Canadian by-elections, 2015

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

[lilTommy]

Two NDP MLA in Nova Scotia both stepped down today

Gordie Gosse, MLA Sydney-Whitney Pier has been fighting Cancer (he looks terrible now) since last year and it looks to be taking a hard toll.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/gordie-gosse-cape-breton-mla-to-resign-1.3018938

Frank Corbett, MLA Cape Breton Centre, stepping down for family, personal reasons
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/frank-corbett-cape-breton-centre-mla-to-resign-1.3018977

Both seats became competitive for the Liberals in 2013, the NDP winning Sydney-Whitney Pier 49-43 and Cape Breton Centre 45-43. but compare that to 2009 where they NDP won with 71%(Gosse) and 78%(Corbett)
Three upcoming by-elections in NS, the NDPs best to just focus on these two instead of Dartmouth. Liberals seem to be still in a mild-honeymoon stage based on the last poll someone shared so the NDP might be at risk if the Liberals run high with strong candidates.

[DC Al Fine]

There will almost certainly be an austerity budget in NS next week. That ought to put the Liberals back to more reasonable numbers (read: 45% not 60%). I agree with lilTommy that Dartmouth South should be a write-off for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is terrible news for the NSNDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals need to tank quickly if the NDP wants to hold either seat. These are two seats with some actual NDP history to them, so I shouldn't be so quick to write them off. Gosse won with 71% in 2009 and Corbett had over 80%! Both narrowly lost in 2013, though.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals need to tank quickly if the NDP wants to hold either seat. These are two seats with some actual NDP history to them, so I shouldn't be so quick to write them off. Gosse won with 71% in 2009 and Corbett had over 80%! Both narrowly lost in 2013, though.

All is not lost. Those two ridings have a significant number of ancestral NDP voters, which is not something they have in most of Nova Scotia. Even though they only won the ridings by a few %, the NDP is in much better shape in Industrial Cape Breton than in say Queens-Shelburne or Chester-St. Margaret's.

[Lotuslander]

Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

While the NDP should be considered the favourites here (as it is their safest BC seat), I wouldn`t be surprised to see the Greens actually win this seat. Believe it or not.  Some reasons:

1. Prior to the May, 2013 election, the BC Greens were never heard from. And they had a dud for a leader.

2. Subsequent to the May, 2013 election, their first BC Green MLA Andrew Weaver (and only candidate for leadership) seems to be getting most of the media attention. Almost as if he is the de facto leader of the opposition. BC NDP leader Horgan is rarely in the media.

3. Inner areas of the City of Vancouver proper are fertile future political territory for the Greens - Kitsilano, West End, and Strathcona (where this riding is situate).

4. During the November, 2014 municipal election, the civic Greens came out of no where and elected 4 members to Vancouver municipal bodies including the poll topping councillor.

5. While the Greens ran a paper candidate here last time, they still came in 2nd in many polling stations and won a popular vote share as high as 27%.

6. This time the Greens will be running a `star` candidate here whose name remains under wraps:

`Keith Baldrey @keithbaldrey  ·  Apr 2

Tonight on @VoiceofBC @AJWVictoriaBC tells me Green Party is set to run well-known star candidate in looming Van-Mt. Pleasant byelexn.`

7. The Greens also have some `wedge` issues with the BC NDP - including total opposition to Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning, which would see vast increase in oil tanker traffic running right past this riding.

8. The Greens in BC (both provincially and federally) both have the wind in their sails and apparent momentum. OTOH, the NDP in BC does not.

Again, the BC NDP should still be considered the favourite here but I wouldn`t be surprised if the Greens take this by-election either.

PS. While the BC Libs received about 18% popular vote share here in 2013, wouldn`t be surprised to see their vote share drop to 10% or so with some movement from them over to the BC Greens as well.

[136or142]

Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

While the NDP should be considered the favourites here (as it is their safest BC seat), I wouldn`t be surprised to see the Greens actually win this seat. Believe it or not.  Some reasons:

1. Prior to the May, 2013 election, the BC Greens were never heard from. And they had a dud for a leader.

2. Subsequent to the May, 2013 election, their first BC Green MLA Andrew Weaver (and only candidate for leadership) seems to be getting most of the media attention. Almost as if he is the de facto leader of the opposition. BC NDP leader Horgan is rarely in the media.

3. Inner areas of the City of Vancouver proper are fertile future political territory for the Greens - Kitsilano, West End, and Strathcona (where this riding is situate).

4. During the November, 2014 municipal election, the civic Greens came out of no where and elected 4 members to Vancouver municipal bodies including the poll topping councillor.

