Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

It does seem that the center-left did pick up Verona from the center-right

[jaichind]

It does seem that the center-left did pick up Verona from the center-right

centre-left didn't reach second round in Verona.

FI-Lega-FdI candidate wins over Tosi's wife/girlfriend (Tosi is the former Verona Lega Nord mayor)

Oh.  I misread the results.  My fault. BTW, it seems that M5S did not do that well in the first round.  Is M5S weaker in these cities or are M5S just weaker in these local races and stronger in national races.

[jaichind]

Does not these results show that M5S will tactically vote for Berlusconi bloc if confronted with Berlusconi bloc vs the Center-Left ?

[jaichind]

Result of Abruzzo is very impressive.  The Center-Right bloc overcame a 47.1 to 35.8 first round lead to win in the second round. 

[jaichind]

Does this election success mean that Berlusconi might pull together a center-right alliance that can rival M5S and the Renzi bloc ?  It seems FI-LN is not a problem, it seem harder to rope in Fdl and AP.  Did either FdL or AP join up with Berlusconi in this past local election ?

And what about MDP? Did they go along with PD in this election ?

[jaichind]

The right will patch up ties and run together. They always do.

The left will splinter in a thousand pieces. They always do.

What about 1996?  If FI-AN continued their alliance with LN they would have won just like in 1994 but they did not and lost.

[jaichind]

So FI and LN will be in an alliance right?  What about Fdl and AP?  Will they join up?  I assume Fdl is more likely than AP given how NCD broke up.  A FI-LN-Fdl-AP alliance will be quite competitive with PD and MS5. 

[jaichind]

With 32% of votes counted RAI projection are

38%  Center-Right
36%  M5S
18%  Center-Left
7%    Left

[jaichind]

Looks like polling trends after the Sicily election has been a shift away from PD.  It seems if FI-LN-FdI alliance can hold it is in a good position come out first place.   

[jaichind]

Latest IXE poll

PD    23.8%
M5S  27.9%
FI     15.5%
LN    13.5%
FYI     4.8%

Which puts FI-LN-FdI at 33.8%

PD has dropped 3% since late October.

[jaichind]

IXE poll has seat projections

                           Lower House       Senate
Berlusconi bloc         270                   135
M5S                        165                     85
Center-Left              162                     81
Radical Left                25                      8

LN wants Berlusconi  to rule out a post-election alliance with the Center-Left bloc which if true means no majority for any bloc or alliances of blocs.

[jaichind]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/28/berlusconi-woes-voters-tax-breaks-pet-owners-basic-income-italians/

Berlusconi woos voters with tax breaks for pet owners and a basic income for all Italians

What is funny is that it is Berlusconi (and also M5S) that are coming out with "free free free !!"  type schemes and it is the PD that is asking "how to pay for all this", reversing the traditional "Right-Left" paradigm. 

[jaichind]

Centre-right coalition formalized

Is Ncl going to be part of the Center-right coalition since I do not seem them represented in this picture ?

[jaichind]

NCD doesn't exist anymore.
Alfano won't run, a part went to the center-right coalition in the centrist "Quarto Polo", while others (such as Lorenzin) will be part of the center-left coalition in the "Civica Popolare" list.

I was not talking about NCD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Centre-Right

Instead I was referring to Ncl
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_with_Italy

My understanding was that Ncl will be part of the FI LN Fdl alliance.  Not sure if that took place ?

[jaichind]

It's gone from a 1:1 to a 2:1 proportional to FPTP split.
Also, voters won't have separate ballots for proportional and FPTP voting, and also won't be able to split their vote between the FPTP candidate and the party for the "proportional part".

Why did the Constitutional Court rule the concept of bonus seats to be unconstitutional? 

[jaichind]

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

[jaichind]

IPSOS poll



Center-Right at 283 seats, M5S 152, Center-Left 158, LeU 24 in the Lower House.  FE looks like will cross 3% according to this poll. 

Interesting that M5S scandals did not seem to hurt it that much. 

[jaichind]

It seems to get around the ban on publishing polls in the two weeks before March 4 

http://rightnation.it/

have begun writing up the results of fictitious “underground” races as a means of conveying the performance of various political parties and coalitions.

And

http://www.youtrend.it/voci-dal-conclave/

is known for publishing supposed polls with references to papal conclaves and names of imaginary cardinals to indicate the different candidates.

[jaichind]

What times does the polls close and are there links to live results ?

[jaichind]

What times does the polls close and are there links to live results ?

They close at 11 p.m. local time (5 p.m. EST). Not sure about live results.

I remember back in 2013 the results started to come out the morning of the day after the election. Not sure if they will do the same this time.

[jaichind]

I remember back in 2013 the results started to come out the morning of the day after the election. Not sure if they will do the same this time.

Erm, no. Results are always given live on the page that FrancoAgo posted right before me.
This year, it will be more complicated due to the new electoral law, with the FPTP/proportional split. For instance, ballots in which the voter marks only the name of the coalition's candidate for the FPTP part, and not that of any party, will then be allocated proportionally across the parties that make up that coalition; but this is done only once all sections from a FPTP seat are counted and reported to the Ministry.
I read an article a couple of days ago on Il Foglio in which the author explained that the biggest parties in the coalitions (PD, FI) might be thus underestimated a bit (up to 1/2%) in the initial reports with respect to parties with no coalition (M5S, LeU).

Anyhow, semi-final results are expected around 2 AM for the Senate, and around 5 AM for the House of Deputies. Then, on Monday afternoon, ballots will be counted for the two regional elections in Lazio and Lombardia.

If you look at the 2013  uselectionatlas results thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169906.0

Results/exit polls came out at around 2/25/2013 9am NY time which is 3PM Rome time.  Was it because voting in 2013 was over 2 days and voting the second day ends 3PM ?

[jaichind]

Why Investors May Want to Hold Their Horses on Italian Exit Polls

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-02/hold-your-horses-on-italian-exit-polls-if-history-is-any-guide

[jaichind]

Does anyone have info on how the center-right and center-left alliances are distributing the 232 deputies and 116 senate FPTP seats?  I assume M5S will have a candidate in every FPTP seat and both center-right and center-left alliances have perfect alliances (no seat where more than one candidate from the alliance is contesting)?

The way I figure it, as LN is allocated enough seats to run and both LN and M5S does well enough in the FPTP seats I can see a M5S-LN-FdI majority if PD under-performs.

[jaichind]

If the center right coalition wins a majority and LN wins more seats than FI, does Salvini become PM? Or does Bersculoni still get to pick a puppet?

I think LN and FI already made a deal that the larger of the two parties gets to pick the Center-Right bloc candidate for PM.

[jaichind]

A topless Femen activist has disrupted polling in Italy's national election while ex-Premier Silvio Berlusconi was casting his ballot.

The woman, who had the words "Berlusconi, you've expired" written in black marker on her topless torso, jumped onto the table at the Milan polling station as Berlusconi was voting.

Photographers in the room to shoot the scene jostled for position amid the chaos. Berlusconi was escorted out.

News reports recalled that Femen activists disrupted Berlus