India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

Is BJD back in alliance or supporting BJP and NDA again?
What about AIADAMK now when its leader J. died

BJD right now is not in NDA but is often seen a a party that can do business with BJP.  BJD's main motivation is its continued domination of Odisha(used to be Orissa.)  Right now in Odisha it is a 3 party system where BJD is dominant followed by INC and then BJP.  Given BJD still sees INC as its main enemy  it is more likely to align with BJP if pushed comes to shove.  Of course given the decline of INC in Odisha last couple of election cycles BJD decided that dumping BJP does not hurt and could enhance its domination of Odisha politics as it can then capture the Muslim and Leftist votes for itself.  If INC were the surge again in Odisha then BJD will go back to joining NDA.

For AIADMK the death of Jayalalithaa did give the BJP an opening to pull AIADMK into its orbit.  The BJP hope was that Panneerselvam, who has no mass base, stays on as CM and nominal head of AIADMK and the intra-factional conflicts within AIADMK would then pull AIADMK into NDA.  It seems that what took place was that all AIADMK factions, seeing the danger from BJP and its DMK rival it it does not pull together decided to coalesce around  Jayalalithaa's chief aide, Sasikala Natarajan, who has never given a political speech in her whole life, as leader of AIADMK.  

Sasikala Natarajan


There is also now pressure for Sasikala to become TN CM over the objections of Panneerselvam.  I made this comparison before, but this is like if Hillary Clinton was elected President, then died in office, and then the Democratic Party coalesces around Huma Abedin as leader of Democratic party and then pressure now President Tim Kaine to resign to make way for Huma Abedin to become President.  So powerful was  Jayalalithaa's hold on AIADMK that her chief aide would do as an successor since she has no blood relatives.  Anyway this development is for sure bad news for BJP as it is well known that Sasikala, who is a good behind-the-scenes operator for AIADMK, is pretty negative on BJP.  The fact that Sasikala might become a strong leader for AIADMK will also mean that AIADMK will not fall apart for now and the duopoly of AIADMK-DMK will continue giving BJP no space to grow in TN.

[jaichind]

It is probably a good idea for BJP to not get Upper House majority since then it becomes insanely autocratic & does stupid things like demonetization!

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

[jaichind]

The UP drama does not end.  Even after the Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav factions both went to ECI to claim the SP symbol,  Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav meet several times to work out a deal to re-unite SP.  The deal Akhilesh Yadav is offering is a 1) Mulayam Singh Yadav restored to position of Mentor-President but Akhilesh Yadav will control the candidate selection and alliance making and 2) Shivpal Singh Yadav moved out of UP politics moving giving him some sort of national role  like a Rajya Sabha seat.  It seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav insist on having control for candidate selection so there is still deadlock. 

The reason why  Akhilesh Yadav wants a deal but insist on candidate selection/alliance making is because one can game out the various election scenarios given different SP configurations since that is the wild card in this election.

1) Strong Old SP.  SP maintains Yadav and Muslims vote while BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.  SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with BSP trying to scrap Muslims votes from SP and INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.    Result: Very narrow BJP win over SP with BJP far from majority

2) Mediocre Old SP.  SP still has most of the Yadav and Muslim votes but some Muslim vote drift to BSP while BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.  SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with the BJP having an edge.  INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.   Result: BJP landslide  win with clear majority with both SP and BSP far behind.

3) Weak Old SP.  SP loses a majority of its Muslim base to BSP while  BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.    SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with the BJP having an edge.   INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.  Losing its Muslim base means SP is not competitive and the election becomes a BJP vs BSP affair.  Some Yadav votes drift from SP to BJP to block BSP. Result: Significant BJP win with narrow majority over BSP with SP far behind.

4) New SP with old SP working against it without INC-RLD alliance.  New SP loses Muslim votes to both Old SP and BSP and loses Yadav votes to Old SP.  New SP is competitive with BJP for Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes but it is not enough to make up the loss of Muslim and Yadav votes.  BJP has the edge over new SP for lower OBC votes although some lower OBC votes goes to Old SP.  INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.  Result: Narrow BJP win over SP with BJP short of majority.

