Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Hatman 🍁]

ing-fiscal-crisis

First, i don't know how accurate the "Ottawa Sun" is, or if it is even accurate

LOL! It's not. It's tabloid trash.

[Hatman 🍁]

Huh. And the Young Turks were so excited when Trudeau won too.

[Hatman 🍁]

I know it's impossible to poll leadership elections but... this is actually happening, isn't it?

[Hatman 🍁]

I love how Forum tries to spin a 416 tie as good news for Wynne. Last poll that had similar 416 # also had Brown +19 provincewide.

Why are pollsters so foolish when it comes to electoral commentary? Hatman is literally the only person I've heard who both works for a polling firm and understands political geography well.

Thanks

But a lot of professional pundits don't know anything about political geography, so it's par for the course.

[Hatman 🍁]

I love how Forum tries to spin a 416 tie as good news for Wynne. Last poll that had similar 416 # also had Brown +19 provincewide.

Why are pollsters so foolish when it comes to electoral commentary? Hatman is literally the only person I've heard who both works for a polling firm and understands political geography well.

Thanks

But a lot of professional pundits don't know anything about political geography, so it's par for the course.

Yes, that was odd reporting by Forum, something like "If the Conservatives want to form a majority government they need to be doing better than a tie in the city of Toronto."

How much can the Tories lose in the Toronto and still form a majority government?  Obviously the numbers can't be calculated in isolation, but my guess would be around by around 10%

We also have to acknowledge that Forum is particularly awful when it comes to political geography, which is ironic, because they usually do the most geographically granular political polling. Sad!

Keep in mind though, knowledge of political geography is not needed for most of my job as a pollster. It comes in handy occasionally for sure, but it's not crucial in the industry.

[Hatman 🍁]

I love how Forum tries to spin a 416 tie as good news for Wynne. Last poll that had similar 416 # also had Brown +19 provincewide.

Why are pollsters so foolish when it comes to electoral commentary? Hatman is literally the only person I've heard who both works for a polling firm and understands political geography well.

Thanks

But a lot of professional pundits don't know anything about political geography, so it's par for the course.

Yes, that was odd reporting by Forum, something like "If the Conservatives want to form a majority government they need to be doing better than a tie in the city of Toronto."

How much can the Tories lose in the Toronto and still form a majority government?  Obviously the numbers can't be calculated in isolation, but my guess would be around by around 10%

We also have to acknowledge that Forum is particularly awful when it comes to political geography, which is ironic, because they usually do the most geographically granular political polling. Sad!

Keep in mind though, knowledge of political geography is not needed for most of my job as a pollster. It comes in handy occasionally for sure, but it's not crucial in the industry.

How much political geographic knowledge does a person need to know that Toronto is normally a very liberal (and Liberal) leaning city?

Especially when said polling firm is based in Toronto?

[Hatman 🍁]

Quarterly Atlantic Canada poll is out.

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 44% (-12)
PC: 28% (+8)
NDP: 23% (+4)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 51% (-1)
PC: 30% (nc)
NDP: 12% (+5)
Green: 5% (-4)

Newfoundland
PC: 39% (+5)
Liberal: 33% (-9)
NDP: 26% (+4)

PEI
Liberal: 48% (+2)
Green: 26%! (+4)
PC: 19% (-6)
NDP: 7% (nc)

NS Liberals are down largely due to labour strife with the teacher's union. Newfoundland Liberals are in 2nd place, probably due to their massive austerity budgets... and holy cow the Greens are in 2nd place in PEI!

strange Green to NDP swing in NB, considering Cardy left the party.

The Greens in 2nd place in PEI doesn't surprise me. Their leader is very popular, and showed leadership during the electoral reform debate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Came here to post the Forum poll, but I see it's already being discussed. Methodology aside, all I can say is LOL.

