German state and local elections, September 2006

[minionofmidas]

Coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two German states which are currently governed by a SPD/Left Party coalition. Probably not so coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two states where the local WASG chapters are vehemently opposed to the proposed merger between their party and the Left Party.PDS.

This is not quite true. Actually they are deeply divided on the issue, as are most of the other Eastern state chapters. (Notice that except for Berlin, all the eastern chapters of the WASG are ridiculously small.) It's just that in these two states, opponents are in a majority... at least among those party members who bother about making their views known.

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It should be pointed out that the people currently running the Berlin WASG are basically a Trotskyite sect.

[minionofmidas]

the Bezirksverordnetenversammlung (borough assembly).

I love the length of that name.  It makes me smile --> .

Yeah, if we were English grammar and conventions users we'd make and spell that Versammlung of Bezirks' Verordnete. Which is actually a slightly longer word but looks like it's three words.

[minionofmidas]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

Looks like Red-Red-Green coalition to me. Is that the current power structure in Berlin already?

As far as i know, there´s a SPD-Left Party-Coalition in Berlin right now.

That's correct.

And other options aside from a SPD/Left.PDS/Green coalition (more or less in the order of its likelihood) would a be Grand coalition, a SPD/Green/FDP coalition, or a CDU/Green/FDP coalition.

Not really. Noone in the SPD wants the Grand Coalition back. Noone wants the FDP in either, not really, given the conduct of the Berlin FDP in opposition the last few years.
So the order of probabilities is
SPD-Left (well over 50%. PDS is usually underpolled in Berlin city polls.)
SPD-Left-Green (if there is no majority for SPD-Left)
SPD-Green (possible and not even unlikely if there's a majority for that and it's more than one or three seats wide)
CDU-FDP (from here on down, we're on "very unlikely" territory)
SPD-Greens-FDP
CDU-Greens-FDP
SPD-CDU

Then, talks about the formation of a coalition between SPD, Greens, and FDP began. However, after several weeks/months of negotiations, the talks failed and the city-state ended up a with a SPD/PDS coalition instead. Some people from the CDU and FDP claimed that this had been Wowereit's plan in the first place and that the talks between SPD, Greens, and FDP had only served as an alibi for him to form a coalition with the PDS in the end, but no one will ever be able to prove this.[/quote]Since most people had assumed that this was the most likely outcome - the most reasonable outcome, even - as soon as the results were coming in, I have no trouble believeing it at all. The negotiations with the FDP just served to demonstrate to those on the SPD right that the FDP was not in a state to govern anything, and that there was therefore no alternative.

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Long before 2001, that part.

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[minionofmidas]

NPD is going to get in. Count on it.

[minionofmidas]

NPD is going to get in. Count on it.

Do polls tend to underestimate them?

Yes, except where they have a history of being represented ... and due to the MVP state elections being held at the same time as the federal elections in 02, 98, and 94, far right parties don't have much of a track record in state elections there (since turnout was higher than usual in Eastern state elections; and in 2002 the NPD was reeling under the government's failed attempt to ban it).
The NPD does have a base in local elections in the state, though. Quite a strong one. The way their campaign is going, it's reminding a lot of people of Saxony.

On a related note, Government job approval for the Grand Coalition is as bad as the last government's was when it went out.

[minionofmidas]

Correction. The NPD does not have a strong local elections base, at least not on the district level. (no weaker than here in Hesse, though) They ran in only four districts (East Lower Pomerania, Müritz, Ludwigslust, and city of Stralsund), taking 3.6% of the vote across areas where they stood, or 0.8% across the state. I don't know about municipalities.
Indy slates took a largeish share of the vote, and some of them may be of a far-right nature.
The last local election was held on the same date as the 2004 Euros.

[minionofmidas]

In other news, Gerhard Grandke won't run for state PM of Hessen in 2008. So now it's probably Andrea Ypsilanti or Jürgen Walter, neither of whom exactly has high name recognition.