5) New SP with old SP working against it but with INC-RLD alliance.  New SP loses Yadav votes to Old SP but with INC-RLD alliance keeps the Muslim vote with INC alliance and gains Jats vote with RLD alliance.  New SP-INC competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes and makes up for the loss of the Yadav vote to Old SP.  BJP has the edge over new SP for lower OBC votes although some lower OBC votes goes to Old SP.  Result: Neck-to-neck between BJP and New SP-INC-RLD

6) New SP with old SP support without INC-RLD alliance.  United SP consolidates Muslim and Yadav votes and is somewhat competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes  but is more competitive relatively with BJP for lower OBC vote.  Result:  Neck-to-neck between BJP and united SP.

7) New SP with old SP support with INC-RLD alliance.  United SP-INC-RLD consolidates Muslims, Yadav, and Jat vote and is competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes with New SP image and INC part of alliance.  BJP does do better with lower OBCs since the relative strength of Old SP is smaller with this setup but does not make up for the anti-BJP consolidation and losses in its Upper Caste and Higher OBC vote bank.  Result: Narrow victory for United SP-INC-RLD over BJP.

Until the Akhilesh Yadav  coup it looked like scenario #2 or #3 was likely to take place with #3 are more and more likely.   Ideally Akhilesh Yadav wants scenario #7 ergo he is proposing a deal where he still is free to form an alliance with INC-RLD and project a pro-development image but needs to avoid #4.  He needs either an alliance with INC-RLD OR a reunification of the SP under his leadership, ideally both.

[jaichind]

New UP ABP-CSDS Poll which took place right after the SP drama over the weekend.



SP         30%    146
BJP        27%    134
BSP       22%     98
INC        8%      16
Others   13%      9

This is without a SP-INC-RLD alliance.  It seems that  Akhilesh Yadav gambit has worked so far although part of it might be blowback on demonization.  



Only support on who should be CM it is

Akhilesh Yadav                28%
Mayawaiti                        21%
Mulayam Singh Yadav       3%

Here the lack of a CM candidate will hurt BJP if the election become a "Presidential" style election.  BJP needs to balance its Upper Caste and OBC factions ergo it could not project a CM candidate.



On Akhilesh Yadav  vs Modi


Akhilesh Yadav seems a bit more popular than even Modi 34-32



On support on who should lead SP


Akhilesh Yadav is way ahead.  Mulayam Singh Yadav should really read the writing on the wall.



On support by community



SP still retains most of Muslim and Yadav votes although some are going to BSP.    SP needs to win back those votes to have a chance to defeat BJP.  SP does seem to be making some inroads into Upper Caste votes.  Mayawati is a Jadav Dalit.  BSP has alway been the strongest among the Jadav Dailt which is the highest Dalit group.  The lower Dalits are for BSP but less strongly so.  



If SP splits into Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav factions who run separately then it is


BJP                                   163
BSP                                  115
SP(Akhilesh Yadav)             87
INC                                    17
SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav)  12

BJP winning but without a majority.  Although in such a case I think it will be SP(Akhilesh Yadav)-INC-RLD in an alliance.  I suspect that based on this poll in such a case it would be something like

SP(Akhilesh Yadav)-INC-RLD          160
BJP                                               145
BSP                                                85
SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav)               10

[jaichind]

There seems to be a battle within UP INC on whether to ally SP once the dust settles on the SP civil war.  Rahul Gandhi seems to be for an alliance given his good relationship with Akhilesh Yadav.  The local UP INC leadership seems much more negative.  This seems to be because the head of the UP INC committee Raj Babbar himself used to be a SP heavyweight before a falling out with the Yadav clan in 2006 when he  joined INC.  He even beat  Akhilesh Yadav's wife Dimple Yadav in a by-election in 2009.  It seems most of the INC MLAs are for the alliance.  Also the INC CM candidates for UP Sheila Diksh**t who is the former CM of New Delhi also just came out for an alliance with SP saying that Akhilesh Yadav is a better CM candidate than herself and she would be glad to step aside to make way for a SP-INC-RLD alliance.  I suspect Raj Babbar will not be able to block this alliance.

[jaichind]

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

That is not true & you know it. Let's not not give a political spin. He ordered a disastrous demonetization on his own without consulting people something which was planned by a fundamental right wing think-tank for a decade who had pitched this to Modi for years.

