Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Hatman 🍁]

I was just doing some reading up on the NS municipals yesterday. Will probably do a thread about it soon. Anything exciting happening across the province? I see that fraudster Dave Wilson is running for a Cape Breton council seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

McKenna confirms the Harper GHG targets will remain.

Forum-ON: 45/25/23.

If the NDP pivots to the left in the next campaign, they should have no problems coming in 2nd place. Progressives will flock to them when they realize that the Liberals are too unpopular to be able to win again.

Of course, if the NDP runs another populist campaign against the inevitable blue tide, then the Tory landslide is going to be gross.

I know the Liberals have been predicted to lose the last few elections and haven't... but I think this time they are just too toxic.

[Hatman 🍁]

The socons are the only thing stopping him from winning a landslide at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, Brown basically won the Tory leadership by exploiting the sensibilities of activist so con group in a campaign that was never really exposed by the media (we all thought Elliott would win, right?); so now that he's the leader he can pivot and moderate himself.

A cynic's very definition of chameleon politician.

I do feel sorry for the socons. They're probably the most manipulated political group in the country. They're desperate to vote for that one pro-life candidate so they can feel good about not supporting a 'pro-murder' candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

How well known is Pierre Ducasse in Quebec? It's really weird that he has been out of the spotlight over the last 5 years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe Mulcair can enter provincial politics again

[Hatman 🍁]

Another junk poll from Ipsos - SAD!

[Hatman 🍁]

When I saw that his name was trending, I thought he had entered the Conservative leadership race. As unlikely as that is...

RIP.

[Hatman 🍁]

OMG. PEI voted form MMP in their electoral reform plebiscite!!!!

http://www.electionspei.ca/plebisciteresults

Glorious news! Thank you potato headed anne of gablers!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. David Akin opposes electoral reform, so I don't know if I can trust his analysis here.

[Hatman 🍁]

We're starting on thin ice with Trump, some personal diplomacy would help.

SAD!

[Hatman 🍁]

MacLauchlan confirmed to be terrible Premier: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/11/08/pei-voters-support-switch-to-proportional-representation-in-non-binding-plebiscite.html

[Hatman 🍁]

MacLauchlan confirmed to be terrible Premier: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/11/08/pei-voters-support-switch-to-proportional-representation-in-non-binding-plebiscite.html

This is absurd. (While, admittedly he has a point about the low turnout, a switch to proportional representation would be very beneficial in a place like Canada).

Turnout was not that bad (I mean, terrible for PEI standards, but still), considering it is about the same as your average by-election or municipal election. And those who cared voted. Those who didn't, didn't, and if you don't care enough to vote, you don't care enough about the outcome.

The Liberal Party's flagrant disregard for the democratic deficit is a big reason I've never considered supporting them at all in my adult life.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course an important referendum like Quebec separation would never have bad turnout. The 1995 referendum had a 94% turnout.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta poll

Tory: 39%
Wildrose: 25%
NDP: 14%!
Liberal: 14%

JUNK POLL!

Here is another one, with more sane numbers: http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/embargoed-new-alberta-poll-shows-tight-race

Wildrose: 35
NDP: 31
PC: 24
Liberal: 4
AP: 3

[Hatman 🍁]

Electoral reform is one of my bread and butter issues, and I could've spent a lot of time working on submitting my opinions and proposals to the committee. But I knew in the end it would be a big waste of time.

No more sunny ways, eh?

[Hatman 🍁]

Scarpaleggia to Le Devoir: yes we committed to electoral reform, but we wanted a ranked ballot and no one else did.

[Hatman 🍁]

Scarpaleggia to Le Devoir: yes we committed to electoral reform, but we wanted a ranked ballot and no one else did.

Just curious Hatman, do you prefer FPTP or IRV?

Well, my preferable system would be ranked ballot house and a PR Senate. I would support ranked ballot over FPTP, but many who support electoral reform see it as a lateral move. I am a big proponent for ranked ballot in municipal elections, as they're not partisan.

[Hatman 🍁]

PEI poll, posting it because I am happy to see Liberal support eroding there after their giant "fuck you" after going against the result of the electoral reform referendum.

