Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Sbane]

Looking at the early vote, we are looking at a double digit Hillary win in California. Maybe even 15 point plus.

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MSNBC is showing Hillary up with the early vote in Santa Barbara county. That's probably a good sign for her.

I'm calling Santa Barbara County right now for Clinton....

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I was wrong. Clinton won't just win by 6-8 points, she will massacre Bernie in California.

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MSNBC is showing Hillary up with the early vote in Santa Barbara county. That's probably a good sign for her.

I'm calling Santa Barbara County right now for Clinton....

Not only is she up, she's up 18 points.

I am sure you know, but Bernie will do well with the election day votes. Won't be enough to overcome 18 points though.

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It's all right and this is typical for vote-by-mail states where the ballots that are counted are the first ones through the mail box.

Bernie was only winning Oregon by 5% at the end of election night and is now a 15% win, although it took a few days (and even weeks).

Basically in Cali, those that vote early with VbM are heavily older voters (55+) and higher-income voters, and a huge chunk of voters do it at the last minute (Including putting a stamp on your mail in ballot) or voting directly from voting machines.

Keep Calm and Carry On.

It's over man. We were too cautious. She will win in places we weren't even expecting.

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Ouch, looking at some of the Bay Area counties, this is about to be a bloodbath.

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Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

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And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

I just read a piece about Clinton supporters in California where the reporter said that she had a hard time getting many of them to talk on camera. When she asked why they said to her that they were afraid of being victims of harassment and online bullying by Bernie Bros (and Trumpsters to a lesser degree).

Silent Majority

[Sbane]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

So NBC is estimating there's 31% of the vote remaining, which if it splits 50-50 would be a 10 point margin, and if it splits 55-45 Bernie would be more like a 7.5% margin.

Looking at how Hillary did with well off people, I think the late mail in ballot will be more 50-50 than 55-45 Bernie. It might even be a slight Hillary win. The election day votes must all be counted by this point. That is likely more favorable to Bernie than mail in ballots, even if it is the last minute ones. The Bay Area results really are something.

[Sbane]

So basically Bernie won Hollywood, Downtown LA, Koreatown, probably places like Highland Park as well as Studio City, downtown Glendale etc. A little hard to tell from that map of course. Someone have a more detailed precinct map?

[Sbane]

So basically Bernie won Hollywood, Downtown LA, Koreatown, probably places like Highland Park as well as Studio City, downtown Glendale etc. A little hard to tell from that map of course. Someone have a more detailed precinct map?

Just zoom in here.

Nice, thanks.

[Sbane]

Some of those precincts on the southeast side of UCLA contain high end condos lined along Wilshire boulevard. Overall that area is very well off. And if you look to the west, along I-10 in Santa Monica Bernie actually won some precincts. Once you go north toward the wealthier areas, especially north of Montana, you start seeing very lopsided Clinton wins.

[Sbane]

So also looks like Sanders won San Pedro and South Long Beach, as well as Long Beach in general...

Explanations???

Long Beach makes sense. It's got a hipster vibe to it without being too expensive. More like Hollywood than Santa Monica. San Pedro is full of working class dockworkers. Primarily a Latino neighborhood but also with whites and blacks. They live right at the foot of the Palos Verdes peninsula where they get to look upon the multi million dollar homes of the rich. I guess Bernie's message of income inequality played well there.

Looks like Bernie did decently well in Wilmington as well which is also close to Palos Verdes, full of dockworkers, and even more Latino and working class than San Pedro.

[Sbane]

Ok... California Dem Primary updates for anyone that cares or is interested in voters actually interested in the obscure dynamics of a hybrid Early Vote by Mail/ Same Day / Late Vote by Mail / Provisional ballots.