[minionofmidas]

Wahlomat for Berlin

Click on the graphic at top right (the one that says Wahlomat Berlin), then "start".
Buttons are, left to right, "agree", "neutral", "do not agree". The fourth button makes the question move to the end of the questionnaire, I think.

Questions translations:
"Shop opening hours in Berlin should be unrestricted Monday to Saturday".
"The BVG [public transport provider] should remain completely owned by the State of Berlin."
"Graffiti sprayers should be pursued intensively by police."
"All Berlin primary schools should be open during the afternoon as well."
"'Head' grades (e.g. for 'conduct', 'industriousness') should be reintroduced."
"Automatic promotion should be introduced in Berlin schools."
"Berlin city motorways should be expanded further."
"Diesel cars without soot filter should be banned from the inner city area."
"Barge traffic in Berlin should be expanded."
"The trade tax rate should be increased."
"The city-owned housing corporations should be sold."
"Hard drugs should be given to the heavily addicted for free, in a controlled environment."
"The state government should push for an abolition of the MAE scheme (so called one Euro jobs)."
"Students should be able to opt-out of the newly introduced compulsory ethics classes by taking religion classes instead."
"Berlin universities should remain free of fees fr those who do not yet have a uni degree."
"The expansion of the subway network should have priority over the expansion of the streetcar network."
"More roads should be turned into cycling routes". (This is what it literally says. I'm nto sue if that is literally what they meant, though.)
"The state-owned hospital company, Vivantes, should be wholly privatized."
"There should be equal numbers of men and women in the next Berlin city government."
"Compulsory preschool classes should be introduced for children without sufficient German skills."
"Berlin should push for a national smoking ban in pubs and restaurants."
"All policemen should be required to wear badges with their name or an identifying number."
"The state should support private schools more."
"Parents who repeatedly refuse help by the CPS should be punishable with cuts in welfare payments."
"There should be a legal claim for crèche places for under 3-year olds."
"The threepartite school system of Hauptschule, Realschule and Gymnasium should be preserved."
"More public spaces should be made available to independent theater companies for free."
"Berlin cops should be allowed to shoot to kill as a last resort in danger situations."
"District mayors should be directly elected."
"Tempelhof airport should remain in use alongside the large Schönefeld (Berlin-Brandenburg International) airport." (What about Tegel airport? )

[I notice that lots of these questions are too vague, and lots are easily misunderstood without knowing the legal and societal framework within which the questions will have to be resolved, but nvm all that. ]

After that you get to a screen with two buttons. Right button gives you the unweighted results, left button allows to weight he results by checking all those questions that you find especially important. To get to the results from that, click "Ergebnis anzeigen" in the lower righthand corner.

My result:
1) WASG
2) Greens         
smallest gap here
3) Left.PDS       
largest gap here
4) SPD
5) FDP
6) CDU

[minionofmidas]

Damn, the Nazis at 7% ? Hopefully their campaign implodes and they won´t come into the state parliament.

Yippi, i´m a YaBB God now

BTW what is a YaBB God ?

They wont. They've gotten into state parliament before. Those Easterns must like totalitarianism.

Well YaBB is a forum code that was used on this forum before phpbb and the term YaBB God wasn't changed when we changed formats.

Yeah of course its a forum code that you have more than 500 posts but for what stands YaBB ? Do you probably know ?

Yet another Bulletin Board.

[minionofmidas]

List of plurality switches
to SPD
Götingen district (southernmost on map)
Lüneburg district (isolated SPD district in NE)

to CDU
Wittmund district (isolated CDU district on NW coast)

SPD gains majority (had plurality before)
Emden city (yeah well, should be obvious)

CDU loses majority (but keeps plurality)
Grafschaft Bentheim district (westernmost on map)
Osnabrück rural district (big one south of the CDU majority districts)

[minionofmidas]

SPD seems to be strongest party in both West and (barely) East Berlin. Low Left showing in Berlin is a surprise. Apparently WASG, NPD and REP are all ~3%, which explains the insanely high "other" figure, haven't seen exact figures yet.

EDIT: WASG 2.9%, NPD 2.6% (90-odd% of ballots counted), REP just 0.9%, but Die Grauen 3.8%!