Liberal: 46 (-18)
PC: 25 (+3)
Green: 22 (+13)
NDP: 7 (-1)


Ironically due to the vote split, they would probably win every seat with those numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

The latest two polls for the Federal election have the Liberals crashing down like a meteor. What happened? Did that Fidel statement fiasco hurt Trudeau?

Maybe, but there is also pipelines, electoral reform flip flopping, etc. Bad last few weeks for the Liberals. I for one am back to my old loathing of Canada's natural  governing party.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be honest, I'm rather disappointed in the NDP campaign there. Yes, they won a moral victory of "LARGEST VOTE TOTAL EVARR!!!!" but they failed to win a seat. And what the  was Cardy doing running in Fredericton West instead of Fredericton South or Saint John Harbour? You gotta win a seat to keep momentum going. There's a reason why the Greens are polling third in NB.

[Hatman 🍁]

and now there are rumours he may join the PCs. Good riddance. I guess we can't trust moderate New Democrats? From the looks of it, he was trying to hijack the NDP as his own personal political vehicle, and almost succeeded because the party lacked any organization.

If he was upset by a minor group of vocal socialists or trade unionists or something, he could've as leader used his power to over rule them. I'm sure he would've had the backing of the majority of the membership, and could've done it using democratic means.

[Hatman 🍁]

2.He commented in his open letter or Facebook comment.  I could get the exact quote, but he said something along the lines of "I could spend all my time fighting these people and I'm sure I would defeat them, but that would leave me no time to prepare for the next election."

Does he not realize that he alone does not have to do everything? This is why politicos have teams.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh. Whatever. He doesn't strike me as being very committed. Third wayism has been discredited anyways. I'm not suggesting the NDP make a hard left in the province, but there are some issues it can get behind, like fracking for example. Helped get the Greens elected a seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

NBNDP leader Dominic Cardy quits after being fragged by the hard left.

Kind of surprised NBNDP even has a hard left. New Brunswick has got to be the least hospitable province for any sort of radical left, except maybe PEI. It has no big cities, no tradition of mining/farmer activism, and no arch-reactionary tradition to antagonize the left.

Well, if you read correctly, there is nothing about the "hard left".

It's just annoying unions who refused a leader who wasn't doing their bidding 100% of time.

Ok, point still stands. Factional battles are something relevant parties should do The NB NDP should all be singing the chorus to Living on a Prayer, not engaging in factional battles.

Whoa, we're half way there
Whoa, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand and we'll make it - I swear
Whoa, livin' on a prayer

Meh. Whatever. He doesn't strike me as being very committed. Third wayism has been discredited anyways. I'm not suggesting the NDP make a hard left in the province, but there are some issues it can get behind, like fracking for example. Helped get the Greens elected a seat.

What are your thoughts on people who say the Tories (or GOP for that matter) have to moderate to ever stand a chance against Trudeau? There's a refrain from a certain sort of progressive that the right must always moderate and the left lost because they were in the mushy middle. Not asking this as a gotcha question. Just curious.

I used to think that the left had to moderate in order to get elected, but I think there is a real appetite for a more populist left out there, that appeals to people across the spectrum (look at Bernie Sanders). If the NDP focused on issues that really resonated with people, and ran a populist campaign on those issues, they would attract a lot of support. Remember, most people are not that ideological.

As for the Tories, it depends on the circumstance of course. Mike Harris was on the far right of the Tories, but got elected twice in Ontario. It was a visceral reaction to the previous government which I shall not name Tim Hudak, who also ran a far right campaign failed though. But then again, so did John Tory whose campaign was more centrist. I think I'd give the same advice to conservatives as I would for the NDP. Run on a populist campaign that speaks to voters concerns. You don't need to go down the route of Kellie Leitch or Donald Trump- in fact I would say don't touch social issues at all (I'd suggest the same for the NDP, actually) - but do focus on the economy, and focus on taxes. The voters in the 905 eat that kind of thing up, but harping on social issues will alienate them. I think Mike Harris did this fairly effectively, but Hudak didn't. John Tory brought up social issues too much (even though it wasn't from a far right position) and scared off a lot of small-c conservatives as a result.

I hope that answers your question