Besides the opposition has been incredibly supportive - Insurance Bill, Coal Auction, GST etc - BJP used to be like the Republicans opposing everything.

He is incredibly authoritarian, makes cheap attacks @ people & doesn't want to work with people ( & to be honest there are few high quality right wing people). It is better for him to not have Super-majority (although the Upper house has no powers except constitutional amendment, Budgets are passed by lower house controlled by BJP) so that he can become a mini-dictator!

Well, my statement was more under the assumption that the Modi regime has a real vision of neoliberal economic reform which I do not think he really has so the entire statement should be seen as counterfactual.  The Modi agenda has been blocked/delayed in the Rajya Sabha by non-NDA forces although Modi should take a major part of the blame with the way he tried to ram through his changes without negotiation.  Modi trying to topple various local INC  administrations makes it less likely that UPA will cooperate.  Anyway  demonization is really about projecting an image of action.  Modi promised revolutionary changes in 2014 and will be in trouble in 2019 if he is seen as not delivering.  Demonization, even if it is executed poorly, helps project the image of Modi as a man of action and I suspect that even if the economic effects are not positive, and it is not, at least on the short run, that the BJP will not be hurt much by it and in fact could gain. 

[jaichind]

ECI came out with election schedule

UP 7 phases
First phase: 73 constituencies, 15 districts go to polls on 11 February
Second phase: Polling date 15 February
Third phase: 69 constituencies go to polls on 19 February
Fourth phase: 53 constituencies to go to polls on 23 February
Fifth phase: 53 constituencies 27 February
Sixth Phase: 49 constituencies include 7 districts and they go to polls on 4 March
Seventh Phase: 40 constituencies to include 7 districts go to polls on 8 March

Goa 1 phase on 4 February

Punjab 1 phase on 4 February

Uttarakhand 1 phase on 15 February

Manipur 2 phases on 4 March and 8 March

Votes counted 11 March

[jaichind]

Latest Today-Axis Opinion Poll for UP shows a BJP lead with a narrow majority



It has

BJP      33%   206-216     211
SP       26%     92-97        94
BSP     26%     79-85        82
INC       6%       5-9           7
Others   9%      7-11          9

Caste/Community breakdown are


            Brahmin  Thakor    Yadav   Other OBC     Muslim
BJP         59           60         14         53                  4
BSP          9             9           6         15                 21
SP          14           14         67         13                 58
INC          9             6           2           7                   5
other        9           11         11         12                12

Brahmin and Thakor are large Upper Castes groups which make up 10% and 8% of UP population which together is pretty much all of the Upper Castes..  Yadavs are another 8%.  Muslims are around 20% of the population and other OBC around 30%. Somehow this poll did not publish exact Dalit numbers which are another 20% of the population other than to say that BSP wins majority of Dalit votes, which is expected.

The key to BJP's lead is that according to this poll the BJP is winning the battle over SP for the non-Yadav OBCs.  For SP to reverse this they have to either with this bloc of make inroads with Upper Castes.  Most likely both.

As far as who is best for CM it has



It is

Akhilesh Yadav            33
Mayawati                    25
BJP's Rajnath Singh     20   (he is from the Moderate wing of the BJP)
BJK's Yogi Adityanath   18   (he is from the Hindutva wing of BJP)

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis survey on Punjab has INC ahead of AAP and on the edge of majority with SAD+ far behind

INC      35%   56-62  59
AAP      29%   36-41  38
SAD+   24%   18-22  20

But ABP-CSDS survey on Punjab finds it is INC and SAD-BJP neck-to-neck




SAD+    34%  50-58  54
INC       31%   41-49  45
AAP       21%  12-18  16


One way or another AAP has lost a lot of ground from last year when polls show AAP way out in front and winning almost 100 out of 117 seats.

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis survey on  Uttarakhand has BJP ahead  of INC.


BJP      45%   41-46   44
INC     33%   19-23   21
Others 22%    2-6       5

Note that INC might end up forming an alliance with PDF (which includes BSP, UKD and 3 pro-INC independents.)  If so that might change some of the equations of the elections in INC's favor.

