France 2012: the official thread

[Keystone Phil]

I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

Well I shouldn't have said that, I know. I actually do understand your presence in this thread, since it's about just getting on the nerves of lefties, but Wormyguy's weirdly random stubborn posturing over Italy's record (or lack thereof) of military accomplishment completely baffles me.

Actually, no, I'm really following the race so that's why I'm posting here.

[Keystone Phil]

Just realized BBC World will have live result coverage (whenever I get to watch, that is). Much better than settling for an Internet stream.

[Keystone Phil]

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

Like Toomey won in 2010, yes.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.

...

I refuse to believe you are this dense. I posted my Toomey prediction - which I stated was my correct prediction - as proof that my predictions aren't necessarily wrong. This means my prediction about Sarkozy winning could be correct just as some of my other predictions have been correct.

This really is not difficult to understand.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't care about the spat with px75.  I'm now referring only to this quote:

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Again, I was asking if maybe you meant in 2017, or some other future election?

...

I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

But that doesn't make any sense, Phil. 

Perhaps I'm not the one trolling in this thread.

Joe, what doesn't make sense here? I believe Sarkozy will win in 2012. Px said, "Oh, like how Santorum won?" Since he was being a smartass about a past incorrect prediction, I decided to mention a correct prediction I made. That's the only reason why I mentioned Toomey. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy and Toomey being on the same electoral trajectory. This is not difficult to follow.

[Keystone Phil]

Le Pen to spoil her ballot. A bit of help for Sarkozy with centrist voters?

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago There's no such thing.

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

[Keystone Phil]

Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

[Keystone Phil]

Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Because it's not the US and French voters (or most voters anywhere) don't like election campaigns that last 2 years.

...uh...ok. I didn't mean "Why don't they have debates a year in advance?" I'm curious as to why it isn't a week or two before the election so undecided voters don't have to wait so long.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarko is so condescending.

Wait! Wait! This sounds like a French Presidential debate...

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

[Keystone Phil]

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

That sentence should probably be written:

If someone is able to explain to me how(Sarkozy could win re-election), I'd consider him the greatest psephologist of all time.

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Explain.

What is with you people? What needs to be explained? I believe he will receive more votes in Sunday's election than Francois Hollande. Disagree? Cool. Not sure what has to be explained though.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

[Keystone Phil]

Don't feed the troll, kids

"Explain."

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?

My detractors have achieved the moral high ground here!

[Keystone Phil]

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

[Keystone Phil]

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

Please don't seriously try to tell me that anything other than that would be deemed "thoughtful" by the denizens of this board. The predictions, signatures, commentary, etc. have been anything but thoughtful.

[Keystone Phil]

Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?

Wow. Ok, dude.