Romania's large ethnic Hungarian community make up about 7% of the electorate.
Its not clear whether their main party Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) will support Ponta, although the party is currently a member of the leftist coalition headed by Ponta’s Social Democrats. As the price of its support, the UDMR is likely to ask for backing for its plan to establish an autonomous region in Transylvania, comprising those areas where ethnic Hungarians are a majority and that will conflict the nationalist discourse Ponta is now using.

[Tender Branson]

The run-off is today.

Looks like relatively high turnout (for Romanian standards) so far until 2pm.

Based on the 2pm numbers, final turnout might be between 60-65%.

Don't know enough about Romanian elections though if high turnout benefits Ponta more, or Iohannis.

[Tender Branson]

The situation for Romanians who want to vote abroad at embassies is a catastrophe:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://english.hotnews.ro/stiri-top_news-18575670-romanians-form-queues-hundreds-meters-defiant-vote-key-presidential-elections.htm

...

There are speculations that the Socialist Ponta-government is deliberately blocking/messing with the embassy voting, because Iohannis crushed Ponta among expats in the first round of voting.

[Tender Branson]

4pm turnout:

44.5% (+9.4% compared with the 1st round)

On track for 62-63% turnout.

That would be the highest turnout since the 1st round of the 2000 election.

[Tender Branson]

Now that's what I call a "line":



Romanian expat voters @ the Paris embassy.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout remains strong: At 7pm, about 59% have voted.

Polls close at 9pm local time, so 63% still looks like the final turnout (+10%).

Pre-election polls showed Ponta winning the run-off by 10%, but I think it will be closer than that.

51-49 (but don't know who wins).