Predict the 2014 Senate result

[Indy Texas]

Landrieu has the oil & gas industry firmly in her corner. LA may be a deep red state but don't underestimate this woman. I'd say the seat's hers for another term if she wants it.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy's a strong opponent, plus the Jindal machine and overall Republicanization. But I'd categorize this as tossup or at best Slight R for now.

AR: Similar to LA but no GOP machine on the ground. Griffin and Cotton are young conservative stars with plenty of fundraising power. On the flip side, Pryor's approvals are over 50 and the name is second only to Clinton.

AK: Lean R. Parnell or Treadwell are very strong opponents.

NC: Agreed. GOP bench is a problem.

[sg0508]

Obviously, the economy will again be an issue, but the democrats will hold their own. They may lose a seat or two, but don't underestimate them. In addition, don't overestimate the GOP.  They will blow 1-2 seats that should be shoe-ins due to insaniac primaries.

[CatoMinor]

Note: IA & WV are toss ups unless Harkin and Rocky run for re-election. SC is a toss up if Graham gets primaried.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd guess the most vulnerable seats are LA and SD (with Johnson probably retiring), and maybe Alaska. All the other incumbents should be able to hold on in a non-wave year, though 1 to 3 might still end up losing, or retire and make the seat competitive. We've got a chance at picking up Maine, if Collins follows Snowe in retirement. So right now I'd say Democrats are slightly favored to retain control. Something around a 55-60% chance.

[Holmes]

Kagan will not lose reelection.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

South Dakota: Johnson is extremely vulnerable even if he runs for reelection.  His health could prevent him from running an active and energetic enough campaign to beat Rounds (Rounds can be beaten, but it would require a major effort on Johnson's part).  Rounds could be vulnerable on abortion though (especially if Johnson is pro-life, which would give him some cover when attacking Rounds on that ballot measure he supported).  My guess is that either Johnson doesn't run for reelection and Rounds wins by a solid margin (something like 58%) or Johnson runs and Rounds narrowly wins after leading by 2-3 points for the last few months of the campaign.

Alaska: Begich is obviously quite vulnerable, but he is also an extremely strong and energetic campaigner.  He has already suggested that he wants to make social security a major issue in the campaign.  Some of this depends on who the Republicans nominate, Pernell would win, but he probably won't run.  Joe Miller might run, but Begich could definitely beat him.  The rest are unknowns to me.  The tea-party could hurt the Republicans here if they get someone like Miller nominated.  Until we have some idea of who is running, I can't predict this one.

Louisiana: Landrieu is a strong candidate with many of the right interest groups in her corner.  But the likely Republican nominee, Bill Cassidy, seems like a strong candidate and the state's political trend is on his side.  This one could be a real nail-biter. 

Arkansas: I think Pryor will win, he seems to be in good shape.  The Republicans could force the Democrats to spend some money here though.

West Virginia: If Rockefeller retires and Capito is the Republican nominee, this could be a problem for the Democrats.  However, Capito is not as unbeatable as she is sometimes made out to be and the right type of Democrat could beat her.  I could see the tea-partiers blocking Capito's nomination or just discouraging her from running (she seems to be waiting for an easy race).  McKinley might actually be more likely to run.  He'd also be a strong (but beatable) candidate, but I don't think he'd scare strong Democrats away from the race the way Capito might.  If Rockefeller runs, he wins, but by less than he has in the past.  Capito won't run against Rockefeller; McKinley run and would make the Democrats (or at least Rockefeller) spend money, but he'd narrowly lose.  If McKinley and Capito sit this one out, then the Republicans will be out of luck here.  I can't say more until we know who is running.

North Carolina: Depends who runs, the tea-party could really screw the Republicans here.  The Republicans need someone in the mold of McCrory.  Can't say much until we know who is running.

Kentucky: Depends who runs and even then it would be a tough race, but McConnell is beatable with the right candidate.  At the least, the Democrats can make the NRSC waste tons of money here.  McConnell has the early advantage though and I doubt he'll have more than token opposition in the primary.

Iowa: If Harkin runs, he wins.  Even in an open seat, I think the Republicans would have a lot of trouble winning the seat.  Steve King is acting like he wants to run and he'd win the primary, but have no shot in the general.  Latham could win, but I don't see him running (or winning a statewide primary against King, for that matter).

Montana: Baucus has recovered somewhat from the healthcare debate and the Republicans have a surprisingly weak bench here.  Baucus has the early advantage...somehow

Maine: If Collins retires its a Democratic pickup, if she runs then she wins.

New Hampshire: Shaheen should win; the Republicans might make the Democrats spend money here, but even that is iffy.

[Mr.Phips]

South Dakota: Johnson is extremely vulnerable even if he runs for reelection.  His health could prevent him from running an active and energetic enough campaign to beat Rounds (Rounds can be beaten, but it would require a major effort on Johnson's part).  Rounds could be vulnerable on abortion though (especially if Johnson is pro-life, which would give him some cover when attacking Rounds on that ballot measure he supported).  My guess is that either Johnson doesn't run for reelection and Rounds wins by a solid margin (something like 58%) or Johnson runs and Rounds narrowly wins after leading by 2-3 points for the last few months of the campaign.

