Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

Center-right parties including former Italian Premier Berlusconi’s PDL lead over center-left parties including Premier Letta’s PD narrows to 1.7 pp versus 2.5 pps last week, according to poll by SWG gauging voting intentions.

Center-right bloc at 34.8% vs 35.4% last week
Center-left bloc at 33.1% vs 32.9% last week
Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 21.2% vs 20% last week

It is interesting that this list crisis has halted Grillo's decline and now he is moving up in the polls. 

[jaichind]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

[jaichind]

I think No wins by 4%. 

Any links to results ?

[jaichind]

Italian Constitutional Referendum Turnout at 12:00 (Table)
By Giovanni Salzano
(Bloomberg) -- Following is a table showing the turnout
for Italy’s costitutional referendum. This is the third
constitutional referendum held in Italy since World War II.
===============================================================================
Region                                     12:00          19:00          23:00
===============================================================================
Italy                                      20.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Piedmont                                 21.6%
  Valle d’Aosta                            22.3%
  Lombardy                                 23.9%
  Trentino-Alto Adige                      21.6%
  Veneto                                   24.0%
  Friuli-Venezia Giulia                    24.4%
  Liguria                                  23.7%
  Emilia-Romagna                           26.0%
  Tuscany                                  22.2%
  Umbria                                   19.7%
===============================================================================
Region                                     12:00          19:00          23:00
===============================================================================
  Marches                                  20.2%
  Latium                                   19.5%
  Abruzzo                                  18.3%
  Molise                                   16.7%
  Campania                                 15.1%
  Apulia                                   16.4%
  Basilicata                               14.5%
  Calabria                                 13.0%
  Sicily                                   13.5%
  Sardinia                                 18.8%
===============================================================================
Note: Turnout refers to voters in Italy only.

Source: Interior Ministry

[jaichind]

It seems voting will continue until 11PM Rome time.  Wow.  I guess that means we will not see exit polls until 5PM EST.   

[jaichind]

Turnout at 7pm is 57.2%

[jaichind]

EMG poll

'No’ seen in 55%-59% range
‘Yes’ seen in 41%-45% range

[jaichind]

Looks like it is all over for Renzi.  He scheduled a press conference for midnight knowing what the result will be.  It seems likely he will resign tonight.

[jaichind]

EUR dropped around 0.7% on exit polls and still falling

[jaichind]

Brexit, Trump, Renzi gone.  What a 2016 Hat-trick. 

[jaichind]

Total turnout was 67.77%

[jaichind]

LN's Salvini says that Renzi must resign if the result is "No"

[jaichind]

Total turnout was 67.77%

Interior ministry adjusted turnout to 69.3%

[jaichind]

FI also came out asking Renzi to resign if exit polls are correct.  No word from M5S who would benefit the most from a snap election.

[jaichind]

It seems RAI is taking into account of the vote that is coming in and adjusting its projection.  Just like NY Times site on US election night.

[jaichind]

Renzi has to resign even if he gets pressure "for the good of the country" if he is going to get blown out by 18-20 points.

[jaichind]

EUR now down around 1%

[jaichind]

It is around 60-40 for No with a bit more than 2% of the sections coming in with results.

[jaichind]

Brexit, Trump, Renzi gone.  What a 2016 Hat-trick.

One of these things is not like the others, being that governments falling in Italy is like the national sport and all.

Yeah, but M5S coming to power which is the most likely scenario after a snap election is not the typical Italian government.

[jaichind]

LA7/EMG  projection is for No to win with 59.2% of the vote.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg wire: "Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to meet President Sergio Mattarella early Monday"

Most likely to reign.

[jaichind]

Latest RAI projection.  No at 58-60.

[jaichind]

Wow.  I thought Renzi saying at the last minute he would resign if No won would have pushed the Yes vote up.  I guess not.

[jaichind]

t is around 59-41 for No with a bit less than 10% of the sections coming in with results.

[jaichind]

RAI: Renzi's statement to country at Midnight delayed by 20 minutes.