Five People Most Likely to be the 45th President

[milhouse24]

Cuomo will def run, especially if he is elected NYS governor.  He won't flip-flop like his father (that supreme court nomination is still available, lol). 

Hillary will probably give it another shot.

Warner would be in a good position after serving one term in the senate and one term as governor. 

Jeb would like to run.

Thune would be able to get the votes.

[milhouse24]

Cuomo will def run, especially if he is elected NYS governor.  He won't flip-flop like his father (that supreme court nomination is still available, lol). 

Hillary will probably give it another shot.

Warner would be in a good position after serving one term in the senate and one term as governor. 

Jeb would like to run.

Thune would be able to get the votes.

I doubt Jeb would run, since many people will still remember his brother's Presidency in 2016. Also, I don't think Cuomo and Warner will run if Hillary runs--but they certainly could if Hillary doesn't run.

GWB won re-election, so there are still plenty of Bush voters out there, specifically in Florida, Ohio, NC, and Virginia.  Besides Jeb is not a pro-war vocalist.  If he stays true to his steady calm governorship, that would be reason enough for voters to like him.  After mid-terms 2010, if the country votes anti-Dem, Jeb is all-in.

Cuomo and Warner should run if they want to be considered as a potential VP.  I don't think people will remember Hillary in 8 years.  There would be some mid-western or southern candidate that would outmaneuver her in the primaries.

[milhouse24]

Cuomo will def run, especially if he is elected NYS governor.  He won't flip-flop like his father (that supreme court nomination is still available, lol).  

Hillary will probably give it another shot.

Warner would be in a good position after serving one term in the senate and one term as governor.  

Jeb would like to run.

Thune would be able to get the votes.

I doubt Jeb would run, since many people will still remember his brother's Presidency in 2016. Also, I don't think Cuomo and Warner will run if Hillary runs--but they certainly could if Hillary doesn't run.

GWB won re-election, so there are still plenty of Bush voters out there, specifically in Florida, Ohio, NC, and Virginia.  Besides Jeb is not a pro-war vocalist.  If he stays true to his steady calm governorship, that would be reason enough for voters to like him.  After mid-terms 2010, if the country votes anti-Dem, Jeb is all-in.

Cuomo and Warner should run if they want to be considered as a potential VP.  I don't think people will remember Hillary in 8 years.  There would be some mid-western or southern candidate that would outmaneuver her in the primaries.

Bush Jr. was much more popular in 2004 than in 2008. Now people blame win (and many will continue to blame him for some time) for the current financial crisis and Great Recession. Jeb would be too close to GWB to win the GOP nomination unless the GOP field was really bad. Also, most Hillary supporters will still support and remember her in 8 years if she decides to run, thus my reasoning for saying Cuomo and Warner will now run to oppose her. Besides, many people still have fond memories of her husband's Presidency and she is more charismatic than both Cuomo and Warner.

I don't think Jeb will be associated with the Iraq War, specifically with draw-down.  Jeb's a competent guy and is far more astute on economic matters than GWB ever pretended to be.  I think Obama will get blamed if the economy continues to falter.  Besides Bill Clinton de-regulated Wall Street, so it wasn't entirely Dubya's fault.

The GOP field is really that bad - Romney, Palin, Giuliani, Gingrich, Huckabee, all terrible.  Thune and Barbour have a slightly better chance.  Hillary is fairly charismatic and compelling, but Cuomo and Warner would also be able to establish a strong volunteer group in NH and SC, respectively.  Bayh would be competitive in Iowa.  16 years is a long time, but Reagan kept fighting and eventually won!

Of course, Hillary could promise Bayh the VP spot (again) for leaving the race, same for Warner.  Cuomo wants to run and he should, he wouldn't be her VP pick anyways.

[milhouse24]

Also, most Hillary supporters will still support and remember her in 8 years if she decides to run, thus my reasoning for saying Cuomo and Warner will now run to oppose her. Besides, many people still have fond memories of her husband's Presidency and she is more charismatic than both Cuomo and Warner.

So what, you expect HRC to run unopposed in the 2016 primaries or something?  Why would the field empty out for her any more than it did in 2008?

I would not expect Hillary to run unpposed in 2016, if she would decide to run. But I don't think that she will face any serious opposition in the primaries if she runs unless Obama is really unpopular. In 2008, the only serious opponent that she had was Obama--all of the other candidates were very weak and she would have easily crushed them all.

I think both Warner and Cuomo could mount a serious challenge.  Cuomo would challenge in NH, and Warner in both Iowa and SC.  I'm sure there would be nostalgia for Hillary, but I think Warner and Cuomo could come off as competent and more of an executive and leader. 

For all of Hillary's success, she's never had an executive role, and I think some voters would see this as a weakness because there's no history of what she would do if she had "to take that 3 am call, and handle a crisis" but the other 2 would have been governors and capable leaders.