[jaichind]

Indians Said to Deposit 97% of Notes Banned to Curb Graft

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indians-deposit-97-of-notes-banned-to-curb-graft-reports/articleshow/56336107.cms

If this is true then this entire demonetisation would have been a huge fiasco.   The whole point was that a good chunk of the 500 and 1000 notes were black money which would have to be destroyed since they cannot be deposited without getting the tax authorities involved.  Now it seems 97% of all such bills have been deposited by the 12/30 deadline.  Of course it could be that the tax authorities still has to review the deposits and then go after the black money.  But unless there is a large chunk of them this entire exercise was for nothing.  Of course a lot of these deposits are fraudulent in the sense that they might be deposited by non-black money people who are depositing them for a fee.  If so all this did was a transfer of wealth from one section of the economy (those involved in large black economic sector to a large number of regular joes that are being paid to deposit the money.)

Again, even if this is true I think the impact the BJP would be limited although clearly negative.  Modi/BJP still own the image/message of "we are trying to do something, anything to try to change the system."

[jaichind]

why do the BJP and INC not do so well in state wide elections as national election but the tories and labour in uk tend to do well in both(except Scotland of course)

Because there are at lot of regional parties in India so when the Indian voter votes for Lok Shaba elections they are thinking about which party to vote for to get a stable majority or at least a stable ruling bloc.  That really means INC or BJP for a lot of people.  For regional elections the focus is a lot lower since voting for a regional party can lead to a stable ruling bloc at the local level.

BTW, I would argue that in Uk the same thing takes place.  If you look at UK council elections there are a lot of independents and various Residents' Association getting elected as councillors even while very little independents or such  Residents' Association  gets elected for MP.

[jaichind]

Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   

[jaichind]

Interesting split in the UP SP. But what will happen with SP elsewhere? And what happened with the merger off SP, JD (U), JD (S), RJD, BJD, INLD etc.

SP is pretty weak outside of UP other than a small presence in Uttarakhand.  The Uttarakhand unit of SP has been pushing for Dimple Yadav, wife of Akhilesh Yadav and SP MP, to lead the campaign in Uttarakhand since her family was originally from what is now Uttarakhand.  So it is clear that the Uttarakhand branch of SP also backs Akhilesh Yadav.

The proposed merger of the various JD parties (SP JD(U) JD(S) INLD RJD and SJP) (not BJD, they never signed up for this) went nowhere and was pretty much dead when Mulayam Singh Yadav took SP out of the Bihar Grand Alliance in 2015 which served him ill anyway as SP got nowhere in the Bihar 2015 elections and the Grand Alliance won a landslide without SP.

[jaichind]

ECI is asking both SP factions to submit “signed affidavits” of SP MLAs by Jan 9th so ECI can get a sense on the relative strength of the two factions within the SP caucus.  If so and with 200+ SP MLAs backing Akhilesh Yadav this is a battle that the Akhilesh Yadav will easily win. 

[jaichind]

The last large state to have elections in early 2017 is Punjab.  The history of Punjab is quite interesting.  First we have British Punjab which was huge



But was split both in terms of religion (there are Muslims Hindu and ShKh areas) and language (there are Hindi and Punjabi areas) which overlap each other.  







In 1947 during the India-Pakistan partition Punjab was divided between India and Pakistan.  




Within India Punjab HP was split out right away as an union territory (becoming a state in 1971.)   Punjab then was what is Punjab and Haryana today.  SAD which was the party of the Sikhs pushed for a partition of Punjab into what is now Punjab and Haryana in 1967 so there can be a Punjabi speaking state which also happens to have a Sikh majority.  The Sikh majority part was a feature and not a bug since SAD sought to create a state it as THE Sikh party could dominate.  Punjab and Haryana share Chandigarh (which is a union territory) as its capital.

This leaves us with this as Punjab which is is all Punjabi speaking but still has Sikh and Hindu areas


Sikhism in theory has no caste but in reality Hindu converts to Sikhism took their caste identifies with them.  SAD is dominated by the landowning and farming Sikh Jats and claims to be the party of the Sikhs.   Punjab also has a high concentration of Dalits (around 30% of the population) of which there are Sikh and Hindu Dalits.  BJS which is proto-BJP was strong in the Hindu part of Punjab especially in a state where Hindus are the minority.  

