Chile 2009-2010

[Hash]

Chile may be heading towards an historic election this weekend.

President Michelle Bachelet is term limited. She was elected in 2006 as the candidate of the old Concertación coalition, a coalition of the Bachelet's Socialists, the Christian Democrats and smaller liberal/radical type outfits. They have governed since the fall of Pinochet, and they're a rather moderate bunch.

The opposition in 2006 was the Alliance for Chile, split between two major parties: Joaquín Lavín of the UDI, which is pro-Pinochet and batsh**t crazy; and Sebastián Piñera's National Renewal, which is generally more anti-Pinochet (Piñera says he voted NO in 1989). Piñera is a uber-wealthy businessman, Lavín is a nutjob. Lavín and Piñera ran against each other in 2006, and Piñera made the runoff and he has since emerged as the leader of the right.

The hard left, composed mostly of the Communist Party and concentrated in the Juntos Podemos Más coalition is worth between 5 and 10% of the vote.

Piñera won the right's nomination unchallenged. Former Christian Democrat President Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle (1994-2000) won the left's nomination easily. Jorge Arrate, an old revolutionary type, defeated the hard left's 2006 candidate, the Humanist Tomás Hirsch very easily. Congressman Marco Enríquez-Ominami (ex-PS), a 30-something Franco-Chilean politician/filmmaker/son of anti-Pinochet revolutionary announced his candidacy as a centre-left independent and won the support of the Humanists (who left the Communist-led Juntos Podemos Más) and smaller leftie outfits.

Piñera has created a new coalition to replace the Alliance, named the Coalition for Change. He's dropped the nationalistic tones of the right, and replaced notably the right's trademark logo with a rainbow-coloured star (the rainbow is the logotype of the Concertacion). He's established himself since 2006 as a moderate centrist right-winger, and his campaign has put lots of stock into rhetoric similar to Sarkozy's in 2007 and Obama's in 2008. He has also been rather centrist in his discourse, claiming that he'll continue some of the left's policies. His main achievement is that he has established himself as a right-winger different than old Pinochet-loving right-wingers like the nutjob Lavin. That's rather important.

The latest poll I can find is from Nov 20, which has Piñera leading Frei 38-24 in the first round, with Enríquez-Ominami at 20% and Arrate at 7%. Piñera leads 47-37 in the runoff against Frei and 44-40 against Enríquez-Ominami.

Parliamentary elections will be held on the same day as the first round (December 13) and the runoff for President on January 17, 2010.

[Tender Branson]

I think Sebastián Piñera will be elected President by a good enough margin.

The last polls I have seen have it 44-31-18-7 for Piñera in the first round and 49-32 in the second over Frei and 47-35 over Ominami.

The CERC polled 1,200 Chileans from all over the country between November 24 and December 5. It has a margin error of 3 percent.

http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/1106

[Tender Branson]

According to recent polls, Chilean President Michelle Bachelet has a 83% approval rating now.

Last time I checked the Chile polls a few months ago, it was at about 40%.

What caused this spectacular rise ?

[Daniel Adams]

Lavín turned against Pinochet sometime in 2005. He discovered populism is more palatable to voters, so, despite praising Pinochet's economic reforms back in the 1980s, he now supports the creation of a "Social Ministry" (Ministerio Social) to oversee the Finance Ministry. The free market is cruel and evil, he's apparently decided. He has also declared himself a bacheletista and, overall, has done a great job of alienating his former supporters in the Right. He's even toned down his social conservatism despite being an Opus Dei supernumerary; he now supports gay civil unions, for instance. Lavín, a well-nigh sycophantic supporter of Piñera, is a senatorial candidate for the Sixth Circumscription (Valparaíso); it's a tossup at the moment.

