VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[heatcharger]

Is candidate order randomized on ballots? Very interesting how all Democrats got placed at the top for each race on your ballot.

Nope. I saw somewhere that it's based on which party filed for the election first or something like that, although each county has their own procedures for candidate ranking.

Comstock should just run for Senate. Losing a statewide race is less embarrassing than losing a House seat you've held for a while.

I don't really buy the numbers from that PPP poll for Comstock. Yes, she is probably trailing a Generic D at this point, and yes, she is most likely one of the first Republicans to go down in a Dem wave, but she is not nearly as unpopular as that poll makes it seem, in my opinion. Also she's only a two-termer in the House, and who knows if she has enough clout in NoVA to overpower Stewart, who is the likely 2018 R nominee at this point.

Also I just saw a Gillespie and Northam ad back-to-back on this Nats game I'm watching. Sadly I would say Gillespie talking about cutting taxes is better than Northam pointing out that Gillespie wants abortion banned, at least for the demographic most likely watching this game.

[heatcharger]

Ignoring Wulfric's usual drivel, the ad is fine in a vacuum. NoVA is a pro-choice area, and it's worth trying to turnout liberal women who don't usually vote in non-presidential elections. The problem it's a bad choice for a baseball game considering the demographics.

Idk, I see different ads from Northam when I'm down in Charlottesville, but I don't watch much cable television so most of my ad viewing comes from watching sporting events.

I'm not sure if anyone here is familiar with McLean, but I go there every weekend, and all I see in the outskirts of the downtown area (the VA-10 portion of McLean) are Gillespie/Adams signs, and back during the presidential election, I saw no Trump signs there. I know yard signs aren't good indicators, but it tells me that these upscale suburban voters are differentiating Gillespie from Trump.

I'm not that familiar with the political geography of Fairfax County, so maybe that's just a traditionally GOP area.

In the somewhat distant past, the McLean and Langley areas were a GOP stronghold. Now, it is far from it, but there are inevitably going to be a lot of Gillespie/Clinton/Gillespie voters in upscale suburbs. Trump was an aberration of epic proportions, and justifying a Trump yard sign was/is much more difficult than one for Gillespie, Comstock, Romney, etc.

[heatcharger]

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

[heatcharger]

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.

[heatcharger]

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

That's not how I interpreted his post. The point I thought he was trying to make was that the actual primary electorate was so far in the other direction that it makes this poll too unreliable. Their sample envisioned an unlikely electorate, given the primary turnout and the differences in voter enthusiasm since Trump took office.

Additionally, this poll has a 77% white crosstab. For comparison, the 2014 white share in VA was 70%. 2017 will quite clearly be a better environment for Democrats than 2014, and Virginia isn't getting any whiter.

Although yes, it is somewhat imperative that AA turnout not collapse for some reason, and I hope recent events combined with an Obama campaign event prevents that.

[heatcharger]

And Perriello lost to said boring loser after having the entire D.C. establishment + Bernie cult behind him

[heatcharger]

The non-Fairfax flier, which only exists because some union was mad about his lack of support for natural gas pipelines, is only being distributed in Northern Virginia. This is not a region with a lot of black people, and we’re voting for him based on his last name anyway.

[heatcharger]

The non-Fairfax flier, which only exists because some union was mad about his lack of support for natural gas pipelines, is only being distributed in Northern Virginia. This is not a region with a lot of black people, and we’re voting for him based on his last name anyway.

Wait that flier is real?  I thought it was photoshopped?

It's real, sadly enough. You can thank the Laborers’ International Union of North America for their infinite wisdom. Maybe Northam can disavow.

[heatcharger]

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!

Tillis was always within striking distance and had a bunch of tied polls. He was quite clearly carried in by the wave.

Warner's lead was indeed inflated and as expected, undecideds in VA broke toward Gillespie, just at an astounding magnitude. Also there hardly any polls towards the end.

I'll admit there's very little justification I can come up with Feingold's incredibly low-energy performance causing him to lose to a ghoul like Johnson and underperform HRC by 3%.

[heatcharger]

Somewhat unrelated, but UncleSam, aren't you the guy who said Laura Ingraham was a Virgin Mary-like figure to Appalachian voters or something? Do you still believe this?

