Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Hatman 🍁]

A very sad for Alberta, indeed.

The right will break up again, mark my words. Even if it takes a few decades.

[Hatman 🍁]

A few comments for the folks salty about the merger:

The right will break up again, mark my words. Even if it takes a few decades.

The first sentence is an interesting prediction. The second sentence is like saying water is wet

True. Just trying to console myself. It will probably take a few terms in power for there to be enough anger for a new party.

I must say, the ability for conservatives to unite and find common ground is amazing. I wish the left could do the same.

[Hatman 🍁]

Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

horribly cringeworthy. My favourite part is when they called the RCMP the "Royal Canadian Mountain Police"

[Hatman 🍁]

Caroline Mulroney will be the next MPP for York-Simcoe.

Now there's a prediction I take no issue with (providing that she actually wins the nomination)

[Hatman 🍁]

Would May beat Corbyn in Canada? We did a poll on this in April:



Of course, this was before the last minute swing to Labour.

I also can confirm Merkel is very popular in Canada. We did another poll a few years ago and she was basically the most popular world leader at the time (moreso than even Harper!).

Personally, I wouldn't put Trudeau in the same discussion as Wynne, Notley and Horgan. To be a centre-left politician, you have to actually do progressive things, not just say them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Would May beat Corbyn in Canada? We did a poll on this in April:



Of course, this was before the last minute swing to Labour.

I also can confirm Merkel is very popular in Canada. We did another poll a few years ago and she was basically the most popular world leader at the time (moreso than even Harper!).

Personally, I wouldn't put Trudeau in the same discussion as Wynne, Notley and Horgan. To be a centre-left politician, you have to actually do progressive things, not just say them.

While a bit off topic, has your firm done or will be doing polling in Alberta post merger as well as the upcoming Ontario election.  In the Election predictions site I gave mine so would be interested if that is similar to what your numbers show or not.

We'll be doing plenty of polling, I'm sure. What election prediction site are you referring to?

[Hatman 🍁]

I am referring to Election predictions on this site.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250768.0

Oh, I didn't see that! Thanks.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doug Ford will seek a rematch against John Tory next year.

This comes as absolutely no surprise.

[Hatman 🍁]

absolutely foolish to be looking at seat projections this soon

[Hatman 🍁]

No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was able to find some pretty rare footage of different Canadian election nights. I watched 93,97,2000, 2004 on C-SPAN. I was trying to find 1993 coverage for years on YouTube with no luck.


2004 https://www.c-span.org/video/?182468-1/canadian-election-night-coverage

2000 https://www.c-span.org/video/?160814-1/canadian-election-returns

1997 https://www.c-span.org/video/?c3342938/1997-canadian-election

1993 https://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special

Good find. At 15:08 of the 2004 election, you can see the Marxist-Leninist party take the lead in a riding

(that 'error' showed up in the official returns too, and was never corrected, but was obviously an error as the Liberal candidate won 0 votes in the poll, and it was actually one of those divided polls, so it won't show up on a map, as the results would've been added with the other parts of the poll)

[Hatman 🍁]

Really? Never would have guessed that. My mistake.

Why? The NDP is all about helping the "little guy", and that includes small businesses.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario tramples on one our most fundamental liberties by forbidding protests within 50 meters of an abortion clinic.

The measure has been justified by claims that protests intimidate patients using the clinic and employees trying to go to work. I am eagerly waiting for the same logic to be applied to union pickets

You might find it surprising that I oppose the law; I believe it violates freedom of speech.

[Hatman 🍁]

So I seem to ask this every 8 months or something, but still curious since I'm not a regular observer of Canadian politics...


1. What appear to be Trudeau's broken promises and failures, so far? What did he say he'd do but hasn't done, at least not yet? That's still on their To-Do list?

2. What are the biggest ideas of the opposition?

Trudeau's biggest failure IMO is his 180 on electoral reform. Still very angry about it.

[Hatman 🍁]

So I seem to ask this every 8 months or something, but still curious since I'm not a regular observer of Canadian politics...


1. What appear to be Trudeau's broken promises and failures, so far? What did he say he'd do but hasn't done, at least not yet? That's still on their To-Do list?

2. What are the biggest ideas of the opposition?

Trudeau's biggest failure IMO is his 180 on electoral reform. Still very angry about it.