Piñera himself was never much of a right-winger. It's mildly amusing how he's the only candidate in the race who hasn't promised any tax cuts (even Arrate supports a 4% decrease in the sales tax). His main proposals in virtually all areas involve more spending and he has enthusiastically backed Lavín's asinine "Social Ministry" idea. Also, much to the UDI's chagrin, he has made campaign ads pointedly expressing his support for gay civil unions. Not surprising, given that Piñera comes from an old Christian Democrat family and campaigned against Pinochet in 1988. He has always been something of a right-winger in name only. As a senator, he often voted for many of the Concertación's laws that rolled back some of Pinochet's economic reforms.

Pinochet's grandson, Rodrigo García (who was with Pinochet in the 1986 assassination attempt), broke with Piñera's Coalición and is running for deputy as an independent.

Bachelet's meteoric rise is indeed baffling. Most of it has to do with the fact that she's successfully remained aloof from most political squabbles, even within her own administration, so no one blames her for anything. Most of her low approvals had to do with the disastrous implementation of Santiago's new transportation system; voters have becomes inured to it by now and it's not much of an issue. Even the main leaders of the right (i.e. Piñera and Lavín) have nothing but praise for Bachelet.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction for tomorrow:

Piñera: 48%
Ominami: 24%
Frei: 22%
Arrate: 6%

I predict an upset advancement to the second round for Ominami, even though the electoral system is pointing to the other direction (Frei in second place): The Chile election system prevents many young voters from registering because of the mandatory voting and young voters are the most likely to back Ominami, but maybe older left-wing voters are tired of Frei and vote for Ominami instead.

[Daniel Adams]

The last poll of the race, by El Mercurio, confirms Piñera is well ahead:

Piñera: 38%
Frei: 23%
Enriquez-Ominami: 20%
Arrate: 7%

In a Piñera vs. Frei second round, the former is up 43-34. Against Ominami, Piñera wins by 41-35.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I've always thought of the UDI as the most right wing major party in the world, counting both social and economic issues.

[Hash]

I've always thought of the UDI as the most right wing major party in the world, counting both social and economic issues.

In the world? That's probably a bit of an overstatement, though you're obviously not entirely wrong on the general point.

[Daniel Adams]

I've always thought of the UDI as the most right wing major party in the world, counting both social and economic issues.

They have veered to the left (or the center, if you prefer) on economic issues since the end of Pinochet's government. I think most Republicans are more economically right-wing than UDI: the UDI seldom, if ever, makes calls for reduction in spending or taxes, for example. Quite the contrary, most of the UDI voted in favor of the last sales tax hike. Many in the UDI also support Lavín's "Social Ministry" idea.

The UDI is much more conservative in social issues, of course, but they are not as politically relevant in Chile as they are in the US (although that's been changing). The UDI is certainly not extremely right-wing socially in the Chilean political spectrum. There is a lot of opposition to abortion and gay marriage even within the Concertación.

[Hash]

Senate races to watch:

5th constituency: Incumbent Senator Carlos Ominami, adoptive father of Marco, is running for re-election as an Independent (after winning in 2001 for the PS). He is likely to win, along with Lily Pérez (RN).

6th constituency: The son of fmr. Pres. Ricardo Lagos, also named Ricardo Lagos (Weber) is running for Senate for the CPD. He is likely to win, but since the election in this constituency will split 1-1 between the right and left, the major race is on the right between Lavín (even though he's from the affluent suburbs of Santiago and not Valparaiso) and incumbent deputy Francisco Chahuán (RN). In the electoral system, the right's seat goes to the top vote-getter of the right coalition, and the race for that spot is very tight between Lavín and Chahuán. I think Lavín will win.

Chile uses a stupid electoral system, another of Pinochet's creations. Marco is proposing electoral reform notably.

[defe07]

Since I've been living in Chile for the last 13 years, I thought you would like to hear another opinion. Piñera is making the runoff first, that's almost a given. However, what happens to who gets the other slot depends on many factors. For example, I see MEO making the runoff if Arrate doesn't exceed the 5% Hirsch got in '05 (Hirsch was the nominee for Juntos Podemos in '05). If Arrate does, I predict Frei will make it. Also, if Piñera gets close to 45% of the vote, I predict he'll win the runoff.

