Here is my guess for what would ultimately happen. Explanation below.
Colorado continues trending Democratic.
Florida is very close, but Obama successfully ties Romney to the Ryan Plan, keeping enough Republican-voting seniors at home to hold onto the state.
Georgia is closer than people might have expected; the Atlanta suburbs are trending away from the Republican party, though they manage to win by a decent margin.
Indiana swings back to the Republican column, but only narrowly.
Nevada is a lot closer due to dismal state of the housing market and a more motivated Republican base due to the Mormon presence. However, Obama's tight hold on the Hispanic vote delivers this state easily.
New Hampshire is somewhat closer than in 2008, but the Romney "home-state" effect is negligible.
North Carolina swings back to the Republican column, though Obama doesn't let it slip away easily; it's a close one.
Ohio stays in the Obama camp, Portman doing nothing for Romney.