5. While the Greens ran a paper candidate here last time, they still came in 2nd in many polling stations and won a popular vote share as high as 27%.

6. This time the Greens will be running a `star` candidate here whose name remains under wraps:

`Keith Baldrey @keithbaldrey  ·  Apr 2

Tonight on @VoiceofBC @AJWVictoriaBC tells me Green Party is set to run well-known star candidate in looming Van-Mt. Pleasant byelexn.`

7. The Greens also have some `wedge` issues with the BC NDP - including total opposition to Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning, which would see vast increase in oil tanker traffic running right past this riding.

8. The Greens in BC (both provincially and federally) both have the wind in their sails and apparent momentum. OTOH, the NDP in BC does not.

Again, the BC NDP should still be considered the favourite here but I wouldn`t be surprised if the Greens take this by-election either.

PS. While the BC Libs received about 18% popular vote share here in 2013, wouldn`t be surprised to see their vote share drop to 10% or so with some movement from them over to the BC Greens as well.

I may say you're a dreamer.

1.The Green Party received their highest share of the vote in British Columbia provincial elections in 2001 at 12.4%.  They declined to 9.2% in 2005, 8.2% in 2009 and then 8.1% in 2013.  To be fair, they obviously declined from 2001 to 2005 as disgruntled New Democrats returned 'home' and their 2013 vote share was actually an 'same store sale' increase as they ran only 61 candidates in 2013 vs a full slate of 85 in 2009.  

That said, I see no evidence the party has gained since 2001 except that their vote is now more concentrated in Southern Vancouver Island to the point where they can challenge for and win seats there.

2.Adrian Carr was actually first elected to City Council in 2011 and topped the polls in 2014, so she was far from a 'dud' as a leader.  This despite having previously run, and I believe, lived in Powell River-Sunshine Coast sometime prior to moving to Vancouver.  

Also, despite polls allegedly showing the Green Party was poised to win at least one more, and possibly two more seats on city council, their second showing candidate was actually well back in the pack.

3.While the Green Party may have received 27% of the vote in some parts of Vancouver-Mount Pleasant (still a very distant second), overall they received 11.9% of the vote in 2013, not much different from 2005 or 2009.

4.While Vancouver-Mount Pleasant was the Green Party's best riding in Vancouver in the 2013 election, it was only so by less than 1% over two other ridings.  While the Green Party does run on other issues and while nearly everybody is concerned about the environment, it's hard to believe that environmental concerns are the top of mind issues for the blue collar working class people in this riding.

I'd be shocked if the Green Party got over 20% of the vote here.

[DL]

Keep in mind that Jenny Kwan won't actually resign her provincial seat until the federal writ drop in September meaning that a by election in Vancouver-mount pleasant won't happen until November at the earliest

[adma]

5. While the Greens ran a paper candidate here last time, they still came in 2nd in many polling stations and won a popular vote share as high as 27%.

Now, that's a quackish claim.  Might as well suggest that the NDP has a serious chance in Don Valley West because they scored a solid second in many Thorncliffe/Flemingdon polls...

[MaxQue]

Probably a by-election in Chauveau (northern Québec City suburbs), as former journalist Gérald Deltell (CAQ, last leader of ADQ) will announce tomorrow he will be running for Conservative investiture in Louis-Saint-Laurent (north-west of Quebec City + L'Ancienne-Lorette). It's an NDP riding, but the incumbent Alexandrine Latendresse retires after one term.

It's the former riding of minister (and now Senator) Josée Verner, so if the Conservatives do well in Québec City, they should regain it easily.

[DL]

I agree tyhat at this stage Deltell should have an edge but the NDP is not giving up in Louis St. Laurent and is running a high powered candidate Daniel Caron who was until recently the Canadian ambassador to Ukraine

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

While the NDP should be considered the favourites here (as it is their safest BC seat), I wouldn`t be surprised to see the Greens actually win this seat. Believe it or not.  Some reasons:

1. Prior to the May, 2013 election, the BC Greens were never heard from. And they had a dud for a leader.

2. Subsequent to the May, 2013 election, their first BC Green MLA Andrew Weaver (and only candidate for leadership) seems to be getting most of the media attention. Almost as if he is the de facto leader of the opposition. BC NDP leader Horgan is rarely in the media.

3. Inner areas of the City of Vancouver proper are fertile future political territory for the Greens - Kitsilano, West End, and Strathcona (where this riding is situate).

4. During the November, 2014 municipal election, the civic Greens came out of no where and elected 4 members to Vancouver municipal bodies including the poll topping councillor.

5. While the Greens ran a paper candidate here last time, they still came in 2nd in many polling stations and won a popular vote share as high as 27%.

