Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Holmes]

CA: Clinton 54, Sanders 45
NM: Clinton 55, Sanders 44
MT: Sanders 56, Clinton 42
ND: Sanders 73, Clinton 27
SD: Clinton 51, Sanders 49
NJ: Clinton 59, Sanders 40

[Holmes]

People are really bullish on Sanders in Montana.

[Holmes]

Anybody else want to contest my call of Clinton for SD?

Not really.

South Dakota messing up the map again!

[Holmes]

More of Sioux Falls came in, Sanders with a 2 vote lead. He'll need to do better than that.

[Holmes]

Why is South Dakota so split geographically?

The east vs. west divide sure is something.

[Holmes]

I think we can pretty safely call CA for Clinton, and MT for Sanders. I want to relish my last win as a Sanders supporter, but once MT is called for him, I'll be changing my banner.

Good campaign. Nice to be on the same side now.

[Holmes]

I think another lesson from this primary cycle is how hard it is to poll Hispanics and that Clinton positively netted on election day compared to the polls. Could be a good sign for Clinton going into November.

Agreed. I remember that big poll of early voters that Clinton was leading 55-45 had latinos tied... I think they dropped the ball with latinos. The early vote was more 62 - 37. Fresno, Imperial, LA, and really all of Central Valley showed that latinos voted for Clinton, especially in the early vote.

[Holmes]

Heh, Santa Cruz county flipped to Sanders. My husband's hometown. Might be the only Bay Area county to go to him at this point...

[Holmes]

I decided not to watch the Sanders speech. Instead, I was watching the CA returns, and I feel like I added 5 years to my life.

[Holmes]

SD: Clinton 51, Sanders 49

Give accolades.

[Holmes]

Santa Clara, Los Angeles and Riverside counties are seriously lagging behind the rest of the state.

[Holmes]

If you told me yesterday that Solano county would be closer than Napa county, I would not have believed you. Maybe his visit to Vallejo did something for his support there. Maybe Sanders performed "relatively" well with African-Americans, or maybe Clinton just performed very well with Asians (possible with Napa and Santa Clara >60% Clinton). Still, I expected Solano to be one of her best counties.

I wasn't surprised to see Santa Cruz go to Sanders. I knew she would do well in Watsonville (and probably the richer areas like Scotts Valley, Rio del Mar, Aptos...) but when I travelled to Santa Cruz city last weekend, Bernie signs everywhere. Typical, though. Same with Berkeley when I was there last a couple of weeks ago. I'm pleased by Clinton's sweep of the Bay Area, though Sonoma county may flip with the late mail-in vote, but probably not.

[Holmes]

And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

I just read a piece about Clinton supporters in California where the reporter said that she had a hard time getting many of them to talk on camera. When she asked why they said to her that they were afraid of being victims of harassment and online bullying by Bernie Bros (and Trumpsters to a lesser degree).

They should've found me to talk to when I went to her rallies. I would've talked about her on camera, no problem.

[Holmes]

I know the feeling, but I've been very open about my support for Hillary among my Sanders-backing (latino!) husband, sister-in-law and father-in-law. The California results have given me sweet vindication.

[Holmes]

Where do you see those numbers, NOVA? The California SOS site only show an increase of about 50k votes from election night.

[Holmes]

What are the neighbourhoods outside of UCLA like? The precincts in UCLA are overwhelmingly Sanders, but right outside, they're overwhelmingly Clinton.

[Holmes]

Nah, it makes sense. In terms of favorable to Hillary, it should be early mail-in votes -> late mail-in votes -> election day votes -> provisional ballots.

[Holmes]

Nah, it makes sense. In terms of favorable to Hillary, it should be early mail-in votes -> late mail-in votes -> election day votes -> provisional ballots.

I remember the talk about how late mail votes favored Sanders in Washington and Oregon and were expected to do the same in California.

Only because Washington and Oregon don't have in-person election day voting. The type of people who send their ballots late in WA and OR (and we're talking election day late) are the types in CA who would just vote in-person.

[Holmes]

I do believe they count provisionals only after all main-in votes have been counted, right? So I'd expect Clinton's margin to expand after all main-in votes are counted, then it should tighten a bit again after counting whichever provisionals they ultimately end up counting. But I believe this whole process will take quite a few weeks.

[Holmes]

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo flipped to Sanders, but Clinton's margin continues to expand.

[Holmes]

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo flipped to Sanders, but Clinton's margin continues to expand.

Source for Santa Barbara? Saw the numbers on S.L.O....

The California SoS site. Sanders took a 107 vote lead.

[Holmes]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

Let's all give Sanders a round of applause, guys.

[Holmes]

Yeah. Still surprising though. I was also expecting Berkeley to vote for Sanders by a higher margin.

[Holmes]

In 2016, that would be Gaithersburg, according to a study by WalletHub, followed by Jersey City. A fun project would probably be to see who won each of these cities.

https://wallethub.com/edu/most-diverse-cities/12690/

[Holmes]

Valadao probably won't lose, but I wouldn't sleep on him either. There's a chance.