Senate seats in play in 2016

[Orser67]

With the big three election predictors having all put out their predictions, and with many of the incumbents having announced their intention to run for re-election, I'm interested to hear what Senate seats people see as potentially competitive in 2016.

Which seats do you think the "conventional wisdom" is wrong about?

[Orser67]

I'd say:

Will be competitive: Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Very likely to be competitive: Colorado (D), Nevada (D), New Hampshire

Probably at least somewhat competitive: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona (which is my choice for where the predictions are most wrong)

Could be competitive, but could easily fall off the map: Alaska, Missouri, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Iowa

Possibly competitive in very favorable circumstances: Louisiana, Arkansas, Washington (D), Connecticut (D), Oregon (D), Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota

Completely safe: AL, CA, HI, ID, KS, MD, NY, OK, SC, VT

Empirical evidence demonstrates that there is little distinction between Tossup and Leans or Likely and Safe, especially this early in the cycle.

Can you point to an article or paper that makes this claim?

[Orser67]

This is probably my dream scenario. Would require a wave (of course), some strong recruitment, and a probably a few retirements.