By what amount would Clinton have to win IA to make NH competitive?

[Crumpets]

I imagine if she wins very narrowly, much of the news spin will be about how close Sanders made what was originally seen as an uncompetitive race, and it will effectively be seen as a win for Sanders. On the other hand, if it's not even close, the spin will be all about how Sanders was built up to be more of a challenger than he ever really was, giving Clinton some momentum. What would be the cutoff point between "clear Clinton victory" and "can't shake the Bern"?

I think a 10-point win would be fairly convincing.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

More then 10. Anything within 5 for Clinton will not do it and if she loses she is really in trouble.

[Mike Thick]

I think that even a less-than comfortable win would give her some momentum, but it woulud take a landslide to really put it in play. Like, 10 points, and that's generous.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

I think that even a less-than comfortable win would give her some momentum, but it woulud take a landslide to really put it in play. Like, 10 points, and that's generous.

Wait... what? Have people already forgotten what happened in 2008? NH women will turn out in record-high numbers for Hillary. Sanders will be lucky to break 35% among women. NH is a "lean Clinton" state in the primary, regardless of what happens in IA. The women's vote in NH is as elastic as the Black vote in MS.

That was in 2008...there have been polls showing Bernie getting well over 35% among women. I suggest you start reading polls.

[Mike Thick]

I think that even a less-than comfortable win would give her some momentum, but it woulud take a landslide to really put it in play. Like, 10 points, and that's generous.

Wait... what? Have people already forgotten what happened in 2008? NH women will turn out in record-high numbers for Hillary. Sanders will be lucky to break 35% among women. NH is a "lean Clinton" state in the primary, regardless of what happens in IA. The women's vote in NH is as elastic as the Black vote in MS.

That was in 2008...there have been polls showing Bernie getting well over 35% among women. I suggest you start reading polls.

I understand why you would think that, but I disagree. It's a different set of circumstances. This year, we have a two-way contest rather than a three-way between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Bernie also has a large base of support among young people that I think he will turn out, which could somewhat mitigate the gains among the elderly and women that led Clinton to victory that year.

[Crumpets]

I think that even a less-than comfortable win would give her some momentum, but it woulud take a landslide to really put it in play. Like, 10 points, and that's generous.

Wait... what? Have people already forgotten what happened in 2008? NH women will turn out in record-high numbers for Hillary. Sanders will be lucky to break 35% among women. NH is a "lean Clinton" state in the primary, regardless of what happens in IA. The women's vote in NH is as elastic as the Black vote in MS.

That was in 2008...there have been polls showing Bernie getting well over 35% among women. I suggest you start reading polls.

I understand why you would think that, but I disagree. It's a different set of circumstances. This year, we have a two-way contest rather than a three-way between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Bernie also has a large base of support among young people that I think he will turn out, which could somewhat mitigate the gains among the elderly and women that led Clinton to victory that year.

How is that different from Obama? We saw how well young people helped him in '08.

[Mike Thick]

I think that even a less-than comfortable win would give her some momentum, but it woulud take a landslide to really put it in play. Like, 10 points, and that's generous.

Wait... what? Have people already forgotten what happened in 2008? NH women will turn out in record-high numbers for Hillary. Sanders will be lucky to break 35% among women. NH is a "lean Clinton" state in the primary, regardless of what happens in IA. The women's vote in NH is as elastic as the Black vote in MS.

That was in 2008...there have been polls showing Bernie getting well over 35% among women. I suggest you start reading polls.

I understand why you would think that, but I disagree. It's a different set of circumstances. This year, we have a two-way contest rather than a three-way between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Bernie also has a large base of support among young people that I think he will turn out, which could somewhat mitigate the gains among the elderly and women that led Clinton to victory that year.

How is that different from Obama? We saw how well young people helped him in '08.

I suppose. However, my point is that just because someone defied the polls one time eight years prior doesn't mean they will do it again.

[Holmes]

What happens in Iowa won't make a difference. People in New Hampshire make up their own minds.

[Crumpets]

What happens in Iowa won't make a difference. People in New Hampshire make up their own minds.

I suspect TNvolunteer will beg to differ.

[Holmes]

What happens in Iowa won't make a difference. People in New Hampshire make up their own minds.

I suspect TNvolunteer will beg to differ.

No, what I said is in line with what he says. Women in New Hampshire are a strong Democratic constituency.

[Ogre Mage]

I don't think it matters.  New Hampshireites are independent thinkers who make up their own minds.  We can see from the 2008 Democratic and Republican Primaries that they don't put much stock in what Iowa does.

[IceSpear]

NH very much enjoys being contrarian. It's possible Hillary would actually have a better shot there if she lost IA.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

I would agree with 10 points.  It's not going to happen in all likelihood.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope by NH, she sweeps the first two Primaries. She needs all the time she can get to get ready for GE. She's gonna win Iowa by 7 and hopefully NH by 3.

[defe07]

I think both states could flip for either Hillary or Bernie. I don't think the states will split.

[Shadows]

Irrelevant.

Sanders is getting a comfortable victory in NH