If these are the numbers heading into the campaign, you can bet the Liberals will erode even further, as left-Liberals swing to the NDP to try and (futilely) stop Patrick Brown. Maybe we can finally win Ottawa Centre back! I can see the NDP is barely ahead of the Liberals in Toronto, so you can tell there is a lot of room for the NDP to grow there, if voters can behind Horwath whose populism is a bit of a hard sell to the Downtown elites (same deal in Ottawa Centre, which is very similar to DT Toronto).

[Hatman 🍁]

Came here to post the Forum poll, but I see it's already being discussed. Methodology aside, all I can say is LOL.

If these are the numbers heading into the campaign, you can bet the Liberals will erode even further, as left-Liberals swing to the NDP to try and (futilely) stop Patrick Brown. Maybe we can finally win Ottawa Centre back! I can see the NDP is barely ahead of the Liberals in Toronto, so you can tell there is a lot of room for the NDP to grow there, if voters can behind Horwath whose populism is a bit of a hard sell to the Downtown elites (same deal in Ottawa Centre, which is very similar to DT Toronto).

We were mostly discussing the federal Forum polls.

The Ontario Liberals are due to be seriously punished.  Jagmeet Singh for next Ontario NDP leader and Premier!

I'd prefer him as federal leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the former is more likely, actually. Hard to see the NDP forming government in this province (not until everyone who was of voting age during the Bob Rae premiership dies off), but making seat gains federally? Not at all unlikely.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the former is more likely, actually. Hard to see the NDP forming government in this province (not until everyone who was of voting age during the Bob Rae premiership dies off), but making seat gains federally? Not at all unlikely.

Funny the number of people in Ontario who will never vote NDP again due to the Bob Rae government, but hardly anybody seems to hold the Dalton McGuinty government against either the provincial or federal liberals.

This is common in many jurisdictions. People hold the NDP to a different standard, because they rarely form government.

Would be nice to see a provincial poll come out of Saskatchewan. The budget was very unpopular with both city and rural folk, and I wouldn't be surprised to see if the Sask Party's 30 point victory evaporated into a single digit lead in a poll.

Mainstreet did a post-budget poll.

47% would vote for the Sask Party, 42% NDP. NDP lead in Regina, narrow lead in Saskatoon and Sask dominates outside the cities.

Wall has a 46% approval rating, 45% disapproval.

http://leaderpost.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-walls-popularity-falls-as-taxes-and-cuts-rise

Holy sh*tsnacks!

[Hatman 🍁]

I heard the other day that the NDP is finally going to get the ball running in terms of fielding candidates for the next provincial election? Wonder if that will shake things up a bit. Depends who the leader is, I guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mid-mandate housecleaning inbound.

On this province: count me extremely skeptical CAQ surge will hold. Happens every 5 years: ADQ 2002/7, CAQ 2011 & now. PQ missed their chance a decade ago (as Josee Legault, Michel David & others have said then & now) to nip these problems in the bud, like Unionists did with BP & RIN. Too late now. So they're stuck in a weird purgatory where QS is an erosion which can't be squashed but not a fatal one a la 1970.

How exactly did Union Nationale squash BP & RIN?

To simplify a bit, co-opted their issues in a diluted form then steamrollered them. BP fell apart pretty quickly once the war ended. RIN was different: Johnson and Bourgault negotiated an electoral pact whose effect was bleeding Grits in suburbia both on & off-island, allowing UN to come up the middle there. Especially younger lefty nationalists/separatists who couldn't stomach voting for conservatives. Johnson's death (per Black, Johnson saw '66 as '44 & '70 as '48) ended the prospect of Phase 2. The pact was 1) consolidate behind UN candidate in 12 swing ridings while leaving poteau on ballot 2) no-comp in leader ridings 3) concentrate their combined energy on Grits. Pretty much what Lisée would want now.

Interesting, thank you.

I heard the other day that the NDP is finally going to get the ball running in terms of fielding candidates for the next provincial election? Wonder if that will shake things up a bit. Depends who the leader is, I guess.

How do you think they would do at this point? I mainly remember this as a pre-Trudeau idea. What's the ignored demographic they'd be targeting? Leftish federalists who can't bring themselves to vote QS?

