Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Following is a table showing the turnout for Italian lower chamber general political elections. Turnout at 19:00 is calculated on the basis of the voters in 7,062 of 7,958 municipalities.

Region   12:00   19:00
Italy   19.4%   58.5%
 Abruzzo   19.4%   61.4%
  Basilicata   16.3%   53.1%
  Calabria   15.1%   49.5%
  Campania   17.0%   52.4%
  Emilia-Romagna   22.7%   66.2%
  Friuli-Venezia Giulia   22.6%   63.2%
  Latium   18.9%   55.5%
  Liguria   21.8%   61.3%
  Lombardy   20.9%   63.3%
  Marches   19.8%   62.6%
  Molise   17.9%   57.1%
  Piedmont   20.4%   62.0%
  Apulia   18.0%   53.7%
  Sardinia   18.3%   52.4%
  Sicily   14.3%   46.8%
  Tuscany   21.2%   63.7%
  Trentino-Alto Adige   20.9%   60.4%
  Umbria   20.6%   64.8%
  Valle d’Aosta   21.2%   59.0%
  Veneto   22.2%   64.5%

[jaichind]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

I recall back in 2013 exit polls were way off.  Of course they were off in a way that underestimated PdL.

[jaichind]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

Like, greater than 40% wave?

I think M5S + LN were polling above 40% in most pre-election polls.  If M5S went up during the blackout period and there is a "wave" for M5S and LN in exit polls I have to assume the sum of M5S and LN has to be above 45%.

[jaichind]

Sorry if this question got answered already: How are PR seats allocated.  Is there one all Italy list or are there separate lists per region? 

This makes a difference for parties like LN where their PR vote will be very concentrated.  Under the former system LN can benefit from the very little votes it gets outside the North (but they will add up) and under the later system they are all wasted votes.  Also under the later system the small parties will tend to lose out since the threshold to get seats will be higher.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Looks like five star around 30

[jaichind]

Both LN and FI around 14 to 15

[jaichind]

M5S and Lega overperformance.

For sure M5S.  I think LN mostly in line with pre election polls

[jaichind]

Five Star Gets 28.8-30.8% in Italy Lower House: La7 Poll
Five Star Gets 29-32% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll
Democratic Party at 20.5-23.5% in Italy Senate: Exit Poll
Forza Italia at 13-16% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll
League Gets 13-16% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll

Five Star at 29.5-32.5% in Italy Lower House: RAI Exit Poll
Democratic Party at 20-23% in Italy Lower House: Exit Poll
Forza Italia at 12.5-15.5% in Italy Lower House: Exit Poll
League Gets 12.5-15.5% in Italy Lower House: RAI Exit Poll

[jaichind]

Looks like PD has avoided the worst case scenerio if exit polls right. 

[jaichind]

Looks like the numbers are not there for a FI PD government.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi Bloc Gets 33.5-36.5% in Italy Senate: RAI Exit Poll
Center-Left Bloc Gets 25-28% in Italy Senate: Exit Poll
Berlusconi Bloc at 33-36% in Italy Lower House: RAI Poll
Center-Left Bloc at 24.5-27.5% in Italy Lower House: RAI Poll

[jaichind]

Mediaset:
M5S   31% (+-2)
FI      14% (+-2)
Lega 14% (+-2)
FdI      5% (+-1)
NcI      1.5% (+-1)
PD     19.5% (+-2)
+E       3.0% (+-1)
CiPo    0.7% (+-0.3%)
Insieme 0.8% (+-0.3%)
LeU     4% (+-1)

Problem with this poll is sum of medium vote shares is around 94%.   Not sure others will get up to 6%

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Italian Senate Seats: RAI Exit Polls
Coalition/List   From   To
Center-Right   112   152
Five Star Movement   75   115
Center-Left   57   97
Free and Equal   2   6
Other   0   2

[jaichind]

YouTrend senate
CENTROSINISTRA: 74 seats
CENTRODESTRA: 123 seats
M5S: 102 seats
LEU: 10 seats

Lower House
PD: 114
Other CSX: 24
(TOT CSX: 138 seats)
FI: 104
ALLOY: 107
FDI: 38
NCI: 8
(TOT CDX: 257 seats)
M5S: 204 seats
LEU: 19 seats


If true then it is what I expected: M5S-LN-FDI majority ...

[jaichind]

EUR dropping now on trends that M5S and LN might be over-performing exit polls ...

[jaichind]

For anyone who knows: do PaP and/or CasaPound have a chance of making it into Parliament?

No.

What is the PR threshold for seats

[jaichind]

One bright spot could be that this may be the end of Silvio, if he had really managed to fall so far below the League.

Too bad.  I was looking forward to Bunga Bunga II.

[jaichind]

YouTrend:
According to the average projections, 5 Star Movement and the League together reach about 49% of vote share. Plus the other far right party (Brothers of Italy – FDI) they reach well ver 50%

[jaichind]

So like how do we find the results because I have no clue on how to navigate the election website.

Same here.  I can only get to turnout figures but not real results.

I am referring to http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20180304/votantiCI

[jaichind]

RAI Projection Senate based on 16% sample

Center-Right   36.0%
Five Star Movement   32.2%
Center-Left   23.4%
Free and Equal   3.5%
Others   4.9%

[jaichind]

Looking at some random results it seems that LN is actually getting 6%-7% of the vote in the South.  This is very impressive.

[jaichind]

So like how do we find the results because I have no clue on how to navigate the election website.

Same here.  I can only get to turnout figures but not real results.

I am referring to http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20180304/votantiCI

Thx.  I figured it out about 10 min ago ..
Not sure if you still need help, but in case you need here's an image that might help.