[minionofmidas]

You forgot to mention turnout, which at 59.2% was better than I feared (though down 11.4 points).

BERLIN
Turnout 58.0% (-10.1!)
SPD 30.8% (+1.1) 53 seats (+9)
CDU 21.3% (-2.5) 37 seats (+2)
Left 13.4% (-9.2) 23 seats (-10)
Greens 13.1% (+4.0) 23 seats (+9)
FDP 7.6% (-2.3) 13 seats (-2)
Graue 3.8% (+2.4)
WASG 2.9% (+2.9)
NPD 2.6% (+1.7)
other 4.5% (+1.9)

Berlin redistributes mandates to districts ... creating overhang at that level ... but, unlike Bundestag elections, also creating additional mandates for other parties to make the result proportional again ... thence the parliament is always larger than the nominal 127, and always a different size. It was 169 in 1999, 141 in 2001, now it's 149.

Direct seats won
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
CDU 20 (+8)
SPD 15 (-9) - the CDU did narrowly outpoll the SPD in the constituency vote -
Left 1 (+1)

Left mandate is the smallest in Rostock (5).
SPD wins all of Schwerin, Wismar, Nordwestmecklenburg, Ludwigslust, northern Parchim, western Güstrow for a ten-seat belt in the west, plus the three remaining Rostock seats, district 3 in Neubrandenburg and Mecklenburg-Strelitz, and district 21 in Mecklenburg-Strelitz.

Berlin
SPD 40 (+14) (and up 40 on 1999. )
CDU 19 (no change) (down 27 on 1999 though. )
Left 14 (-18) (down 16 on 1999)
Greens 5 (+4) (up 3 on 1999)

reddish - SPD
blueish - CDU
purplish - Left
greenish - greens
lightest shade - lead under 2 points (not needed for Greens)
middle shade - 2 to 10 points
darkest shade - over 10 points

Districts were changed on 2001 (and now do not follow the boundaries of the old 23 districts that were merged into the current 12 anymore), but the old Green district(s) were in Eastern Kreuzberg, the CDU 2001 results were roughly where they are now, and the Left swept all of old East Berlin that year. Literally all. Quite a marked change now.

[minionofmidas]

Turnout: 59.2% (-11.4%)

You forgot to mention turnout, which at 59.2% was better than I feared (though down 11.4 points).

You put it in the wrong place!

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And your maps don't add anything except that noone crossed fifty percent anywhere (okay, so that's interesting, I'll admit. )

[minionofmidas]

Oooh yeah. Top NPD result.
Municipality of Postlow, in Ostvorpommern.

Turnout 45%
Valid Votes 144
of which NPD 55 - 38.2%

[minionofmidas]

Actually, I've decided to do top and bottom results for turnout, all the major parties, the Greens, and others.

Top Turnout
Zülow 82.6 (+2.6) SPD 37.7 (-7.8) CDU 27.0 (-1.2) FDP 12.3 (+2.3) NPD 11.5 (+9.7) Left 5.7 (-0.7) Greens 0.8 (-1.9) other 4.9 (-0.6)

Bottom Turnout
Dreschwitz 35.6 (-12.8) CDU 32.3 (-5.7) SPD 23.0 (-8.8) Left 19.0 (+3.9) FDP 14.2 (+8.7) NPD 7.1 (+6.1) Greens 2.2 (-0.2) other 2.2 (-4.0)

Top SPD, bottom CDU
Blankenberg 65.9 (-10.9) SPD 60.4 (-1.6) CDU 12.5 (-5.1) LEft 10.8 (-3.4) NPD 10.0 (+10.0) FDP 2.9 (+1.9) Greens 1.7 (-0.3) other 1.7 (-1.4)

Bottom SPD
Rathebur 66.4 (+3.6) CDU 50.0 (-3.9) NPD 25.0 (+22.4) Left 12.5 (+2.0) SPD 7.5 (-25.4) FDP 1.3 (+1.3) Greens 1.3 (+1.3) other 2.4 (+2.4)

