As somebody who lives in Arlington County, it is extremely unlikely he will win Virginia. Remember, in the GOP Primary in Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria, Trump came in 2nd or 3rd place. He is uniquely positioned to have the worst showing for a major party nominee in Northern Virginia since Dukakis in '88.
He turns off...
Latinos (Arlington and Prince William County is 15 and 20 percent Hispanic, respectively)
College Educated Whites (Northern Virginia is the most educated place in the country)
Asians (Fairfax and Loudoun counties have large Vietnamese, Korean, and Indian populations
Millennials (Arlington County is 27% between the ages of 25-34)
Black People (Decent sized African American through whole region)
He will lose bigly. And although Northern Virginia is certainly not the whole part of Virginia, it is growing and will continue to grow. That is why even if Trump manages to drive up turnout in the formerly Democratic (now shifted hard right) parts of Southwest Virginia, it will still do effectively nothing to counter the huge margin Hillary racks up in those counties near DC. Clinton/Kaine will win Virginia.
P.S.
1. Trump literally pulled out of the state.
2. Trump won't just crater in the DC suburbs, he will be the first Republican since 1964 to lose Chesterfield county (Richmond suburb) and do similarly abysmal in the rest of the Richmond area.
does this make u feel better sleeping at night saying this? we don't need virginia to win
True.
But without VA, Trump's already narrow path to 270 becomes nearly impossible.
