GA-Landmark Communications (R): Obama defeats Romney by 4 points

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surely the demographic-changes-driven realignment in Georgia has already happened? It's run by Republicans now, right? Whereas before... it... basically never had been?

[old timey villain]

Georgia's supposed "realignment" is pretty overstated, IMO. Sure, places like Gwinnett and Cobb are only voting ~55% R instead of ~65% R now, but that's just because of white flight from minorities moving into the suburbs. White Republicans from those counties have been moving further out of the city, to places like Cherokee, Forsyth, Barrow, etc which have always voted something like ~75% GOP, but now have twice as many voters as before.

These voters are the GOP's base in the state; heavily motivated by cultural issues and taxation. And they hate Obama.

The only reason 2008 was so close was due to the greatly increased black turnout that happened everywhere across the South. Sure, that'll happen again, but Obama in Georgia really doesn't have much room for improvement at all.

  This is kind of short sighted in my opinion. Cobb and Gwinnett going for McCain by only 9 points in 2008 was huge, and you can't overlook it as if it doesn't mean something. The GOP clawed their way to the top of Georgia on the backs of Gwinnett and Cobb, and the fact that they are losing their grip on these two counties means they are losing their grip on Georgia. I believe that the Republicans hit their wall in Georgia in 2010. I expect Demographic changes and a suburban realignment will help make the Democrats more competitive than they have been lately.

  I heard someone say once that the path to recovery for a party has to occur after a devastating defeat. Well, 2010 was certainly devastating for Dems in this state, but Republicans shouldn't think that every subsequent election will be a repeat of that. Expect changes in Georgia in the next 5-10 years.

[DS0816]

Georgia is about to overtake Michigan as the No. 8 most-populous state in the Union. I think North Carolina will, by the end of the decade, knock out Mich. at the No. 9 spot and send the Wolverine State down to No. 10.

We have elections where shifts happen every time, and for anyone to think Ga. doesn't reflect swings would be dead wrong. Too bad the Obama camp wasn't more aggressive going after the Peach Tree State, given McCain held it by 5.20% after 2004 Bush won it by 16.60%. It's Republican Tilt not in doubt, it's plenty movable and flippable: Obama won the female vote in Ga. at 54%, better than his performance with bellwethers Ohio and Florida.

If 2012 results in a Republican pickup of the White House, this is a waste. If it results in Obama winning re-election, additional support from that 40% males will go up. And the females' number will also go north. (In other words, a pickup.)

[Mr.Phips]

I wouldnt pay too much attention to these early polls.  As late as June 1992, Bush led Clinton in every state besides Arkansas and Washington DC. 

[Barnes]

Yeah, don't trust this....

Obama might do a few points better than what he's polling, but that his maximum.

Surely the demographic-changes-driven realignment in Georgia has already happened? It's run by Republicans now, right? Whereas before... it... basically never had been?

Basically.  Perdue was the first Republcian Governor since 1872!  The Senate only went GOP that year becasue quite a few Democrats jumped ship, and the House stayed Democratic until 2004.

[freepcrusher]

White Republicans from those counties have been moving further out of the city, to places like Cherokee, Forsyth, Barrow, etc which have always voted something like ~75% GOP, but now have twice as many voters as before. These voters are the GOP's base in the state; heavily motivated by cultural issues and taxation. And they hate Obama.

As someone interested in sociology/political science this is something I have been fascinated by. What politically speaking separates a county like Loudoun, VA and Forsyth, GA?

Loudoun is a very wealthy county (in fact I think it might be the wealthiest in the country). It is a very exurban county with a lot of heavy growth. It is located in Virginia, which for the sake of the argument, is a southern state. In recent years, the county has been competitive for both parties.

Forsyth could have a similar spin. It is a very exurban county, a lot of new growth in recent years, a wealthy county, and in a southern state. But it gave McCain something like 78%, which is unheard of.

[Verily]

Loudoun County is in but not of the South. The majority of the residents, and nearly all of the wealthy residents, were born outside of the South, or their parents were.

Not so for Forsyth County.

Also, government workers and so on.

[Verily]

Surely the demographic-changes-driven realignment in Georgia has already happened? It's run by Republicans now, right? Whereas before... it... basically never had been?

Meh. Not mostly demographics driven. Sure, it was a little bit of old Dixiecrats dying off, but it happened too fast for that to be the primary driver. Mostly, people changed their voting patterns.

[TheGlobalizer]

Loudoun County is in but not of the South. The majority of the residents, and nearly all of the wealthy residents, were born outside of the South, or their parents were.

Not so for Forsyth County.

Also, government workers and so on.

These days, "the South" as a demographic descriptor doesn't really extend north of the triangle area of NC.  VA does not have large, monolithic constituencies.  NOVA is different from Appalachia is different from Norfolk is different from Richmond.

There are South-ish areas of VA, to be sure, but I don't think the same sort of southern identity applies.  Certainly not in affluent NOVA.  Comparing Forsyth Co. to Loudon Co. is rather like comparing it to Westchester Co., NY.