Top CDU, Bottom Left
Groß Wüstenfelde 59.2 (-11.4) CDU 68.4 (+1.2) SPD 11.6 (-11.4) FDP 6.2 (+2.6) NPD 5.3 (+5.3) Left 3.1 (-0.5) Greens 1.6 (0) other 3.8 (+2.2)

Top Left
Wilmshagen 47.2 (-10.0) Left 39.5 (+2.6) CDU 32.5 (+2.6) SPD 10.5 (-17.5) FDP 7.9 (+4.1) NPD 5.3 (+5.3) Greens 1.8 (+1.8) other 2.6 (+1.3)

Top FDP
Kummin 58.4 (-8.6) CDU 36.2 (-11.0) FDP 21.5 (+13.8) SPD 13.8 (-10.8) NPD 11.5 (+10.1) Left 6.9 (-7.9) Greens 2.3 (+1.6) other 7.7 (+4.2)

Bottom FDP
Langenhagen 65.7 (-6.5) SPD 47.7 (-0.7) Left 22.7 (+4.8) CDU 17.0 (-9.3) NPD 8.0 (+8.0) FDP 1.1 (-1.0) Greens 1.1 (-1.0) other 2.3 (-0.9)

Top NPD
Postlow 45.2 (-2.7) NPD 38.2 (+36.9) CDU 24.3 (-26.0) Left 13.9 (-1.1) FDP 12.5 (+10.5) SPD 9.7 (-17.1) Greens 0.7 (+0.7) other 0.7 (-3.9)

Bottom NPD
Silz 62.0 (-15.0) CDU 41.0 (-6.7) SPD 28.5 (-8.3) Left 15.0 (-3.2) FDP 8.5 (+3.1) Greens 2.0 (-1.3) NPD 0.0 (0) other 5.0 (+2.9)
Only place without a single NPD vote

Top Greens
Thandorf 62.4 (-22.2) SPD 30.1 (-21.3) CDU 28.0 (0) Greens 16.1 (+12.4) Left 9.7 (-0.6) FDP 9.7 (+8.8) NPD 4.3 (+3.4) other 2.2 (-2.5)

Bottom Greens
16 different places without a single Green vote

Top Other
Kuchelmiß 54.8 (-4.7) SPD 31.9 (-12.9) CDU 16.1 (-12.3) Left 12.9 (+2.6) NPD 10.6 (+9.8) FDP 7.1 (+2.6) Greens 4.5 (+0.5) other 16.9 (+9.4)

Bottom Other
7 different places without a single Other vote


Obviously these are all pretty small places.

[minionofmidas]

Oh yeah, Berlin's 12 districts each have an insanely large 55-member district assembly elected by Hare-Niemeyer with a 3% threshold, and a 6-member administration elected from the district assembly by D'Hondt. (The assembly decides who gets which responsibility, but they can't keep someone out just because he's the wrong party and they have a majority)
Here's party totals of seats in each across the city
SPD 219 / 30
CDU 163 / 20
Left 99 / 13
Greens 94 / 9
FDP 39
Graue 20
WASG 14
NPD 11
REP 1

[minionofmidas]

A chastised old partner is usually more pliable than a triumphant new one...
Surprised about MVP. Let's hope the talks get nowhere. Wouldn't put it beyond Ringstorff to try for a coalition with the CDU just to show people it can't be done...

[minionofmidas]

Bottom NPD
Silz 62.0 (-15.0) CDU 41.0 (-6.7) SPD 28.5 (-8.3) Left 15.0 (-3.2) FDP 8.5 (+3.1) Greens 2.0 (-1.3) NPD 0.0 (0) other 5.0 (+2.9)
Only place without a single NPD vote

Strongest Party: CDU

Elephant brain me... I'd always wanted to reply to that and somehow never got around to it.

Result across state's six cities (31% of vote total)
SPD 31.6%
CDU 24.8%
Left 19.3%
FDP 9.5%
NPD 5.6%
Greens 4.9%

Remainder of state:
CDU 30.5%
SPD 29.7%
Left 15.7%
FDP 9.6%
NPD 8.1%
Greens 2.7%