I think they might have some following if Pierre Ducasse remained as leader, but the problem in Quebec is there aren't many left wing federalists. Same reason Northern Ireland doesn't have a left wing unionist party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey RB, you should include the Greens when reporting on NB polls, since they have a seat in the legislature. Poll has them at 6%, which is 1% lower than in the last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Could QS become a serious competitor? That would be great.

They will do as they always do, and gain one more seat (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve to be exact). At this rate, they will get a majority government in ~250 years.

[Hatman 🍁]

What has the PQ done to offend the sensibilities of the left wing sovereignty movement? I do know that when the PQ was founded in the 1970's it was very close with the labour movement and was a dedicated social democratic party. Did they take the Clintonian DLC/Tony Blair New Labour approach in the 1990's then?

A lot of it has to do with the election of Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, that and the fact that the PQ has a nobody as its leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

I love how QS is polling higher among Anglos/Allos than the PQ; twice as high even.  I suppose the PQ is seen as the "separatist party" whereas QS is seen as the "socialist party" despite the two parties being just as committed to sovereignty. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta's political centrists are attempting to consolidate around the Alberta Party ahead of the 2019 election. Alberta Together, a new centrist PAC being run by Stephen Mandel (former Edmonton Mayor) and Katherine O'Neill (until recently, President of PC Alberta) hosted a cross-party meeting of centrists in Red Deer yesterday, during which 83% of attendees voted in favour of the Alberta Party as the best vehicle to present a credible centrist option in 2019.

What's the point? The only way a non right wing party is going to win is with a divided right or a catch-all non Conservative Party. And the NDP is the best vehicle for that, it certainly is very centrist (at least compared to where the NDP is usually in other jurisdictions).

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, thanks. I saw an article that said something about it, but I didn't think it sounded too realistic.

Calling early elections is just about the stupidest decision a politician can make in a Westminster system.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, thanks. I saw an article that said something about it, but I didn't think it sounded too realistic.

Calling early elections is just about the stupidest decision a politician can make in a Westminster system.

Especially, in this case with NDP down by so much.

Doesn't matter what the polls say, no lead is safe when a snap election is called. I kept telling people this when the UK election was called, but it fell on deaf ears around here.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hadfield could be the next GG.

Not French. GGs alternate between Anglos and Francos, and I suspect there is also a male, male, female, female tradition emerging as well (has been that way since Jeanne Sauve). So, the next GG will likely be a Francophone man. You up for it, RB?

(ETA: The article mentions the French / English tradition, but fails to mention why Trudeau would abandon it, saying only "The belief however is the new governor-general need not be francophone this time". Umm, ok, why?? )

[Hatman 🍁]

Hadfield could be the next GG.

Not French. GGs alternate between Anglos and Francos, and I suspect there is also a male, male, female, female tradition emerging as well (has been that way since Jeanne Sauve). So, the next GG will likely be a Francophone man. You up for it, RB?

(ETA: The article mentions the French / English tradition, but fails to mention why Trudeau would abandon it, saying only "The belief however is the new governor-general need not be francophone this time". Umm, ok, why?? )

I think it's implied Hadfield would be too big to pass on and than it's gravita will allow him to pass it easily (even francophones people like him). He can also says he cannot wait 15 years to appoint him (next male anglophone), as he would be old.

Hmmm. He would be an awesome choice of course. Perhaps too awesome.  Would Trudeau want to pick someone who would steal his stardom? (I guess he's thinking the choice would just enhance his own popularity).

[Hatman 🍁]

Even with a united conservative party, the right wing in Alberta will inevitably splinter. Even if it takes another 30 years.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's Julie Payette. So, at least they got the profession correct.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's Julie Payette. So, at least they got the profession correct.

Sorry, maybe I'm uninformed lol, but who's the "they" you're referring to??

John Ivison specifically. RB posted an article on the last page by him claiming Chris Hadfield was going to be the next GG.