If African American voter turnout falls to 1996-2004 levels....

[Nym90]

Black turnout was rising before Obama ran, so it's very unlikely to drop back to 1990s levels. Maybe it could drop back to its 2004 level sans Obama, but the KKK's endorsement of Trump will be enough to keep black turnout energized IMO.

[Nym90]

Remember that even though Obama won't be on the ballot:

1) He'll campaign hard for Hillary
2) He'll make it known through surrogates that he supports Hillary
3) Hillary is running against a guy who hedged on accepting the endorsement of the LITERAL HEAD OF THE KKK
4) Expanding on point 3, Trump's popularity among Open Racists, White Nationalists, and Confederate Flag Wavers isn't lost on the Black Community.

Not all African Americans care that Duke supported Trump. Herman Cain doesn't.

Then I guess it's good for Hillary that she doesn't need 100% of the African American vote to win.