Nyvin
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,678
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« on: May 03, 2016, 12:33:55 PM » |
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« edited: May 04, 2016, 10:12:24 AM by Nyvin »
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TN, AL, MS, LA, AR, and OK are probably not trending Democratic enough to make any significant difference in the long term (and certainly not short term either). They all have very subpar population growth and no real big urban areas to drive the partisan change.
The states that are slipping away from Republicans are the ones on the southern Atlantic coast, VA, NC, GA, and to a lesser extent SC. The population growth in the urban areas is what's making them grow so fast, and almost all of it favors Democrats. VA might be on the verge of leaning Democratic, and GA seems to be a time bomb for Republicans.
Texas will probably take forever...but gradually over time it will become competitive. I doubt before 2024 though.
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