[heatcharger]

What exactly has Northam uh, lied about with regard to Enron Ed Gillespie? Like I said in a different thread, false equivalencies are powerful weapon deployed by closeted Republicans such as yourself.

[heatcharger]

1. Northam's assertion that Ed Gillespie is associated with Enron in any meaningful way is every bit as spurious (if less bombastic) as Gillespie's claim that Northam 'supports' child molesters. Northam supports voting rights for felons, which in some cases are child molesters. Gillespie lobbied for Enron fifteen years ago and before Enron did anything illicit. Both are logical jumps and effectively straight bullsh**t, even if technically both are 'true', whatever that means anymore.

Yeah no, the facts don't back this one up. Enron was engaging in various frauds that centered around cooking their books before Quinn Gillespie & Associates picked them up as a client in 2001. Gillespie's website hilariously talks about this issue, basically saying "but everyone thought Enron was soo good before they got caught!".

[heatcharger]

National Journal: Progressives fear that Northam could pave the way for a moderate revival within the party

Haha.

[heatcharger]

Perriello would win by 10-15, probably with the highest turnout on record for an odd year.

Uh, no, he probably wouldn't have. Perriello was supposed to be a lightning rod for liberal grassroots activism from across the left-wing spectrum, which was supposed to be part of his GE strength. But he was not able to deliver on that in the Democratic primary. Not anywhere close, actually, even when people like me were sweating like dogs thinking he had a formula for cracking Fairfax County.

[heatcharger]

About the Hampton poll: Just wait like 5 days before they come out with their final poll with Northam +5 to cover their ass. They did this in 2016 and they'll do it again.

[heatcharger]

#Unity here in Charlottesville:



If I hadn't known who these two were and someone told me Northam was 15 years older than Perriello, I wouldn't really believe it.

[heatcharger]

The difference in reaction tends to boil down the fact that voters don't expect Republicans to be ethical or have a sense of morals. People do expect it from Democrats.

[heatcharger]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

This is totally besides the point. I don’t know how many voters there are that were planning on staying home that will now show up for Gillespie, but what I do know is that reactionaries will look for any reason to get riled up, and Latino Victory just gave them one.

Let’s just say I’m glad this indictment news is gonna take up the media spotlight for the next week.

[heatcharger]

They did a bad thing by firing up an army of snowflakes. I'm glad they pulled it down before it got to be a big problem.

[heatcharger]

This minor fiasco kind of stems from the lack of understanding of the political environment by new left-wing groups such as the one that put out this ad. Yes, it's not fair that Gillespie can run a campaign deep in the gutter and Northam can't, but that's the reality the voters and the media have created, so you have to stick with it for now.

[heatcharger]

Alright now I'm starting to roll my eyes. This was a poorly thought-out ad, but the number of people who actually saw it may actually be less than the number of people outraged on Twitter.

[heatcharger]

Alright now I'm starting to roll my eyes. This was a poorly thought-out ad, but the number of people who actually saw it may actually be less than the number of people outraged on Twitter.

The ad only seems much more relevant because we're all on edge sucking down coffee and/or energy drinks all day while refreshing Virginia election-related pages.

In the end it probably won't make a difference one way or the other.

Oddly enough I'm really not that stressed about it, and neither are most of my VA Dem friends and colleagues. Obviously all this built-up angst surrounding the race comes from the shock of the 2016 election, but I have faith in that this state will deliver more statewide Dem victories like it has in every race since 2009. Idk, maybe I'm operating on outdated political philosophies, but I feel like recent history still matters.

[heatcharger]

KKKorey Stewart calls Democrats the party of "criminals, communists, crackheads, and weirdos" as he mocked a transgender candidate.

Both sides do it. I am so proud to be a centrist.

[heatcharger]

The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

[heatcharger]

The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

People seem to forget that not only did Hillary win it, she did so by more than Obama.

It also seems to be forgotten that the Clinton campaign abandoned the state in August, leaving Trump pretty much uncontested on the airwaves and on the ground. To be fair, the latter was a disaster with highlights such as Trump talking about abandoned factories at a rally in Loudoun County.