You can never really rely on one of the big parties to actually enact such major reform, especially electoral reform, if it doesn't immediately benefit them.

Did I think he would actually do it? No. But I can still be disappointed. At least I can use it next time a Liberal tries to get me to vote for them.

So I seem to ask this every 8 months or something, but still curious since I'm not a regular observer of Canadian politics...


1. What appear to be Trudeau's broken promises and failures, so far? What did he say he'd do but hasn't done, at least not yet? That's still on their To-Do list?

2. What are the biggest ideas of the opposition?

Trudeau's biggest failure IMO is his 180 on electoral reform. Still very angry about it.

Eh, I'm sort of torn. I'm disappointed we didn't get MMP or STV, but if the alternative was Trudeau's preferred IRV option (which would have exacerbated the bad tendencies of our current system), I'm not that upset.

This is very true. Though, I wouldn't mind IRV if we had a PR senate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

So he's triggering a leadership race, and (probably) running in it, not because he's in trouble, but because he wants to add members? That's kind of lame.

Sounds like he's an attention whore.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

So he's triggering a leadership race, and (probably) running in it, not because he's in trouble, but because he wants to add members? That's kind of lame.

Is this also part of the 'unite the center' movement?

Can't see a political movement in Canada adopting that spelling.

[Hatman 🍁]

New CRA poll on PEI:

Lib 37 (-8)
PC 28 (+4)
Grn 25 (+7)
NDP 11 (-1)

[Hatman 🍁]

The CHP and Libertarians would probably win seats; don't think anyone else would.

As for splits, I think this would be a more interesting question. Honestly, I think only the Conservatives would, but not right away. Some socialists in the NDP would probably form their own party too and would win a few seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

The CHP and Libertarians would probably win seats; don't think anyone else would.

As for splits, I think this would be a more interesting question. Honestly, I think only the Conservatives would, but not right away. Some socialists in the NDP would probably form their own party too and would win a few seats.

Agreed. I wonder if the Liberals would split? If they don't, we basically get Italy 1945-1990, where the big party makes a deal with a different opposition party each election. The other big question is hwo the Tories would split. Everyone keeps saying on PC/Reform lines, but I think that's a little antiquated (and let's be honest, what's really left of the old PC's in the Tories anyway). I would guess they split along orthodox conservative/populist lines.

I think the obvious split would be between social conservatives vs. libertarians (aka Sheer vs Bernier), but the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative. Our polling suggests a not insignificant percentage of Canadians have right-populist views. So, I could see a conservative populist movement forming from outside the Conservative Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, we just wrapped up a pretty big poll, and have already released dribs and drabs, but I'm not sure if and when we'll do a full release.

Something we should be releasing soon talks about what I mentioned in my last post vis-a-vis right wing populism in Canada, and will hopefully include some maps I made

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, we just wrapped up a pretty big poll, and have already released dribs and drabs, but I'm not sure if and when we'll do a full release.

Something we should be releasing soon talks about what I mentioned in my last post vis-a-vis right wing populism in Canada, and will hopefully include some maps I made

Decent maps from a pollster? Ideological polling? Merry Christmas to Atlas haha.

The plan is to have me make more maps in the future. Might as well use my interests for good use!

[Hatman 🍁]

CP talks about sexual harassment on the Hill, a lot of harassers were fellow MPs.

To the surprise of no one in Ottawa. There are a lot of things that go down in this town that go unreported. The media feels much safer reporting on an MP using tax dollars to pay for a $10 glass of orange juice rather than any kind of sex scandal.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are so many Tory senators who should also get the boot. Next should be Nicole Eaton.

[Hatman 🍁]

CP talks about sexual harassment on the Hill, a lot of harassers were fellow MPs.

To the surprise of no one in Ottawa. There are a lot of things that go down in this town that go unreported. The media feels much safer reporting on an MP using tax dollars to pay for a $10 glass of orange juice rather than any kind of sex scandal.

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I can kind of understand taking one for the team, but reporting pervy messages from an opposing MP should be a slam dunk. There's no Tory/Lib/NDP news source that wants to make their opponents look bad?

Well, I was thinking more of things along the lines of infidelity and the like. There are so many rumours out there, but nothing in the news.