Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[DC Al Fine]

As discussed earlier in this thread, it is rather obvious that the Tories are trying to prevent Oshawa from ever going NDP. Not that it ever would under the proposed boundaries anyways.

Under the proposed boundaries in 2011 Oshawa would have gone Tory 50% and NDP 38%...and that was in a year where the Tories swept Ontario with 45% of the vote province-wide. Most polls have them down in the low to mid-30s in Ontario. I have to think that if CPC support in Ontario drops 10 points - an NDP win in Oshawa is possible - esp. if they stop running old-fashioned CAW firebrands in that riding and instead run someone who can appeal to the mainstream suburban population.

Maybe, but also remember that 2011 was the best year ever for the NDP, and they still lost it. They would need the Tories to come down significantly. Plus, Oshawa's demographics are changing as it becomes more of a cookie-cutter 905 suburb and less of a union town.

Another factor to remember is that NDP support is dropping along with the Tories (although not nearly as much). If the NDP support were holding steady while the Tories swung to the Liberals, I'd call Oshawa in play.

[DL]

As discussed earlier in this thread, it is rather obvious that the Tories are trying to prevent Oshawa from ever going NDP. Not that it ever would under the proposed boundaries anyways.

Under the proposed boundaries in 2011 Oshawa would have gone Tory 50% and NDP 38%...and that was in a year where the Tories swept Ontario with 45% of the vote province-wide. Most polls have them down in the low to mid-30s in Ontario. I have to think that if CPC support in Ontario drops 10 points - an NDP win in Oshawa is possible - esp. if they stop running old-fashioned CAW firebrands in that riding and instead run someone who can appeal to the mainstream suburban population.

Maybe, but also remember that 2011 was the best year ever for the NDP, and they still lost it. They would need the Tories to come down significantly. Plus, Oshawa's demographics are changing as it becomes more of a cookie-cutter 905 suburb and less of a union town.

But as we learned in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, the NDP can win "cookie-cutter 905 suburbs" at least the more downscale parts of that...I think the NDP will win Oshawa again when they approach it as part of a broader 905 strategy and not like they are waiting for the return of the prodigal son riding that elected Broadbent in the 80s.

[Wilfred Day]

As discussed earlier in this thread, it is rather obvious that the Tories are trying to prevent Oshawa from ever going NDP. Not that it ever would under the proposed boundaries anyways.

Then why are the Tories trying so hard to stuff it full of North Oshawa voters? I'd say they must be worried.

The transposed votes are misleading because they include a lot of Oshawa-Whitby where the NDP vote was lower because they had no chance against Flaherty. In a strong NDP campaign that area will be far more in play.

[Hatman 🍁]

As discussed earlier in this thread, it is rather obvious that the Tories are trying to prevent Oshawa from ever going NDP. Not that it ever would under the proposed boundaries anyways.

Under the proposed boundaries in 2011 Oshawa would have gone Tory 50% and NDP 38%...and that was in a year where the Tories swept Ontario with 45% of the vote province-wide. Most polls have them down in the low to mid-30s in Ontario. I have to think that if CPC support in Ontario drops 10 points - an NDP win in Oshawa is possible - esp. if they stop running old-fashioned CAW firebrands in that riding and instead run someone who can appeal to the mainstream suburban population.

Maybe, but also remember that 2011 was the best year ever for the NDP, and they still lost it. They would need the Tories to come down significantly. Plus, Oshawa's demographics are changing as it becomes more of a cookie-cutter 905 suburb and less of a union town.

But as we learned in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, the NDP can win "cookie-cutter 905 suburbs" at least the more downscale parts of that...I think the NDP will win Oshawa again when they approach it as part of a broader 905 strategy and not like they are waiting for the return of the prodigal son riding that elected Broadbent in the 80s.

Well, isn't Oshawa fairly White? While Bramale-Gore-Malton looks like a suburban wasteland, it has a huge non-white population which can be tapped into. South Asians are more willing to vote NDP than suburban whites.

[DL]

The other thing that could happen in Oshawa is that the Liberals will run a stronger campaign and in Oshawa when the Liberals are on the radar screen, they tend to run very "blue grit" type candidate who cut into the Tory vote more than the NDP.