6. This time the Greens will be running a `star` candidate here whose name remains under wraps:

`Keith Baldrey @keithbaldrey  ·  Apr 2

Tonight on @VoiceofBC @AJWVictoriaBC tells me Green Party is set to run well-known star candidate in looming Van-Mt. Pleasant byelexn.`

7. The Greens also have some `wedge` issues with the BC NDP - including total opposition to Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning, which would see vast increase in oil tanker traffic running right past this riding.

8. The Greens in BC (both provincially and federally) both have the wind in their sails and apparent momentum. OTOH, the NDP in BC does not.

Again, the BC NDP should still be considered the favourite here but I wouldn`t be surprised if the Greens take this by-election either.

PS. While the BC Libs received about 18% popular vote share here in 2013, wouldn`t be surprised to see their vote share drop to 10% or so with some movement from them over to the BC Greens as well.

If that BC Green Candidate is Matt Toner http://www.straight.com/news/425421/matt-toner-announces-bid-vancouver-mount-pleasant-jump-ndp-greens I'm not sure i'd call him a star, but I think that is a good steal of a candidate, but the advantage even without a candidate is the NDP... and the NDP above all other parties (the membership at least) is brutal towards party switchers.

[136or142]

The story I heard on Matt Toner either on CBC, CKNW or News1130 only mentioned that the Green Party was trying to recruit him, not that they had successfully done so.  So, this is a bit of a surprise.

Toner is close to a star catch in that he is a new media businessman and a former diplomat with a PhD in economics.  He lost quite handily to Sam Sullivan in Vancouver-False Creek in 2013 but he did bring up the NDP share of the vote quite considerably.

That said, I'm not sure how somebody with his profile will play in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.

It seems the B.C Green Party is increasingly attracting left leaning, environmental business people as candidates.

I wonder if that businessperson/economist Matt Toner running for the B.C Greens means that the party has abondoned its previous ridiculous vision for the economy of essentially local autarky.

[Lotuslander]

I may say you're a dreamer.

2.Adrian Carr was actually first elected to City Council in 2011 and topped the polls in 2014, so she was far from a 'dud' as a leader.  This despite having previously run, and I believe, lived in Powell River-Sunshine Coast sometime prior to moving to Vancouver.

Obviously you don't even remember the BC Green Party leader in the past two BC provincial elections  - Jane Sterk! Carr has not been the BC Green party leader since 2005.

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If ya analyze the November 2014 Van City muni results, the civic Greens did best in the "working-class" West End, where renters prevail, and in the neighbourhoods of Strathcona/Mount Pleasant underlying this constituency of Vancouver-Mount Pleasant. Both strong BC NDP held areas or ridings in 2013.

Vancouver Mount-Pleasant has also many old refurbished 1920's era Edwardian homes as well as renters - fertile inner city "green" demographics.

The Van City civic Greens would have won all 3 council seats in both areas (West End and Mount Pleasant 'hoods) plus Vision Vancouver's Andrea Reimer (a former Green Party candidate) also basically topped the polls, for VV, here as well.

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Again, the Van City civic Greens had their best results both here and in the West End. Basically same "working class" demographics.

Very important considerations:

1. BC NDP is basically moribund - aimless and drifting. Have not seen the BC NDP in this bad shape since the post-2001 debacle;

2. The Greens oppose the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning as well as the corresponding increase in oil tanker traffic in Vancouver Harbour, which abuts this riding.

The BC NDP held a similar position during the 2013 provincial election campaign, which bolstered the BC NDP vote in inner Van City - winning Van-Point Grey and Van-Fairview as a result. Won over the "green vote" as well as former "green" BC Lib voters. Only area where the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" increased BC NDP vote share in BC.

Today, the BC NDP is sitting on the fence on KM with a wishy-washy" stance. In politics, that which you don’t oppose you’re taken to support. Will be a "wedge issue" right there between the BC Greens and BC NDP during the by-election. In fact, May of the fed Greens has already stated that she will use that as a "wedge issue" with fed NDP in BC.
 

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Not only is former high-profile 2013 BC NDP candidate Matt Toner of neighbouring Van-False Creek running for the nomination but also Van City muni council Green candidate Pete Fry. Who would have ever thunk a BC Green Party nomination battle? Especially in this riding?

Again with:

1. The BC NDP still in a complete funk after 2013, still floundering aimlessly with no momentum at all;

2. BC NDP leader Horgan receiving hardly any media attention;

3. BC Green MLA Weaver portrayed in the media as basically the de facto opposition leader;

4. The BC Greens with all of the poli momentum and the wind in their sails in BC these days;

4. A  by-election likely after the fed election whereby the fed Greens likely to receive another BC seat and increased popular vote share providing further momentum to their BC Greens cousins...