Alaska: Begich is obviously quite vulnerable, but he is also an extremely strong and energetic campaigner.  He has already suggested that he wants to make social security a major issue in the campaign.  Some of this depends on who the Republicans nominate, Pernell would win, but he probably won't run.  Joe Miller might run, but Begich could definitely beat him.  The rest are unknowns to me.  The tea-party could hurt the Republicans here if they get someone like Miller nominated.  Until we have some idea of who is running, I can't predict this one.

Louisiana: Landrieu is a strong candidate with many of the right interest groups in her corner.  But the likely Republican nominee, Bill Cassidy, seems like a strong candidate and the state's political trend is on his side.  This one could be a real nail-biter. 

Arkansas: I think Pryor will win, he seems to be in good shape.  The Republicans could force the Democrats to spend some money here though.

West Virginia: If Rockefeller retires and Capito is the Republican nominee, this could be a problem for the Democrats.  However, Capito is not as unbeatable as she is sometimes made out to be and the right type of Democrat could beat her.  I could see the tea-partiers blocking Capito's nomination or just discouraging her from running (she seems to be waiting for an easy race).  McKinley might actually be more likely to run.  He'd also be a strong (but beatable) candidate, but I don't think he'd scare strong Democrats away from the race the way Capito might.  If Rockefeller runs, he wins, but by less than he has in the past.  Capito won't run against Rockefeller; McKinley run and would make the Democrats (or at least Rockefeller) spend money, but he'd narrowly lose.  If McKinley and Capito sit this one out, then the Republicans will be out of luck here.  I can't say more until we know who is running.

North Carolina: Depends who runs, the tea-party could really screw the Republicans here.  The Republicans need someone in the mold of McCrory.  Can't say much until we know who is running.

Kentucky: Depends who runs and even then it would be a tough race, but McConnell is beatable with the right candidate.  At the least, the Democrats can make the NRSC waste tons of money here.  McConnell has the early advantage though and I doubt he'll have more than token opposition in the primary.

Iowa: If Harkin runs, he wins.  Even in an open seat, I think the Republicans would have a lot of trouble winning the seat.  Steve King is acting like he wants to run and he'd win the primary, but have no shot in the general.  Latham could win, but I don't see him running (or winning a statewide primary against King, for that matter).

Montana: Baucus has recovered somewhat from the healthcare debate and the Republicans have a surprisingly weak bench here.  Baucus has the early advantage...somehow

Maine: If Collins retires its a Democratic pickup, if she runs then she wins.

New Hampshire: Shaheen should win; the Republicans might make the Democrats spend money here, but even that is iffy.

Sounds about right. 

Ill agree that if Harkin runs in Iowa, he wins.  He is pretty much the male version of Barbara Boxer.  He will not be caught flat footed like Feingold in 2010. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

[Mr.Phips]

New Hampshire?  Really?  Shaheen is pretty popular there and its a blue leaning state in most years. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Virigina
Toss-up, even if Warner runs again.  A strong Republican could beat him, but if none of them run, then he probably wins.

Nope.  Warner is safe as can be.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I don't get these people claiming that NH is up for grabs.

[Blackacre]

The Democrats have a disadvantage in that they have more seats to hold onto, BUT they have that huge database and ground game from Obama's 2012 campaign that won him the race this year. I predict that the Democratic candidates will use that to their advantage and gain a similar result to this race: a couple of pickups despite a huge disadvantage.

[Mr.Phips]

The Democrats have a disadvantage in that they have more seats to hold onto, BUT they have that huge database and ground game from Obama's 2012 campaign that won him the race this year. I predict that the Democratic candidates will use that to their advantage and gain a similar result to this race: a couple of pickups despite a huge disadvantage.

There almost certainly wont be pickups.  If Collins retires in Maine, that will likely be a pickup, but that is offset by a probable loss in WV at this point. 

[RogueBeaver]

GOP takes LA, SD, WV. If Collins pulls a Snowe then Dems take her seat. I'm unsure how strong the GOP bench is in NC so we'll see. With the AR troika declining then Pryor most likely wins unless a national wave lifts a second-tier Pub to victory. In NH Guinta will run against Shaheen, some people think Sununu might try for Round 3 but IMO both are damaged goods. National wave required for Shaheen to lose, she's quite popular IIRC.

[Miles]

Safe= >90%
Likely= >60%
Lean= >40%
Tilt= >30%

I have Levin,Rockefeller and Lautenberg retiring while Baucus, Johnson, Harkin and Durbin all run again.

[Vern]

If the Republicans want to win in NC, they need a women to face Hagan.

[SPC]

If the Republicans want to win in NC, they need a women to face Hagan.

I heard Liddy Dole hasn't had a job for 4 years...

[Keystone Phil]

If the Republicans want to win in NC, they need a women to face Hagan.

I heard Liddy Dole hasn't had a job for 4 years...

Absolutely not. She threw away a seat more spectacularly than Allen but not quite Akin-territory.