An additional 200k votes counted since late Friday as per county election sites (49.5-50.5% Hillary):

By order of total Dem vote updated:

Alameda County - 66.5k votes (50.1-49.9 Bernie)
San Diego County- 36.5k votes (47-53 Hillary)
Orange County- 31.9k votes (53-47 Bernie)
San Francisco- 15k votes (51-49 Bernie)
San Bernadino- 13.7k votes (48-52 Hillary)
Monterey- 8.5 k votes (45-55 Hillary)
Kern- 3.4k (42-58 Hillary)
Santa Clara- 2.5k (51-49 Bernie)
Imperial- 1.8k (30-70 Hillary)
Calaveras-700 (59-41 Bernie)


So key items to note, we are first starting to see late vote-by-mail ballots (VbM) trickling in from Socal, and initial results seem to be trending heavily Bernie, as measured by San Bernadino and OC.

Several counties in the Bay Area are close to counting late VbMs and SF and Santa Clara are looking like a 1.5% from same-day and early ballots.

Alameda county had its largest dump so far, and Bernie has a narrow lead already, with many more late VbM to be counted.

Monterey county had its first vote dump since election night, but doesn't appear to be mirroring SLO and Santa Barbara thus far, where there was a dramatic swing from early VbMs and Same-Day votes.

Kern County- First vote dump from Late VbMs and no change in margins, unlike Fresno County. How does this play out in the Central Valley that has been extremely slow to count to understand how the Democratic Primary played out in the heart of UFW country?

Now... with much more limited data from Socal (Nothing really from LA), but an early late VbM surge from Bernie in Orange and San Bernadino, it really does look that at the end of day Bernie might well perform better in Socal than the Bay Area.

Regardless, looks like an overall statewide +1-1.5% from election day numbers assuming that current VbM trends hold, and quite possibly once provisionals are counted a 7-9% Hillary win.

Thoughts/Comments/Whatever....

Sbane... we might need to review the "Late Vote-by-Mail" scenario since it appears that there are multiple waves that trended Hillary early and shifted Bernie later.

Still, thus far total raw numbers favor Hillary 50-50 on Late VbMs, but there does appear to be a bit of a shift taking place in SoCal, outside of SD, as well as Alameda in East Bay.

Excellent work the last few days. I had a busy weekend and haven't really been watching the results closely, but you gave a good breakdown here. Will be interesting to see how much the last minute ballots help Bernie. That is a very interesting phenomenon we are noticing here and will be interesting to see if it continues.

[Sbane]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

That's Barbara Lee's district with Berkeley, right? It was a miracle Hillary ever led there.

But that's about 20% of the district, compared to the 55% that is Oakland, the most diverse city in America, with a lot of blacks.

http://priceonomics.com/the-most-and-least-diverse-cities-in-america/

The people here keep harping on about Berkeley when in reality Bernie obviously did very well in Oakland. He might not have won the city, but he likely did better there than in San Francisco. That is worth noting.

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So I haven't been following the count that closely lately. Looked at the results by congressional district and CD-46 flipped! That is not a district I would have expected Bernie to do well in, not to mention actually win.

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Even if Bernie did better among Anglos than Latinos in the state as a whole, he definitely didn't in the Bay Area and Southern California.

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Even if Bernie did better among Anglos than Latinos in the state as a whole, he definitely didn't in the Bay Area and Southern California.

Okay--- this might well be correct, unfortunately we don't have any exit polling data to work off of, so what do you see to make such a definitive statement?

Curious and not argumentative... just working towards the further pursuit of knowledge through data...

Hillary doing better in CD-14 and 18 than 17 and 19 for example. CD-13 obviously. In SoCal you have CD-34 vs CD-33. CD-46 as mentioned. CD 29 vs CD 30. Also note that I am not saying that Bernie did better than Hillary among Latinos in the Bay Area and SoCal, just that he didn't do worse. I am saying that it was a tie.

Also, I know we already talked about it. Just astounded Bernie actually ended up winning CD-46.

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Bernie actually won Oakland! That is pretty stunning. I called it that Bernie didn't do well in Alameda County solely due to Berkeley. If anything the margin in Berkeley was underwhelming.

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Did Clinton hold on to Calaveras county? it would really ruin the map

BTW why is Humboldt county so left wing? It's pretty rural but Dems dominate it and Greens usually have 5% there in generals

Hippies, lots of Marijuana cultivation etc.