Poland election - October 25 2015

[jaichind]

This is actually funny because during Interbellum period this "Imperial" pattern was not that visible because of variety of parties. In my opinion this division is still present not because of imperial times but because of Yalta and 1945 shifts of population. Population which settled gained by Poland territories was more vulnerable on communist influence, not rooted in territory where they were living so basically less conservative and generally owned much more to the communist Poland  than population from terrains which was inside Polish borders before 1939. Before 1939 Greater Poland was heartland of National Democracy (and people from those terrains were voting on Polish Party which was rather centre-right/centre) while Congress Poland was dominated by socialists and agrarian parties, so compared to present times completely opposite - formerly preservative and staunchly anti-German Greater Poland became more liberal (but still voting on petite bourgeoisie parties), pretty similar to the western parts of Poland - also influenced by them and rather pro-German while formerly revolutionary Congress Poland became more conservative (as they had position to defend something). So in my opinion this is just coincidence that current political "borders" are very similar to the imperial ones and current political division is based on other aspects - not on the times of partitions.

Yes.  I find the regional split in Poland very interesting as well with respect to the 1914 borders.  I would point out that the 2014 Romania Prez elections had a similar split with respect to 1914 borders.

 

[jaichind]

My predictions:


PiS: 39%
PO: 23%
ZLew: 10%
PSL: 7%
Cookies: 6%
.Nowoczesna: 5%
------------------------
KORWiN: <5%
Razem: 1%
Stonoga: <1%
Local/minors: 3%

If KORWiN does not make it past 5% would not PiS win a slender majority on these numbers?  For sure it will be a large PiS majority in the Senate unless there is going to be a lot of tactical voting by ZL and PSL for PO.

[jaichind]

Nowoczesna looks very interesting and it would be great if it makes it past 5%.  All things equal this would be the party I would back if I were voting.  It reminds me a lot of UW back in the 1990s which I also backed as well.

[jaichind]

Just so I am clear, the PiS candidate for PM is Szydło even though Kaczyński is the guy in charge.  In the case, and it seems almost a certainty now, PiS will form the government, will PiS then do a bait-and-switch and put in Kaczyński?  Or will Kaczyński just control things from behind the scenes?   I must assume that Kaczyński is not the PiS candidate because everyone, including Kaczyński, knows that Kaczyński is a polarizing figure and running him risks a PiS defeat from the jaws of victory.

[jaichind]

Final ? IBRiS Poll has

PiS             38.2%    218
PO             22.4%    116
Kukiz’15     10.0%     42
ZL               8.6%      37
.N                7.9%      29
PSL              5.2%      17

KORWiN       3.8%
Razem          2.9%

[jaichind]

You know that with Saturday in Poland there will be electoral silence so you can't post anything about Polish parties Otherwise Polish police will find you and you will go to jail. For real.

This is some sort of cooling off period ?  I guess no polls either.

[jaichind]

Any link to results that one can use?

[jaichind]

POLISH BALLOT TURNOUT 39% AT 5PM: STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION

[jaichind]

Is it now 8pm in Poland? Exit polls ?

[jaichind]

Voting ends at 9pm

Ooops

[jaichind]

You mean exit poll leaks or internal party exit polls?
As for the 17 it was according to guy from Twitter who is good at this "game":

PiS 41
PO 23,6
Cookies 8,6 
KORWiN 4,8
Zlew 6,6
PSL 5,3
Razem 3,6
.Nowoczesna 6,7

Wow,  this means ZL is out right?   If so and on these numbers PiS should have a majority on its own w/o even needing K'15 right ?

[jaichind]

exit polls

PiS 39.1   242 seats
PO 23.4   133 seats

5 Parties to enter parliament.  ZL seems to be out.

PiS set for a majority.

[jaichind]

Why do you keep saying ZL out? ZL out of parliament? They have over 5 in the exit poll.

ZL is an alliance and the threshold for alliances is 8% and not 5%.

[jaichind]

If PiS gets a majority, is this not the first majority ever in modern Polish Sejm elections ?

[jaichind]

http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/

Seems to be link to results.

[jaichind]

Exact exit poll

EXIT POLLS:  PERCENT OF NATIONAL VOTE AND PROJECTED SEAT COUNT
                      % vote     seats
PiS                     39,1       242
PO                      23,4       133
Kukiz'15               9,0         44
Nowoczesna         7,1         22
PSL                       5,2        18
United Left (ZL)    6,6          0
Korwin                  4,9          0
Razem                  3,9          0

[jaichind]

What happen to TR/Palikot?  They ran as part of ZL this time, right? How did Palikot and SLD go from over 18% of the vote combined in 2011 to less than 7%?  I assume most of their votes went to K'15, especially those that vote for Palikot in 2011?

[jaichind]

PiS 37,58%
PO 24,09%
Razem 3,62%
Korwin 4,76%
PSL 5,13%
ZLew 7,55%
Kukiz 8,81%
Nowoczesna 7,6%

This is the lower House results rght?  If so then exit polls were pretty accurate.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Law & Justice, which won 37.58% of votes in general elections on Oct. 25, will have 235 of seats in 460-member lower house of parliament, according to official results published by Poland’s state electoral commission.
Civic Platform, with 24.09% of votes, will have 138 seats
Kukiz’15 party has 8.81% of votes and 42 seats
Nowoczesna has 7.6% of votes and 28 seats
Polish Peasants Party has 5.13% and 16 seats
German minority gains 1 seat
Turnout was 50.92%
NOTE: Changing Poland’s constitution requires 2/3 majority in Sejm lower chamber, or at least 307 seats if all 460 lawmakers take part in vote