[Vern]

If the Republicans want to win in NC, they need a women to face Hagan.

I heard Liddy Dole hasn't had a job for 4 years...

Absolutely not. She threw away a seat more spectacularly than Allen but not quite Akin-territory.

Yea, she would not win. I'm not sure who it will be, but if Republicans want this seat back, IMO, it is going to be with a woman Republican, not a male.

[RogueBeaver]

If the Republicans want to win in NC, they need a women to face Hagan.

I heard Liddy Dole hasn't had a job for 4 years...

Absolutely not. She threw away a seat more spectacularly than Allen but not quite Akin-territory.

Yea, she would not win. I'm not sure who it will be, but if Republicans want this seat back, IMO, it is going to be with a woman Republican, not a male.

Renee Ellmers is the only female option I can think of.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConnell and Collins safe
3-5 seat pu for GOP

[Sol]

If the Republicans want to win in NC, they need a women to face Hagan.

I heard Liddy Dole hasn't had a job for 4 years...

Absolutely not. She threw away a seat more spectacularly than Allen but not quite Akin-territory.

Yea, she would not win. I'm not sure who it will be, but if Republicans want this seat back, IMO, it is going to be with a woman Republican, not a male.

Renee Ellmers is the only female option I can think of.

Ellmers is kind of crazy, so that cancels out.

Thom Tillis is the most likely Republican Candidate, although he'd have some substantial baggage from the General Assembly.

[hopper]

Just noting on Iowa if Harkin retires then I have heard it might be Bruce Braley(D) vs Tom Latham(R.) Thats a toss-up race if that match-up occurs.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama- GOP hold
Alaska- despite Democrats recent gains it'll still be tough re-election sledding for Sen. Begich. His best bet might be of former Gov. Palin enters on the GOP side. Lean GOP takeover
Arkansas- Mark Pryor is a stronger Senator than Blanche Lincoln, but Arkansas has taken a hard turn towards the GOP. Likely GOP takeover
Colorado- Mark Udall on the other hand is in a stronger campaign position then Micheal Bennett was in 2010 and Bennett in the GOP wave. Dem hold
Delaware- Dem Hold
Georgia- Senator Chambliss will lose his primary however it will not matter. Georgia's Demographics have not changed enough to give the Democrats a victory. Lean GOP hold
Idaho- GOP hold
Illinois- Jesse Jackson Jr. can quite possibly be tied to Sen. Durbin through a barrage of negative ads, however Illinois is blue enough that you will see a depressed victory margin but Durbin win all the same. Lean Dem Hold
Iowa- If Harkin Retires Dem Hold, If not Lean Dem Hold, Iowa is a relatively blue state.
Kansas- Not only will the Tea Party challenge to Sen. Roberts succeed, it won't damage the GOP at all. GOP hold
Kentucky- No Challenger to Sen. McConnell appears either from the Right or Left and he glides by unopposed. GOP hold
Louisiana- for Mary Landrieu's electoral status and the state of politics in Louisiana, see Pryor Mark. Likely GOP Takeover
Maine- Susan Collins will see the writing on the wall and retire, handing this seat to the democrats (who might actually be able to beat Collins if she wins a battle with the Tea Party) Dem Pickup
Massachusetts- Dem hold unless Mitt Romney or Scott Brown are the GOP nominee then Likely D hold
Michigan- Carl Levin is sort-of vulnerable, and if he doesn't retire he'll be in a tough race. Lean Dem Hold with Levin, Lean GOP Takeover Without him
Minnesota-Dem Hold
Mississippi- GOP hold
Montana- Jon Tester narrowly won a second term in 2012, Max Bacaus won't be as lucky. Likely GOP pickup
Nebraska-GOP hold
New Hampshire- It's not a swing state people.... Dem Hold
New Jersey- Could be tough if Lautenberg retires. Likely Dem hold with Lautenberg without Lean Dem hold
New Mexico-Dem Hold
North Carolina- North Carolina really likes to replace or retire their senators instead of re-electing them. They will solidfy their status as a new swing state by replacing Sen. Hagan. Lean GOP takeover
Oklahoma- GOP hold
Oregon- Dem hold
Rhode Island- Dem hold
South Carolina "A" (Lindsey Graham's seat) Graham loses the primary but the GOP hangs on. GOP hold
South Carolina "B' (special to fill Jim Demint's seat) unless Mark Sanford is the appointee this one should be safe for the GOP. GOP hold
South Dakota- Completely irrelevant to whether Tim Johnson retires is his chances of victory, Mike Rounds is that strong a candidate. GOP takeover
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander dodges a primary challenge, and wins comfortably. GOP hold
Texas- GOP hold
Virginia- Dem hold
West Virginia- Like South Dakota, it's kind of irrelevant whether the incumbant (Jay Rockefeller) runs for re-election. The GOP is stronger now in West Virginia and I'd even bet that Sen. Manchin switches parties after the election. Likely GOP Takeover
Wyoming- GOP hold

Total Party Pickups- GOP 5-6 Dem 1
Net GOP + 4-5