The Atlasian Sentinel

[Maxwell]

I'm confused, I though Matt was a lock to win?  Don't Hagrid's second preferences transfer to him or does that not matter much for some reason?

Hagrid is first person elected, but the surplus he had before has effectively been neutralized, and that's what Matts early win was based on.

I have never had the firmest understanding of how the surplus thing works (how could it be neutralized?), hence my default pessimism about my chances in any given election.  Could someone please elaborate for me?

We seem to do a messier version of this, but...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote#Counting_the_votes

This is how I understand it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

X: The Election Administrator Guidebook is extremely helpful.

Thanks, I was unaware of its existence, I'm sure it will help.

[homelycooking]

Yellow: elected with quota
Orange: elected without quota

The five invalid votes are:

px75 (not registered to vote)
freefair (editing)
dkrolga (registration waiting period)
McGovern (inactivity)
TDAS04 (registration waiting period)

I chose not to enforce the liberal interpretation of campaigning, because as many as 10% of the ballots cast would have been ruled invalid had I done so.

On to the voter rolls...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

either Kalwejt or Alfred depending on who gets the most second preferences

Actually, it goes by first preferences.

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Alfred has 15 first preferences, despite what my count suggests, because of drj's write in. Kalwejt has 16 first preferences in the first count. So, they weren't tied at that stage. Poirot's voter transfers to me, while Hagrid's single-vote surplus doesn't transfer to Kalwejt or Alfred. Alfred is eliminated in the second count.

At the time I wrote that, I was under the impression Kal and Alfred tied at each and every stage. up until the time it came to make a decision between them.  Unless y'all have mucked around with that detail, second preference is still the next tiebreaker, isn't it?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I have never had the firmest understanding of how the surplus thing works (how could it be neutralized?), hence my default pessimism about my chances in any given election.  Could someone please elaborate for me?

What happened was Hagrid stopped getting votes, but others kept getting them, so the quota kept rising, reducing his surplus in the process.  Given the voters we had, additional first prefs for Hagrid would have almost certainly come from people who in the actual election voted Matt.  If two of those Hagrid/Matt voters had voted Matt/Hagrid instead, Matt probably would have been the fifth Senator instead of Kal.  So the problem was that Federalist supporters inefficiently assigned their first and second preferences and didn't start correcting the problem until too late.

[minionofmidas]

If Hagrid had received two fewer first preferences that would have gone to Matt instead, with all else being equal, that puts him at 21 and Matt at 20.74 - however Hagrid would then have gotten surplus transfers that Matt would be lacking (and perhaps from elsewhere as well).
You'd have to check the ballots very closely to see whether Matt really gets ahead of Kalwejt. It's possible, the votes were *just about* there, but only with perfect transfer management really.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Unless something happens that we didn't know about, I'm done.

I really hoped we can serve together

But there's always next time, bud.

[Napoleon]

The Sequel?
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/December_2012_Senate_Election

It's much closer to being a near-exact reverse of April 2012, IMO.

[Marokai Backbeat]

The Sequel?
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/December_2012_Senate_Election

It's much closer to being a near-exact reverse of April 2012, IMO.

ew, look at those fractions, our voting system suckz

[tmthforu94]

The Atlasian Sentinel

President Averroës: Detail-Oriented, But Will He Push The Limit?

Detail. Detail. Detail.

A quick look at the Wiki Page of our President, which is more comprehensive than most RL politicians, or simply a glance at his office can easily convince the reader that he is a man of detail and precision, ready to be as accessible and tech-friendly as possible. While his administration is still budding, one could already estimate that he will be remembered as the most detail-oriented President in Atlasian history.

President Averroës leads a divided nation - despite many suspecting an easy campaign last month, Averroës and DemPGH defeated the Federalist ticket of Matt from VT and Maxwell by just two votes, one of the closest elections in Atlasian history. This begs the question: Will Averroës use his narrow victory as a mandate to push far-left legislation, or, realizing the politicial divides, seek to be a moderate and compromising President?