As a result, I can foresee the eventual by-election outcome here as follows:

BC NDP - 50%
BC Green - 40%
BC Lib - 10%

But since it is a by-election, with different poli dynamics, anything can happen. Just witness the previous 2012 fed by-election in Victoria. No one ever previously foresaw the Greens "almost" winning that riding. Ever.

And the Greens are likely to win Victoria in 2015. If that surge crosses the Strait of Georgia - Akin to inner Van City areas of Kitsilano, West End, Mount Pleasant, and Strathcona - same poli dynamic.

PS. I don't vote for the Greens. Just analytically call 'em as I see 'em.

[DL]

That's funny, I've just been reading several opinion pieces about how well the BC NDP has been doing of late drawing blood from Christy Clark on various scandals and policies flubs and how John Horgan has been really hitting his stride and how the BC NDP is now leading the BC Liberals in polls and would win an election if it were held today...meanwhile if Andrew Weaver is supposed to be an opposition leader he sure has a strange way of showing it what with voting in favour of Christy Clark's latest rightwing budget.

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant is a very very very bad fit for the Green Party - they tend to do well among very wealthy people who have solar panels on their roofs and who shop at Whole Foods - that's how they won Oak Bay - working class folk tend to have no time for them whatsoever...and now that the BC NDP has a leader in Horgan who resonates really well with working class people, its hard to imagine why anyone would be attracted to an upper class twit with a posh British accent like QWeaver in an inner city poor seat like Mount Pleasant

[Lotuslander]

That's funny, I've just been reading several opinion pieces about how well the BC NDP has been doing of late drawing blood from Christy Clark on various scandals and policies flubs and how John Horgan has been really hitting his stride and how the BC NDP is now leading the BC Liberals in polls and would win an election if it were held today

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OTOH, today from the Victoria Times-Colonist:

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[136or142]

http://www.straight.com/news/426176/ndp-prospects-eye-election-nomination-vancouver-mount-pleasant

Names mentioned as possible candidates
1.Sarah Blyth
2.Diana Day, 2014 COPE School Board candidate
3.Mira Oreck
4. Emma Wan-Chin Lee

[DL]

Its not surprising that the BC NDP would have had bad fundraising numbers last year - who was going to give money to a leaderless party that was still under the interim leadership of Adrian Dix. But now that the popular John Horgan who has a great common touch has taken over and is filling NDPers with optimism again, i think you will see those numbers strat to shift dramatically.

I don't know too many struggling working class people who want to "move away from an economy based on growth"...you have to be very well off and comfortable to want to "end economic growth" - and banning GMOs is not exactly a top of mind issue for more than .01% of the population. I have yet to see an explanation for why the lone Green MLA voted in favour of Christy Clark's rabidly rightwing budget?

I hope the Greens don't overplay expectations in Mt. Pleasant since it could be embarrassing when they get about 10% of the vote

[Citizen Hats]

That's funny, I've just been reading several opinion pieces about how well the BC NDP has been doing of late drawing blood from Christy Clark on various scandals and policies flubs and how John Horgan has been really hitting his stride and how the BC NDP is now leading the BC Liberals in polls and would win an election if it were held today...meanwhile if Andrew Weaver is supposed to be an opposition leader he sure has a strange way of showing it what with voting in favour of Christy Clark's latest rightwing budget.

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant is a very very very bad fit for the Green Party - they tend to do well among very wealthy people who have solar panels on their roofs and who shop at Whole Foods - that's how they won Oak Bay - working class folk tend to have no time for them whatsoever...and now that the BC NDP has a leader in Horgan who resonates really well with working class people, its hard to imagine why anyone would be attracted to an upper class twit with a posh British accent like QWeaver in an inner city poor seat like Mount Pleasant

Conceptions of who lives in East Van are becoming rapidly out of date. Hell, I live in East Van.  There's a gluten free bakery on my block, and an olive oil tasting room three blocks east. 

[136or142]

Two First Nations women may enter NDP nomination race in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

http://www.straight.com/news/433521/two-first-nations-women-may-enter-ndp-nomination-race-vancouver-mount-pleasant

[Hatman 🍁]

Today is the by-election in The Pas

Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/the-pas-manitoba-provincial-by-election.html

[Hatman 🍁]

3/59 reporting:

NDP: 70
PC: 52
Lib: 20

[trebor204]

PC's now leading in Manitoba

10 Polls
206 - PC
202 - NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP back on top (16/59)

NDP: 347
PC: 313
Lib: 168