Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the subject of naming ridings after people, 'Mordecai-Richler' would make a great constituency name...

[DL]

Does Cotler have an issue with more working class areas being added?

While you're right that the changes are small, John-Peters-Humphrey is a bit less working-class and probably a bit more winnable for the Conservatives than the old Mount Royal. It loses the main section of Cote-des-Neiges, a low-income area with many English-speaking (Black Caribbean and South Asian) immigrants that stayed very Liberal in 2011, while gaining some generic suburbia by the airport that voted NDP and a few pretty well-off polls in that sort of transition zone between NDG and Westmount where all three federalist parties are competitive.

Its considered a foregone conclusion that Cotler will retire in 2015...but I think that these new boundaries make the seat harder to win for the Tories not easier. The working class part of Cote des Neiges that is cut out is quite small compared to the big chunk of Lachine and Dorval that gets added...and these are all areas where Tory support was literally almost NIL last time.

[lilTommy]

Does Cotler have an issue with more working class areas being added?

While you're right that the changes are small, John-Peters-Humphrey is a bit less working-class and probably a bit more winnable for the Conservatives than the old Mount Royal. It loses the main section of Cote-des-Neiges, a low-income area with many English-speaking (Black Caribbean and South Asian) immigrants that stayed very Liberal in 2011, while gaining some generic suburbia by the airport that voted NDP and a few pretty well-off polls in that sort of transition zone between NDG and Westmount where all three federalist parties are competitive.

Your right,  so in essence this is a more affluent riding (ie Tory/Liberal fight) then the previous Mount Royal as its pretty safe to assume that Dorval/Lachine polls added are more middle-upper middle class then the Cote-des-Neige polls moved into Outremont. I wonder hos signifigant it is? since its only a small area from Victoria to Cote-des-neiges east-west and south to Cote-de-Sainte-Catherine. I would say this area will probably go NDP next time around.
I had no idea why Cote-Saint-Luc was so conservative... why is that? the jewish vote (they had a big high profile candidate too from this community) If Cotler steps down and the Liberals go with a CsL/Jewish candidate wouldn't that negate to some extent the Tory vote? Also the Tories are doing Terrible in the polls since the election in Quebec so might not even matter

[MaxQue]

Côte-Saint-Luc is very wealthy.

On another issue, I suppose I should email the commission next month to comment, being concerned by those changes as a Quebec elector.

[DL]

Its very hard to say what will happen in Mount Royal next time (whatever it ends up being called). I think that the Tories hit their absolute ceiling there last time with 36% and its hard to see them going much higher - apart from a handful of mostly elderly old Jewish ladies who might have wanted to vote for the Conservative but had some vestigial personal loyalty to Cotler - and most of those people will have died of natural causes by 2015.

Its not inconceivable that if the Liberal death rattle spiral continues and Cotler quits...what if the NDP nominates a high profile candidate and becomes the new default non-Tory, non-BQ strategic vote? What if post Cotler the Liberal vote in MR goes the way of the Liberal vote in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca once Keith martin quit? 

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

[lilTommy]

So wrong thread probably... but same tangent. NS just re-submitted its Provincial redistribution map

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/07/20/ns-electoral-boundaries-report.html

the gov't didn't accept the first one since it kept the special ridings intacts (acadian and african nova scotian ridings, 4 in total i think were allowed in that 25% variation)

http://nselectoralboundaries.ca/publications/Rev-Elect-Boundaries-EN.pdf

thought i'd share too... some of the maps looks odd here too (esp Dartmouth East...)

[ottermax]

So wrong thread probably... but same tangent. NS just re-submitted its Provincial redistribution map

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/07/20/ns-electoral-boundaries-report.html

the gov't didn't accept the first one since it kept the special ridings intacts (acadian and african nova scotian ridings, 4 in total i think were allowed in that 25% variation)

http://nselectoralboundaries.ca/publications/Rev-Elect-Boundaries-EN.pdf

thought i'd share too... some of the maps looks odd here too (esp Dartmouth East...)

Which ridings are currently protected special ridings? I didn't realize that there were enough African Nova Scotians to qualify for any (although I'm aware of their long history).

[Hatman 🍁]

Preston is the African Nova Scotian riding. The people there still have a bit of a southern drawl. They vote Liberal provincially (for some reason) and NDP federally (but that could be a vote for their MP, Peter Stoffer). Problem with that riding is, their MLA is White, so it defeats the purpose.

