Clinton wont win the Wolverine state by 10, she should win the dtate by four, just like Kerry did over a decade ago.
MI, WI & Pa usually polls with Natl average and Clinton is leading by four.
That's... not accurate. Kerry lost the national PV by 2.5 but won all of those states.
For example, WI has been an average of +3 more D than the nation as a whole since 1992. The same is true for MI and slightly for PA.
I did the work for you
Since 1992
WI - D+3 vs D national popular vote
MI - D+3 vs D national popular vote
PA - D+1.5 v D national popular vote
So if say a Hillary were to win by the same margin as Obama 51-47 in 2016...
You'd expect
WI - 54%
MI - 54%
PA - 52.5%