In what is already shaping up to be one of the hottest debates of this session (even though it hasn't reached the floor!), the President has already voiced support for Senator Napoleon's It's Not Up to You Act, which repeals bi-partisan legislation pushed by former President Marokai that puts an end to late-term abortions, and is also either backing or is undecided on several items proposed by Senator TNF that The Sentinel believes would be damaging to businesses in Atlasia. Are these items just rare exceptions on what otherwise is a moderate agenda for Atlasian standards, or can we expect a dramatic shift to the left in the Senate over the next four months? Only time will tell!

[Adam Griffin]

The only scandal here is the improper use of of it in the headline.

Seriously, many of us feel as if this past election was indeed a referendum and a mandate for Labor to continue leading this country. That may sound ridiculous to some, but it was our election to lose. We didn't. It doesn't matter if the margin was one vote or twenty votes - and I must say, a close election is much more satisfying, anyway - because Labor is still in the White House. Despite the hoopla and propaganda about it being a cakewalk, we never internally thought it would be a blowout like in February - a quick analysis of both registration and resentment numbers beginning in mid-May clearly showed a different result.

I believe the President made a strong, courageous decision when he decided not to water down his beliefs in order to placate and pander to elements that would never support him. He ran as a man of the Left, and won on that message. There is nothing wrong with compromise when it is necessary, but compromise for compromise's sake is a weakness among otherwise strong leaders (see: *b*m*). As someone who sympathizes with those who do what they want and tell the nay-sayers to pipe down whenever their parade is being rained upon, I can vouch that this is often a winning strategy if you're not a conservative.

There's really only one way to go from here. Regardless, I know he'll make the best decision for the country and stand behind him 100%. What would I like to see out of the two options given? Thankfully, it's no longer my decision.

[tmthforu94]

Haha, the headline was a mistake. I quoted an older post to get the right font and stuff, forgetting to remove the headline.

[tmthforu94]

Question:

While I understand you're essentially running unopposed, would the three members of the Midwest Alþing be interested in holding a legislative town hall meeting, sponsored by The Sentinel? I think it'd be a good opportunity for the candidates to articulate their views and for The People to better know their representatives.

[Napoleon]

Atlasia's Premiere Propaganda Machine Publication- TRACKING THE SPECIAL SENATE ELECTION

[Napoleon]

Maxwell: 4 (Maxwell, Goldwater, Dallasfan, cinyc)
Polnut: 3 (Snowguy, Napoleon, Politics Junkie)

Maxwell jumps to an early lead! Is this the end for Labor candidate Polnut, or can he pull it off? Keep reading the Sentinel to find out.

[Napoleon]

Polnut: 14 (Snowguy, Napoleon, Averroes Nix, Dr. Cynic, Sawx, Fritz, MCC, Njall, FloridianOranges, badgate, rejectamenta, Scott, Frodo, Politics Junkie)
Maxwell: 11 (Maxwell, Goldwater, Sbane, Spiral, Anton Kreitzer, Shua, Dallasfan, cinyc, Lumine, wormyguy, barfbag)
Fuzzy: 1 (Hashemite)

Polnut takes an enormous lead as the Federalist hopeful, Maxwell, is left searching for a last minute surge in his favor. Can Maxwell stay afloat, or is this one out of reach?

[Adam Griffin]

Polnut: 17 (Snowguy, Napoleon, Averroes Nix, Dr. Cynic, Sawx, Fritz, MCC, Njall, Snowstalker, FloridianOranges, badgate, rejectamenta, NVGonzalez, Scott, Frodo, Politics Junkie, Ebowed)

Maxwell: 10 (Maxwell, Goldwater, Sbane, Spiral, Anton Kreitzer, Shua, Dallasfan, cinyc, Lumine, wormyguy)

Fuzzy: 1 (Hashemite)

FIRST ROUND:

Polnut 61%
Maxwell 36%
Fuzzy 3%

[Napoleon]

Griffin, if you don't follow the business model our ratings will plummet!