[adma]

Remember, too, that what redistribution can't do in and of itself, incumbency can--that is, if in a split Oshawa, the NDP's facing Colin Carrie *and* Erin O'Toole in the respective seats, it makes the job so much more difficult.

Oh, and here's an observation: were Ontario like Saskatchewan, the Oshawa split seems like something Dick Proctor might have proposed in the 90s in the hopes of getting 2 NDP seats for the price of one--but, uh-oh, oopsie...

[Krago]

The City of Toronto is planning on taking five years and spending at least $750,000 to redraw its ward boundaries.  I could do it in a weekend!

http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/viewAgendaItemHistory.do?item=2013.EX32.2

[Hatman 🍁]

Why not just divide the new federal ridings in half? I guess with the one "half riding" they skipped the last redistribution, although I don't see why they couldn't make that half riding into a ward.

[lilTommy]

Like everything at Toronto city council, the Fordists want something that the majority of council doesn't. AND i'm sure he's super happy about spending that kinda money on something that could be done by this board

Fordists want fewer councillors; this redraw will probably keep or even increase the current composition (not by much, 1 or 2)... but council also just endorsed (i believe) looking into introducing ranked ballots for council and mayor.

Maybe y'all could draw something up and send it to councillors. The other big debate i hears was do you based wards on population# (like electoral ridings) or on voter# (like quebec's ridings). Population benefits the old suburbs (North York, Scarborough and Etobicoke) while voters would benefit the old city of Toronto and possibly East York.
I've never been a fan of basing it on voters... seems unfair to me, even though i'm a downtowner

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would be more fair if it were by # of voters if everyone could vote

Of course Ford wants to reduce the size of council. Seems to be a pet project for those on the right or even moderate heroes like Ottawa's current mayor. Luckily council shot down (in a rare instance of defiance) our mayor's proposal.

[Poirot]

The BC, Quebec and Saskatchewan Reports are out.

If the changes recommended by the House committee are adopted by the Quebec Commission, I think the ridings of Beauce, Mégantic L'érable, Lotbinière and Lévis-Bellechasse will be the same as the old ridings (no change). Mégantic-L'Érable would be 14.3% under quotient and Lévis-Bellechasse 10.9% over quotient.

The report also agrees to modify the name Avignon-Matane to Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia. (long name)

The House report puts more people in Vaudreuil. Instead of being 10.9% over quotient it becomes 13.3% over. Seems a bit big to me. Vaudreuil-Soulanges saw the second biggest growth for Quebec ridings between the last two census. If there is still growth this riding could be at 20% over already at the time of next election. 

[Wilfred Day]

The Ontario Report of the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs was tabled in the House June 12.

"Within 30 days after the report is referred back to the CEO, the commission considers the objections and decides whether to modify any boundaries or district names. Then the commission submits its final report to the Speaker of the House of Commons through the CEO."

Due July 12 (tomorrow), plus any time it took for the House to send the Report to the CEO.

[RogueBeaver]

How many are left? Will the representation orders be proclaimed on time in September?

[Njall]

How many are left? Will the representation orders be proclaimed on time in September?

I think BC, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec are left.

[Wilfred Day]

BC, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec are left, yes.

The House Committee Reports on Saskatchewan, BC, and Quebec were all tabled June 3, and on Ontario June 12.

So the Commissions' Disposition of Objections for Saskatchewan, BC, and Quebec are all overdue, unless they've been given to the CEO who is sitting on them. Why aren't they on the Redistribution website?   
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e

[Krago]

Reply from an e-mail I sent to Elections Canada:

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NOTE: The House of Commons is adjourned until Monday, September 16, 2013.

[Wilfred Day]

Reply from an e-mail I sent to Elections Canada:

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NOTE: The House of Commons is adjourned until Monday, September 16, 2013.

Will the expected prorogation for a new throne speech change this date?

The Calgary convention was supposed to come first. But the rescheduled convention date is Oct. 31 to Nov. 2. They won't prorogue to that late a date, surely.

So: when?

[Krago]

Reply from an e-mail I sent to Elections Canada:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

NOTE: The House of Commons is adjourned until Monday, September 16, 2013.

Will the expected prorogation for a new throne speech change this date?

