Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Why not start this thread early? After all, the Rudd Government now, after much speculation has a double dissolution trigger due its failure to pass the ETS in the Senate, the result of a surprisingly united Liberal Party in the Senate, who would have expected Abbott to have pulled that off?

Nonetheless, the Rudd Government intends to serve out a full term according to latest reports, yet Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard has stated that if the ETS does fail next February the Government will review all options, thus contributing to rumours of a March 6 election sparked by senior Liberal Christopher Pyne. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if an election is held before August or October (thank you Antony Green's Electoral Blog!) due to the writs' termination. Not to mention, Rudd, like Keating to Hewson would want to do Abbott slowly, although he wouldn't say it with the same 'gusto'. Moreover, it shall be an interesting period in Australian politics.

[Хahar 🤔]

ETS? I appear to have missed something.

Double dissolution would be tons of fun, of course.

[Јas]

ETS?

Emissions Trading System

[You kip if you want to...]

ETS?

Emissions Trading System

Is it basically an Aussie Cap-n-Trade?

[Smid]

Yeah, Antony Green, as always, is a week or more ahead of any other journalist (while they're discussing the leadership challenge, he's discussing Rudd's election date options and it typically takes them a week to catch up to what he's been saying - note that his comments on a Wentworth by-election came about three days before Turnbull got rolled as leader).

I got an email the other day, which I considered posting. It came from one of the Crikey commentators and discussed the betting market on possible election dates:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hash]

Also, Bradfield and Higgins by-elections this Sunday. While the Liberals will win both, it will be interesting to see how the Greenies do and if there's a swing to them overall. A swing from the Liberals would be easily spun by Labor and Greens as a 'mandate' of sorts for ETS, me thinks.

[Smid]

Also, Bradfield and Higgins by-elections this SundaySaturday. While the Liberals will win both, it will be interesting to see how the Greenies do and if there's a swing to them overall. A swing from the Liberals would be easily spun by Labor and Greens as a 'mandate' of sorts for ETS, me thinks.

I hope the Liberals win both, by-elections are always a chance for people to lodge a protest vote and almost always see a swing against the party that previously held the seat.

I live in Higgins and will be helping out on the day.

[Smid]

The first polls are finding that people aren't as spooked by Tony Abbott as some might have first expected. This comes on the back of a Morgan poll yesterday, showing that the Coalition was ahead of Labor on first preference votes for the first time in about three years (Morgan is historically inaccurate, as they only conduct face to face polling instead of phone polling, which tends to under-estimate the conservative vote by not interviewing as many people in rural areas).

Additionally, a Galaxy poll:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/woman-not-as-fearful-of-tony-abbott-as-labor-would-like-to-believe-galaxy-poll-finds/story-e6frf7jo-1225807125057

And here's an opinion piece: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/abbotts-grenade-ignites-debate/story-e6frg74x-1225807116394

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/abbott-reveals-knockout-strategy/story-e6frg6n6-1225807144692

[Smid]

I have suspected for most of this year that the election will be called for July or August of this year, because I think the budget will be inflationary and I think the Government is going to want to go after the sweeteners kick in during the new financial year, but before the Reserve Bank raises rates in the months following.

Constitutionally, I have just heard that the earliest date an election can be called without being a Double Dissolution is August 7. I don't think he's going to want to call a Double Dissolution because it will reduce the quota to be elected into the Senate, allowing minor parties to win more seats.

I have just been told about a piece that's gone out on the newswire (I'll post it here once I have the text in front of me) that states that valedictory speeches for Members not contesting the election will be held before Parliament rises for the Winter Recess on 24 June. After the Recess, Parliament will resume on 23 August. If speeches are to be given before the Spring Recess, it is probable that the election will be called before the end of the Winter Recess.

With the football finals running throughout September, I believe it is likely the election will be called for the final few weeks of August.

[Smid]

News Story in The Australian

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/dates-offer-spring-election-hint/story-fn3dxity-1225865038361

The other story on the AAP says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Platypus]

New poll out; in short everyone hates Kevin. 6% lead on TPP for the Coalition.

Rudd's line is "sure, you hate me, but Tony Abbott is worse". This is likely to be highly effective, as it is probably the most truthful thing he has said since 2008.

[Smid]

New poll out; in short everyone hates Kevin. 6% lead on TPP for the Coalition.

Rudd's line is "sure, you hate me, but Tony Abbott is worse". This is likely to be highly effective, as it is probably the most truthful thing he has said since 2008.

Since 2008? I think we can go back further than that!

[Platypus]

New poll out; in short everyone hates Kevin. 6% lead on TPP for the Coalition.

Rudd's line is "sure, you hate me, but Tony Abbott is worse". This is likely to be highly effective, as it is probably the most truthful thing he has said since 2008.

Since 2008? I think we can go back further than that!

I think February 13 2008 is probably the right day to go back to

[Хahar 🤔]

Why is Rudd unpopular? He's completely fake. The electorate ought to eat that up.

[Platypus]

Why is Rudd unpopular? He's completely fake. The electorate ought to eat that up.

It did, until his government actually had to start implementing policies. Damn Westminster system!

[Smid]

Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner announces he won't contest his inner-city seat at the next election. There's a very good chance it will fall to the Greens, although this will require the Liberal vote to be below the Greens vote (it was last election) and for Liberal voters to preference the Greens (many of them did at the last election). Obviously if the Liberal vote lifts much at all (not impossible, given it was so low last election, but still... the rise in the Greens in the polls suggests that it is unlikely), the seat will become safe Labor. Actually, I spoke to a Labor party staffer a few months back who said that if she lived in the seat, she'd probably vote Liberal because it's the best chance Labor has of holding on there.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/tanner-to-bow-out-of-politics/story-e6frgczf-1225883865184

[Harry Hayfield]

Am I correct in the following assumptions?