[Sopranos Republican]

Northeast Assembly Special election:

Matt from VT: 4 (cinyc, SirNick, MattVT, NHI)

Earthling: 2 (Averroës Nix, Earthling)

Write in: Dr. Cynic: 1 (Dr. Cynic)

[sentinel]

Northeast Assembly Special election:

Matt from VT: 4 (cinyc, SirNick, MattVT, NHI)

Earthling: 2 (Averroës Nix, Earthling)

Write in: Dr. Cynic: 1 (Dr. Cynic)

Round 1

Matt from VT: Cinyc, SirNick, Matt from VT, NHI, Smoltchanov, Grumps, Goldwater

Earthling: Averroes, Earthling

Dr Cynic: Dr. Cynic

I'm not sure how Round 2 works when you're electing two people. I'll have to look it up before Sunday night...

[Talleyrand]

58 voters in the first 12 hours! That's incredible.

[Napoleon]

58 voters in the first 12 hours! That's incredible.

I believe its a tie.

[Maxwell]

58 voters in the first 12 hours! That's incredible.

I believe its a tie.

27-27-4, which turns 29-28 in the final round.

[Adam Griffin]

FIRST ROUND:

Maxwell: 30 (Maxwell, Goldwater, Sbane, Spiral, Anton Kreitzer, DC Al Fine, PiT, Matt from VT, Jack Enderman, Oldiesfreak1854, HagridOfTheDeep, TJ, Waukesha County, SPC, ChairmanSanchez, Cathcon, Cheesepizza, Dereich, JCL, Shua, Superique, Windjammer, Dallasfan, cinyc, Lumine, wormyguy, dead0man, Grumps, angus)

Polnut: 29 (Snowguy, Napoleon, Averroes Nix, Dr. Cynic, Sawx, Fritz, MCC, Njall, Snowstalker, Sirnick, TNF, Zanas46, Sir John Johns, Hawkeye59, Nathan, DemPGH, Bore, FloridianOranges, badgate, rejectamenta, NVGonzalez, TDSA04, Cappuccino, Earthling, Scott, Butafly, Frodo, Politics Junkie, Ebowed)

Fuzzy: 4 (Hashemite, Antonio V, Kalwejt, MilesC56)

Maxwell 48%
Polnut 46%
Fuzzy 6%

FINAL ROUND:

Maxwell: 31 (Maxwell, Goldwater, Sbane, Spiral, Anton Kreitzer, DC Al Fine, PiT, Matt from VT, Jack Enderman, Oldiesfreak1854, HagridOfTheDeep, TJ, Waukesha County, SPC, ChairmanSanchez, Cathcon, Cheesepizza, Dereich, JCL, MilesC56, Shua, Superique, Windjammer, Dallasfan, cinyc, Lumine, wormyguy, dead0man, Grumps, angus)

Polnut: 31 (Snowguy, Napoleon, Averroes Nix, Dr. Cynic, Sawx, Fritz, MCC, Njall, Snowstalker, Sirnick, TNF, Zanas46, Sir John Johns, Hawkeye59, Nathan, DemPGH, Bore, Antonio V, FloridianOranges, badgate, rejectamenta, NVGonzalez, TDSA04, Cappuccino, Earthling, Kalwejt, Scott, Butafly, Frodo, Politics Junkie, Ebowed)

Maxwell 50%*
Polnut 50%

*Maxwell wins due to more [1] preferences.

With all three candidates poised to lose, the Census lists are naturally being refreshed every second. Can Polnut secure enough [1] preferences to avoid a tie-breaker? Is trans-partisan Fuzzy planning a last-minute come-back using the energy from his dark soul? Can Polnut count on the solidarity of the Snows alone? Will Maxwell find any more pizzavoters to keep his current lead? We don't know, but at least we'll pretend we do!

[Maxwell]

pizzavoters?