[Hash]

I've seen the numbers Pinera 42, Frei 31 out somewhere on the interwebs.

[jaichind]

As of 4:49PM EST.  It is Pinera 45, Frei 32, Ominami 18.  12.6% of the vote counted.  If Pinera clears 45 he should win second round as well, in my view.

[ag]

Right now it's

Pinera 44.23%
Frey 30.5%
Enriquez-Ominami 19.39%
Arrate 5.86%

Pinera has fallen off a bit, but he is still in the first place in every region other then Coquimbo (Frey is ahead there w/ 39%)


It should be an interesting run-off.

Interestingly, Pinera is about a point ahead among women, compared w/ men (one of the peculiarities of the Chilean electoral system, reflecting the country's traditional conservatism, is that women and men have different polling booths).

[Хahar 🤔]

(one of the peculiarities of the Chilean electoral system, reflecting the country's traditional conservatism, is that women and men have different polling booths)

¡!

[ag]

More returns and both leading candidates slip, though Frey by more:

Pinera 44.03%
Frey 29.62%
Enriquez-Ominami 20.12%
Arrate 6.21%

[Tender Branson]

Prediction for tomorrow:

Piñera: 48%
Ominami: 24%
Frei: 22%
Arrate: 6%

I predict an upset advancement to the second round for Ominami, even though the electoral system is pointing to the other direction (Frei in second place): The Chile election system prevents many young voters from registering because of the mandatory voting and young voters are the most likely to back Ominami, but maybe older left-wing voters are tired of Frei and vote for Ominami instead.

OK, what I feared became the reality ...

[Edu]

(one of the peculiarities of the Chilean electoral system, reflecting the country's traditional conservatism, is that women and men have different polling booths)

¡!

In Argentina we also have places where only women vote and places where only men vote. It's not really that bad

[they don't love you like i love you]

Even Muslim countries don't have that. Wow.

[Edu]

Well, i don't really see the problem, we enter a room, we pick our candidate and that's that, there's absolutely no discrimination and nobody ever complained about it. It's not like women have to travel great distances or beat incredible odds to vote, the buildings where they vote (be it a school or something else) are the same as men, except that we have different specific booths. I don't really know why we do it like this, but as i said, it's not even an issue.

This is at least in the city of Buenos Aires, i can't speak for the rest of the country, though i suspect it's similar.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's not so much that there's a problem as that it's incredibly strange.

[Edu]

Well, not for us, obviously. Up until 1 or 2 years ago, i thought this was the norm in every democratic country

Maybe I'll try to find some info on this tomorrow, now you are making me think about why we have this system (Although i don't really care either way )

[Хahar 🤔]

That would be appreciated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Frankly, I think it's a better idea than the British practice of not releasing lower level results (worse - of actually mixing up ballot papers from different boxes to make sure that even agents the count can't work out for sure who's won where). Yeah, the reaction to public balloting was perhaps a little extreme here...

[Hash]

The phenomenon of separate gender voting booths is rather South American. Bolivia uses it for sure, perhaps Mexico as well.

Also, good news!

Nutjob Lavín seems to have lost (rofl) in the 6th. Lagos (PPD) is on top, with 33.2%, but on the right its Chahuán (RN) who is on top with 28.2% against 27.9%. lulz

In the 5th, Carlos Ominami (Ind) has lost badly. He's fifth and only at 16.7%. Rather bad defeat for him.

Also, in the Chamber, the right has 58 seats, the left 57, an outfit called 'Chile Limpio Vote Feliz' has 3 and there are 2 Indies. Not sure if all counting is done, since I can't find that out on elecciones.gob.cl

Amusingly, there were 2804 votes cast in Chaitén, which was destroyed by a volcano in 2008. I know that only 60ish people still live in the actual city.