The Calgary convention was supposed to come first. But the rescheduled convention date is Oct. 31 to Nov. 2. They won't prorogue to that late a date, surely.

So: when?

An Adjournment Tabling Day has been scheduled for Wednesday, August 21.  The remaining reports will be made public then.

[Wilfred Day]

Reply from an e-mail I sent to Elections Canada:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

NOTE: The House of Commons is adjourned until Monday, September 16, 2013.

Will the expected prorogation for a new throne speech change this date?

The Calgary convention was supposed to come first. But the rescheduled convention date is Oct. 31 to Nov. 2. They won't prorogue to that late a date, surely.

So: when?

An Adjournment Tabling Day has been scheduled for Wednesday, August 21.  The remaining reports will be made public then.

But there was an Adjournment Tabling Day July 17. "For QC, BC and SK, the end of this 30 day period was July 3 and, for ON, July 12. This was done . . ." So why didn't they get tabled July 17? Sounds like some Elections Canada staff were on holiday: "Commissions are now preparing their final reports reflecting these decisions. These will be sent to the Speaker in August or early September." BS, blame the Commissions; but the Commissions finished on time, so why the delay? Result: the Commissions busted their guts all the way through to meet the new shorter timelines, but Elections Canada are on holiday.

You're an optimist, saying "August 21" when the email from Elections Canada said "August or early September." I hope you're right. 

[Wilfred Day]

John Ibbitson writes http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/toronto-still-a-political-barometer/article13605665/ "The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario submitted its final report last week . . . ."

So where did Ibbitson find it?

[Krago]

Why don't you e-mail him and ask?  Then you can let us know.

[Wilfred Day]

Why don't you e-mail him and ask?  Then you can let us know.

I did. He's not saying much. Did one of the Commissioners leak a little information to him? But the disposition of objections is not yet published.

[Wilfred Day]

In Quebec the three new ridings seem to be Sainte-Rose/Blainville (Marc-Aurele-Fortin goes), Mirabel and Montarville/LeMoyne (St-Bruno--St-Hubert goes as well).

The result is an odd evolution of the present swollen riding with a regional personality split between Montreal and the Outaouais: Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel.

Since 54% of it goes into the new Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation, and only 46% into Mirabel, suburban Mirabel is not the successor to any present riding. However, Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel was 49.9% in the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area, 82% in the Laurentides Region, and only 18% in the Outaouais (and only 0.5% of it is in the Gatineau CMA). But its nominal successor riding, Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation, is 33% (30,832) in the Gatineau CMA, 23% (21,969) outside the Gatineau CMA but in the Outaouais, making 56% (52,801) in the Outaouais, and 41,407 (44%) in the Laurentides, with none of it in the Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal (CMM). Which one is really the "new" riding?"

Its current MP is Mylène Freeman, one of the bright young "accidental MPs" as president of NDP McGill (although she was a veteran candidate, having run for for borough-councilor of a district in Outremont under the banner of Projet Montréal), living proof of the success of the French Immersion programme in Stouffville, Ontario, who has gone on to be Chair of the NDP Women’s Caucus. She deals with the split personality by having two riding offices, one in semi-urban Lachute (which will remain part of Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation, abutting Mirabel) and one 63 km away in little St-André-Avellin in rural Papineau (not in the Gatineau CMA). Françoise Boivin has her office in downtown Gatineau, leaving the eastern sectors of Masson-Angers and Buckingham ready to hand over to Mylène Freeman, assuming no one takes over the nomination from her. But can that be assumed?

[Hatman 🍁]

Masson-Angers and Buckhingham aren't in the Gatineau riding, they're in the Pontiac riding.

[Wilfred Day]

Masson-Angers and Buckhingham aren't in the Gatineau riding, they're in the Pontiac riding.

Currently, yes. Hmm. Mathieu Ravignat does have a riding office there, in Buckingham. Redistributed Pontiac has a notional NDP majority of 21.37%, while Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation has 21.75%. Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel had only a 15.31% NDP majority. I don't suppose Ravignat would prefer Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation. My point is, Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation is a good riding. New Mirabel has a notional NDP majority of 18.53%, but that would be shallow support. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation looks like a prize worth fighting over.