In the 1960s and 1970s Punjab politics revolve around INC vs SAD in Sikh areas and INC vs BJS in Hindu areas.  The power of INC helped to create anti-INC alliances including SAD BJP as well as CPM and CPI and lead to some short lived SAD led United Front governments.  The attack on the Golden Temple, assassination of Indira Gandhi, and anti-Sikh riots led to greater militancy on the Sikh side leading to the creation of the radical pro-independence SAD(M) splinter in the 1980s.  BSP which appealed to the large Dalit population also grew in the 1980s are INC declined.  By the late 1980s Punjab was in virtual civil war with direct central government control and SAD pretty much boycotted LS and Assembly elections of 1992 which brought in a INC government.  The INC government, even though it lacked a real mandate actually managed to pacify the pro-independence Sikh insurrection to the point where things were normal by 1995.  At the same time the radical SAD(M) declined and the moderate SAD gained ground.  

So the best way to go over recent Punjab election history would be to start with 1996 LS election since that is the first real election after the end of the Punjab insurrection.  The history of Punjab elections after 1996 is really about the opposites SAD (party of moderate Sikh nationalism) and BJP (party of Hindu nationalism) teaming up to take on INC which has strength in both Sikh and Hindu areas.  Both INC and SAD as large number of rebels and SAD as a bunch of splinters which often affect their performance.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13               11                 40.33%  (BSP and JD was part of SAD+)

SAD(M)       7                 0                   3.85%

INC           13                2                  35.10%   

INC rebel                       0                   2.74%

BJP             6                0                    6.48%

CPM+         6                0                    4.29%

SAD allied with BSP and since INC has the trouble of double incumbency at the national and regional level was able to defeat INC.  The 1996 LS election threw up a hung parliament with BJP being the largest party.  Seeing a chance to resume the 1970s alliance between SAD and BJS to its benefit in the next Punjab assembly election in 1997, SAD backed BJP to form a short lived government at the center.    But this formed the basis of a SAD-BJP alliance for the 1997 Punjab assembly election, dumping BSP along the way.  In response INC roped in CPI while BSP joined SAD(M).   Given the long INC rule in Punjab the result in 1997 was a return to power by SAD.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1997 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               94                 46.80%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       2                   3.15%

INC+        117              16                 29.94% (CPI was part of INC+)  

INC rebel                       3                    3.67%

BSP+        96                 2                 10.58% (SAD(M) was part of BSP+)

CPM+        52                0                    2.34% (JD was part of CPM+)



As expected SAD was was turned to power with BJP as its junior partner.  In 1998 a mid-term LS election was called was the United Front government there fell.   This time INC decided to bring in BSP to try to counter SAD-BJP but to no avail since SAD was in the middle of its honeymoon period.

[jaichind]

Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   

Based on your Exit poll data, the INC looks quite weak & gets too few seats. While the other 30 is okay & would consolidate seats of smaller parties giving a decisive edge in marginal seats, 100 seats will be a waste for INC.

If the SP led faction wants to come to power, then I think INC should fight 60-70 at best & SP fight atleast over 300 seats.

Yes, but INC could correctly counter argue that it has 6%-7% vote support in UP and if that can be transferred to its alliance partner (a very big IF) then in a state like UP where it is split 3- and 4- ways 30%-35% of the vote would be enough for a majority an extra 6%-7% vote share is very valuable and INC should be paid for this value.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        12               12                 48.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD(M)       4                 0                   2.73%

INC+         13                0                  41.89%  (BSP and CPI were part of INC+)

CPM+         4                1                    5.24%

The sitting UF PM, Inder Kumar Gujral of JD decided to contest in Punjab and out of respect SAD+ did not contest and aided him to defeat the INC candidate.  The INC grand alliance of INC-BSP-CPI failed to defeat SAD+ at the peak of its popularity and a NDA government was installed at the center.  It did not last after AIADMK pulled out of NDA and another LS election was called in 1999.  This time around INC+ had the upper hand since enough time has passed for anti-incumbency to weigh down the SAD+ government in Punjab.  Worse for SAD was the creation of SAD splinter SHSAD which allied with BSP.  At the same time CPM decided to jump abroad the INC+ train to oppose BJP.  The result was an INC+ victory.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                3                 40.46%  (BJP and BSP splinter DBSM were part of SAD+)

