It's almost too easy for D's to win in 2016, makes me think R's will win

[GaussLaw]

All evidence except this

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[GaussLaw]

All evidence except this

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I think this is a much better indicator.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

What that really indicates is that Clinton is a very strong candidate, at least for now.  If Clinton says no, the rhetoric will change significantly.

But the point is that there is some evidence that 2016 might not be a banner Democratic year based on the fundamentals.  Presidential approval absolutely is an important factor and would constitute evidence, to use the words of the OP.

[GaussLaw]

Two points:

1) I wish Never would never post in my threads like he has repeatedly said he would not.

2) Didn't the GOP also bash all the polls showing Obama up months before the election?

I don't see why everyone thinks that Democrats are only in a good position because of Hillary.  Does anyone really think their electoral advantage is dependent upon Hillary specifically?

Well, she is clearly, clearly stronger than Biden.  And if we say that polls this far out matter, then if Hillary does not run, the GOP is in a good position as GOP candidates tend to lead non Hillary dems.  Also, the primary would be quite nasty without Hillary.

I do not see what evidence there would be for a Dem advantage if Hillary is not running.

Obama has a 41 percent approval rating.  Somehow, it seems like the hacks on there think that somehow this fact is irrelevant.