• Australia uses a system of Alternative Vote to elect MP's
• The next election will be fought on new boundaries (i.e not the seats contested in 2007)
• The main parties are: Labour, Liberals, Greens
• Voting in Australia is compulsory

[You kip if you want to...]

Am I correct in the following assumptions?

• Australia uses a system of Alternative Vote to elect MP's
• The next election will be fought on new boundaries (i.e not the seats contested in 2007)

• The main parties are: Labour, Liberals, Greens

[/b]

• Voting in Australia is compulsory

There's the Nationals too, right?

[KuntaKinte]

There's the Nationals too, right?

Yeah, and they are permanently allied to the Liberals since... ever.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Nationals should be considered a faction of the Liberal Party.

[Smid]

Am I correct in the following assumptions?

• Australia uses a system of Alternative Vote to elect MP's
• The next election will be fought on new boundaries (i.e not the seats contested in 2007)
• The main parties are: Labour, Liberals, Greens
• Voting in Australia is compulsory

On point 1. Yes, we use IRV (preferential voting) to elect our MPs. This is like in Atlasia, where you fill out all your preferences. Unlike Atlasia, there is no room for write-ins, and you must allocate a preference to every candidate. The Senate is elected using STV (proportional representation). For the Senate, you can either vote above-the-line, placing a "1" in the box of a single party (which means you wish to follow the registered preferences of that party) or you can vote below-the-line, numberine your preferences for every candidate contesting the Senate in your state. Most people vote above-the-line, which actually makes it more like Party List PR, but the fact that there is an ability to number certain candidates of a party ahead of other candidates of that party, contrary to the party's decision means that technically it is STV-PR. The House of Representatives is divided into single member electorates based on population, however the Senate, like the US Senate, is the States' House, with each state having equal representation (12 Senators). In a normal General Election, one half of each state's Senators are up for re-election, however if a Double Dissolution is called (only when there is legislation important to the Government's agenda that has been blocked by the Senate on several occasions), all Senators are up for re-election, and at the next GE, the six final Senators elected are the six who are up for re-election.

2. Due to the Federal nature of Australia, our redistributions are a little different from those in the UK. After each federal election, the Electoral Commission looks at the percentage of the population enrolled to vote in each state (our boundaries are based on enrolled voters, rather than population living in the electorate). They then compare the proportion of the enrolled population each state has with the representation that state receives in the Parliament (the way they do it is by dividing the total enrolled population nation-wide by 150, the number of seats, to work out the quota of voters in each electorate, and then dividing the state population by the quota to determine that state's eligibility to MPs). As a result, in pretty much every election for the past, I don't know, two decades, there has probably been at least one state which has gained an additional electorate, at the expense of another state which has lost an electorate. That means that following most elections, there is a redistribution in at least two states. In the life of this Parliament, Queensland gained a seat at the expense of New South Wales, which lost one, triggering redistributions in both states since the last election. This was also the case prior to the last election. There are other triggers for a redistribution, too. Western Australia neither gained nor lost seats subsequent to the last election, but was still subject to a redistribution because more than one-third of the electorates had a deviation of more than 10% for two consecutive months. Victoria currently is in the redistribution process (which will no doubt re-start following the election) because it has not had a redistribution in more than seven years. In short, this election will be fought on new boundaries in Queensland, NSW, WA and possibly Tasmania (I think their redistribution was prior to the last election, but I could be wrong), but fought on old boundaries in the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and Victoria.

3. The main parties, as has been stated, are the Liberals, Labor, Nationals and Greens. The Liberals and the Nationals have been in Coalition for, well, longer than I can remember, and apart from a few bumps in the road, pretty much continuously since the 1920s (well, back then, it was the Liberal Party's predecessor, the UAP, but you get the picture). The Liberals and Nationals don't run candidates against incumbent MPs of the other party. They do, however, contest open seats against each other, although the Nationals rarely contest in urban areas (Qld being the exception, where the Nats have run in the seat of Brisbane and the seat of Ryan in recent years, by which I mean the past decade). The Liberals and the Nationals have merged into a single party in Queensland.

4. Contrary to popular opinion, voting in Australia is not compulsory, but this is only due to the fact that we have a secret ballot. Attendence at a polling place is compulsory, and you can be fined if you don't turn up. I think the fine is in the order of about $70 - probably less than 35 British Pounds, although I can't be bothered looking up the exchange rate. Since no one can see how you vote, there is no way to prevent someone deliberately voting informally, which is why I say that voting is not compulsory. Indeed, I was scrutineering back in the 2001 election and I saw someone who had written "Conscientious Objector" across their ballot paper and not numbered any square. I think this was the most intelligent informal ballot I've ever seen... I've seen plenty of "Get F***ed, they're all the same anyway" but not many people voting informally have the intelligence/education to know what a conscientious objector is, let alone classify themselves as one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, new boundaries in Tasmania. They used new ones in the state election, anyways.

[Smid]

Yeah, new boundaries in Tasmania. They used new ones in the state election, anyways.

Just looked it up and Tasmania was redistributed in 2008, so yes, new boundaries there (since the Tasmanian Government interestingly uses federal boundaries for state parliament, it was theoretically possible that the state election was fought on new boundaries, whereas the federal election would be fought on old boundaries, if the redistribution was completed prior to the last federal election, but subsequent to the last state election). While looking it up, I found out that the Northern Territory also has new electoral boundaries, so only South Australia, Victoria and the ACT will be using old boundaries at this election.

http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/index.htm - lists recent redistributions
http://www.aec.gov.au/FAQs/Redistributions.htm - redistribution FAQs.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Shane, we already have a thread on this. We ought to merge them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Magic!