SHSAD+    12                1                 12.34% (BSP and SAD(M) were part of SHSAD+)

INC+         13                9                 44.36%  (CPI and CPM were part of INC+)

INC+ won in Punjab in a polarized election but NDA won overall in India. The next battle is the 2002 Punjab assembly election where SAD was clearly in trouble given the 1999 LS election result.  Both INC and SAD were fighting massive rebellions in their respective parties as SAD splinter LBP was formed.  INC+ managed to eak out a win mostly by beating BJP in Hindu areas even as SAD managed to maintain its seat share in the Sikh areas.

[jaichind]

Punjab 2002 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               44                 37.09%  (BJP and BSP splinter DBSM were part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       4                   3.50%
LBP           38                 0                   1.17%  (LBP was a SAD splinter)                    

SAD(M)      84                0                   4.65%  (SAD spliter SHSAD ran under the SAD(M) symbol)

INC+        117             64                  38.33% (CPI was part of INC+)  

INC rebel                       5                    4.77%
NCP           39                0                    0.90% (NCP was a INC splinter at the national level)

BSP         100                0                    5.69%  


 
INC+ came back into power with a smaller than expected margin.  It was mostly done in by INC rebels in Sikh areas which allowed SAD to win a bunch of unexpected seats.  After this election SHSAD returned to SAD which strengthened SAD and as anti-incumbency weight down on the INC government the 2004 LS election would produce a SAD+ victory.  

[jaichind]

Punjab 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13               11                44.76%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
SAD(M)+     7                0                  5.63%  (SAD splinter LBP was part of SAD(M)+)

INC+         13                2                 38.53%  (CPI and CPM were part of INC+)

BSP           13                0                  7.67%

At the national level UPA actually won an unexpected victory despite the INC+ defeat in Punjab.  Of course this election bods ill for the INC+ Punjab government when it comes up for re-election in 2007.  Worse the relationship between INC and CPI/CPM has declined since UPA came into power at the national level which meant INC and CPI/CPM has lost a common enemy.  As a result INC will contest in 2007 with an alliance with CPI.  The result was a SAD+ victory although most of the SAD+ gains were in the Hindu areas where BJP gained versus INC. 

[jaichind]

Punjab 2007 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       116               67                 45.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       1                   1.11%
        
SAD(M)      37                0                   0.52%  

INC           116             44                  40.90%  

INC rebel                       4                    3.03%
 
BSP         115                0                    4.13%

CPI+         48                0                    1.36%  (SAD splinter LBP and CPM was part of CPI+) 



SAD+ came back to power as expected.  Even more positive for SAD is the SAD(M) was catastrophic and this election is the death nail of the radical SAD(M) faction which in the future could no longer dog SAD on the Sikh nationalism flank.  BSP's decline continued which helped INC but it was not enough.  Just like in 2004 when the 2009 LS election arrived anti-incumbency began to weigh in on SAD and INC was expected to do well in the 2009 LS election despite the fact that INC relationship with CPM/CPI worsened over the US nuclear deal since CPI/CPM themselves have declined in Punjab to be very trivial players.  The result was an edge for INC+ but not SAD+ kept it close from a vote share point of view.

[jaichind]

Punjab 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                 5                43.92%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
LBP+          6                 0                  1.48%  (CPI and CPM were part of LBP+ which is SAD splinter)

INC           13                8                 45.23%  

BSP           13                0                  5.75%



INC held a edge but the victory was not decisive even as UPA did well at the national level.  LBP itself merged back into SAD after the election.  But SAD also suffered another split with SAD splinter PPP being formed which looped in CPI and CPM as allies.  The track record of the incumbant being ousted from power plus the PPP split seems to indicate that INC will win in 2012 assembly election.  The result was a complete surprise where SAD+ came back to power.  What took place was in Sikh areas PPP actually took away anti-SAD votes and swung seats from INC to SAD while INC did make gains against BJP in Hindu areas.