Democratic Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Holmes]

FOUR HOUR LINES IN A PRIMARY? WTF IS THIS sh**t?

It's so stupid. Caucuses are horrible. With population growth, it's really inconvenient, even borderline impossible, to expect thousands and thousands or voters (caucusgoers) to cram into a high school gym or a hall for 2 hours and caucus for someone. Abolish them and run primaries instead.

[Holmes]

FOUR HOUR LINES IN A PRIMARY? WTF IS THIS sh**t?

It's so stupid. Caucuses are horrible. With population growth, it's really inconvenient, even borderline impossible, to expect thousands and thousands or voters (caucusgoers) to cram into a high school gym or a hall for 2 hours and caucus for someone. Abolish them and run primaries instead.

Note that I wasn't talking about a caucus. I'm talking about the Arizona primary, with only 60 voting places for a state of 6.7 million people.

Oh yeah, Republicans cut a lot polling stations in their budget cuts, right? ing sad.

[Holmes]

Not every precinct has thousands of people waiting in line too.

[Holmes]

Politico called Idaho for Sanders, but then uncalled it after realizing that Idaho and Utah are two different states.

An honest mistake.

[Holmes]

The error in the Dan Jones poll in ID (Sanders +2 vs Sanders +57) is almost as large as the Mason-Dixon poll (Clinton +34 vs Sanders +23) in MN. How are they even getting these 50+ point polling errors?

Their likely voter (caucusgoes) screen was probably waaaay off. In 2008 it was a primary after all.

[Holmes]

I'm really impressed with Sanders' margins tonight. Obviously he was going to win both states, but damn. Even his AZ isn't bad considering what was being expected by some. Despite the shellacking, he likely comes out with more delegates tonight...yes, I know, negligible in terms of gains, but the fact that he didn't lose ground given what was expected is commendable.

I'm not sure about Idaho, but Clinton didn't even try in Utah.  She wasn't even advertising on Utah over-the-air TV.

She didn't air anything in Idaho either. She spent about $600k on TV ads in Arizona, Sanders spent twice that. And he campaigned in the state for four or five days compared to one stop in Phoenix for Clinton yesterday. She didn't even try in Arizona and still won by a near 20 point margin.

Not trying for caucus states however, that probably played a part in the margins.

[Holmes]

...and then any gains made are wiped out by New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania a few weeks later.

[Holmes]

Sanders won't do any better in NY than he did last night in AZ. It's also a closed primary with more non-white voters, and just so happens to be Clinton's home state.

[Holmes]

If Bernie couldn't win an open primary in OH, it's very unlikely he'd win a closed primary in PA.

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Will be interesting to see what happens in Western PA.

That sounds extremely unlikely to me. It's an awfully big stretch to say a group that routinely votes 65-75% for Sanders being excluded is actually a good thing for him. It helped in a very quirky state like Oklahoma that has massive amounts of Dixiecrats who wanted to vote for Trump. It may help him a bit in Western PA, but certainly not enough to counteract the massive margin he'd inevitably get among indies.

You could very well be right, but we'll have to see. You know when the registration deadline is in PA?

In 5 days.

If Mahoning county, OH was any indication, Clinton will carry Lackawana and Allegheny counties, PA in the primary. She will rout Sanders in Philly. Some Dixiecrats in the West (if they even vote or haven't switched to Republicans yet) will hardly be enough to carry the state for Sanders.

[Holmes]

Sanders won't do any better in NY than he did last night in AZ. It's also a closed primary with more non-white voters, and just so happens to be Clinton's home state.

Isn't Illinois her home state?

No? She was Senator from New York, she lives there... just because she was born in Illinois doesn't make that her home state.

[Holmes]

^^

Hillary's home states:

IL: 1947-1974
AR: 1974-2000
NY: 2000-Present

Romney 2.0.

Ooh, the shade. Drag her!