[MaxQue]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

The reason why Abitibi-Témiscamningue didn't lose population is Rouyn-Noranda, which is growing in population (but less than Vallée-de-l'Or). Still under average provincial growth, through.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Its very hard to say what will happen in Mount Royal next time (whatever it ends up being called). I think that the Tories hit their absolute ceiling there last time with 36% ...

No. The Sephardic and Orthodox populations are growing rapidly here due to immigration and large families; this is one of the reasons for the recent increased Conservative strength.

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

The reason why Abitibi-Témiscamningue didn't lose population is Rouyn-Noranda, which is growing in population (but less than Vallée-de-l'Or). Still under average provincial growth, through.

What's up with that? One wouldn't expect the area to be growing. I think Nord du Quebec is growing because of the Native baby boom.

[DL]

Its very hard to say what will happen in Mount Royal next time (whatever it ends up being called). I think that the Tories hit their absolute ceiling there last time with 36% ...

No. The Sephardic and Orthodox populations are growing rapidly here due to immigration and large families; this is one of the reasons for the recent increased Conservative strength.

Thing is according to the latest statscan data, Mount Royal is 30% Jewish and 70% everything else. Conservative support is literally almost zilch among the 70% and there is a sizeable chunk of the Jewish community that is very socially liberal and will never vote Conservative. It would take a real "perfect storm" for the Tories to win there. it almost happened last time but unlikely next time - especially as the riding is enlarged and all the new areas are francophone and lower-middle class

[MaxQue]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

The reason why Abitibi-Témiscamningue didn't lose population is Rouyn-Noranda, which is growing in population (but less than Vallée-de-l'Or). Still under average provincial growth, through.

What's up with that? One wouldn't expect the area to be growing. I think Nord du Quebec is growing because of the Native baby boom.

Because of the crisis, the prize of the metals rose, creating a mining boom here. The main factor blocking growth is the absence of housing. Inoccupancy rates are at or near 0%.

For Montreal, all Jews aren't Conservative. See the Orthodox ones in Outremont.

[DL]

There are also a lot of left-leaning Jews in Montreal who vote NDP or misguidedly Liberal...they tend not to live in god-awful places like Cote St. Luc though.

[MaxQue]

There are also a lot of left-leaning Jews in Montreal who vote NDP or misguidedly Liberal...they tend not to live in god-awful places like Cote St. Luc though.

Well, if you live there, you're quite wealthy.

[RogueBeaver]

Uhh, no, speaking as someone quite familiar with the area.

[MaxQue]

Uhh, no, speaking as someone quite familiar with the area.

Well, it's the impression the French Quebecers have and as all three commissionners are French...

[Poirot]

While some of Cotler's complaints might be political, like being afraid of losing part of Côte-des-Neiges would not be good for him / the Liberal party if the Conservative are a threat next election like the last one, I agree with him if it's about a Dorval area being added to John-Peters-Humphrey.

Looking at the map on the commission's website, the part of Lachine north of highway 20 looks to be commercial / industrial area. Not sure there are voters there. The Dorval area in Humphrey (west of airport, north of highway 20) is isolated and far from the rest of Humphrey riding. There are also three streets east of the airport and the Dorval circle.

It's on the border of Lac-Saint-Louis and split from the rest of Dorval. Difficult to find the logic. I imagine it's numbers ?  Lac-Saint-Louis has 96,000 people. Maybe adding the Dorval part left out would make it too big, but it doesn't look like a big area.

I would also have small boundary issue details. Someone mentioned earlier there is a street from Parc-Extension included in Humphrey. Why not stop at the town of Mount-Royal border. Also a tiny bit of south west Côte-Saint-Luc has been cut off near Westminster avenue and Montreal-west.  Côte-St-Luc road is the boundary between Côte-St-Luc and NDG / Montreal West. The old Mount Royal riding bounday went a small weird shape south. I think it is because it followed the Côte-Saint-Luc boundary. Why cut the appendage. It is cleaner to follow the road but I think it's a city limit and should be respected.

The borough and former city of Saint-Laurent is practically big enough to be a riding in itself. I understand not wanting to be cut. The St-Laurent in Langstaff is put with other Montreal territory along the river and part of a divided city, Dollard-des-Ormeaux east of Des Sources boulevard

George-Etienne Cartier riding perhaps could have Bordeaux in its name for the Ahunstic part in it. Or Acadie for the boulevard in the middle of it. Acadie is the name of the provincial riding with almost the same boundaries (it is smaller). Acadie could be confusing on the federal scene because of Acadie New Brunswick.

