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The problem with Prez Biden is always Hunter we knew he was scandaled

Another big issue with polling is it suggests a pretty massive re-alignment despite not all that much changing since 2020; the candidates are the same and general messaging is simillar from both sides. There hasn’t been some massive recession or world war.

Elections that prompt large re-alignments have unique circumstances from previous elections like the recession + Obama in 2008 or going from Romney —> Trump in 2016.

https://twitter.com/WedgeLIVE/status/1792426479298458049

Crimea+Donetsk+Luhansk going to Russia and Ukraine joining NATO (or some other defensive agreement that has teeth to ensure this doesn't happen again) is the absolute floor. Ideally of course, Russia leaving entirely and Ukraine joining NATO, but that seems unlikely.

One of the few serious posts here and about what I would say.

Good lord Putin got under you guys's skin with the election interference stuff which is about the only reason I can think of why you're being so intense about this. You wuss out in Afghanistan, want Israel to roll over and just let Hamas take over their country, but then you don't want Ukraine to give up one foot of land even if it means WWII casualties. Some of you are even talking about regime change in Russia which presumably means starting WWIII and invading and hoping it goes better than all the other times in history that's been tried.

As I've said before if this is what it looks like when you're on someone's side in a war than you clearly weren't on the US's side against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

A final vote is beginning.

Nay

What worries me more is honestly the rise of pseudo-academic racists on these social media platforms, many verging on eugenics and stuff. Elon Musk has recently been engaging with a lot of these types on X.

The Los Angeles Unified School District is only 10% White; Boston Public Schools only 15%. 

Even public schools located in predominantly White neighborhoods (like University High School in Brentwood) are less than 20% White.  It's mostly because rich, White parents opt to send their kids to private schools.   

OK and my statement still stands, lol.

Your statement is irrelevant.  Both big city private schools and rural "segregation academies" serve mostly White families in areas where the overwhelming majority of school-aged children are non-White, and thus perpetuate racial segregation.

The ISO (which is the international body that sets standards across the financial services industry) has denied applications from New York- and California-based banks to create new merchant class codes for firearms and ammunition retailers.   

And good for them!  Payment processors shouldn't kowtow to pressure from anti-gun politicians and activists bent on creating what would functionally be a registry of gun owners.

Because basically no other metric besides polling suggests any sort of Trump landslide. Midterms and special elections. Donations and fundraising. Campaign offices and ground game. Demographics and demographic changes in key states.

Because none of these metrics matter. And demographic change is pointless when within that demographic you see a mass drop in turnout.

If demographic change in states was all that mattered, really you could write in the winning party from 2024 to 2052 basically with 100% confidence.

You can make the same argument polls don’t matter because they aren’t actually real like election results and donation numbers.

Also Demographic change does matter because in a state like GA, it gives Biden a bit of a cushion to perhaps like with black voters for instance. It doesn’t guarantee he’ll win the state but certainly helps him.