The Liberals should be happy about having one more riding in the western part of Montreal. It is their strongest area.

My vote for the what is the new riding on the island is George-Etienne-Cartier. It looks like a riding almost copied on a provincial one that is inserted there and causes touble to the east and west of it.  
          

[Wilfred Day]

I would name the Belleville riding "Quinte" or at least Hastings South.

A fine line, but I disagree. Both Quinte and Hastings South are terms of somewhat wider application, and would be taken to refer to larger areas than just Belleville and Quinte West. But then I am including Stirling-Rawdon, so my name is not perfect either. Still, my proposed riding of BELLEVILLE--QUINTE WEST is 70% urban -- in fact the two cities comprise 95% of it. So it needs a more urban-sounding name.

[DL]

There are also a lot of left-leaning Jews in Montreal who vote NDP or misguidedly Liberal...they tend not to live in god-awful places like Cote St. Luc though.

Well, if you live there, you're quite wealthy.

The big homes are in Hampstead...Cote St. luc is mostly tacky bungalows that were considered "state of the art" in the 60s and are now dated and shabby. There are also quite a few apartment buildings there. It's more or less the Montreal equivalent of very tacky middle class Jewish suburbia in Toronto that was built in the 60s like Bathurst and Lawrence. Sure it's wealthy compared to Ville d'Anjou... But among Anglo suburbs in Montreal Cote St. luc is wayyyy down the pecking order behind Westmount, Hampstead, Beaconsfield, Dollard, Pointe Claire....believe me saying you live in CSL is NOT a status symbol in Montreal.

[minionofmidas]

On the subject of naming ridings after people, 'Mordecai-Richler' would make a great constituency name...

...for whatever includes the former Ghetto nowadays.

[Poirot]

My analysis of Western Quebec

The Conservatives did hold the riding of Pontiac from 2006 to 2011 thanks to the heavily Anglo Pontiac MRC which will now be in this proposed riding. However, this new riding would be considerably less Anglo, as it leaves out the northern Gatineau exurbs which helped the Tories win the Pontiac riding.

An argument can be made that linguistic minorities should be in the same riding if possible to give them weight. Could it be an issue to have the anglophones from Pontiac in a less anglo riding.     

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Western Quebec

The Conservatives did hold the riding of Pontiac from 2006 to 2011 thanks to the heavily Anglo Pontiac MRC which will now be in this proposed riding. However, this new riding would be considerably less Anglo, as it leaves out the northern Gatineau exurbs which helped the Tories win the Pontiac riding.

An argument can be made that linguistic minorities should be in the same riding if possible to give them weight. Could it be an issue to have the anglophones from Pontiac in a less anglo riding.     

An issue that may be brought up by disgruntled locals. But, it's not like you can gerrymander a Tory riding there, as Pontiac County is too under populated.

[Wilfred Day]

My analysis of Western Quebec

The Conservatives did hold the riding of Pontiac from 2006 to 2011 thanks to the heavily Anglo Pontiac MRC which will now be in this proposed riding. However, this new riding would be considerably less Anglo, as it leaves out the northern Gatineau exurbs which helped the Tories win the Pontiac riding.

An argument can be made that linguistic minorities should be in the same riding if possible to give them weight. Could it be an issue to have the anglophones from Pontiac in a less anglo riding.

You could also argue that Papineau should be combined with adjacent francophone areas rather than be in a far-flung crescent surrounding Gatineau and Les Collines-de-l'Outaouais.

If you moved Papineau (22,541 residents) into a Outaouais-est alignment with about 56,000 Gatineau residents and L'Ange-Gardien, Notre-Dame-de-la-Salette, Val-des-Monts and Cantley (26,116), you could move the rest of Les Collines-de-l'Outaouais (Chelsea, Pontiac and La Pêche, 20,277) back into Hautes-Laurentides—Pontiac (97,826, 3.4% under quotient). Then the remaining Gatineau residents (about 209,349) would make two ridings each about 3.3% over quotient, much like the existing two ridings but shifted slightly west. Gatineau is still split between three ridings, but two of them are entirely within the city, rather than only one being entirely within the city.

Not a bad plan? One merit is that the new Outaouais-Est is clearly the "new" riding, while the other three follow the present three as closely as reasonably possible.