GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Barnes]

I'd like to confirm that the anti-Ossoff ads airing on radio are just as awful as their tv counterparts; although at least my eyes aren't forced to see that Star Wars singing trope on the former!

[Barnes]

Does this come up for anyone else when they type Jon Ossoff in Google? It seems weird that would be the top search about him.

http://i.imgur.com/gS4Jkhz.png

!!!

Search engine manipulation!

The dirty tricks will never cease! It's time for the Sixth to fight back against the Pelosi-Hollywood-Fake News-Star Wars-Frat-Gay agenda!

[Barnes]

My prediction remains the same. Ossoff looks to be on track for about 45% in the first round, and maybe 47%-48% in the second round if things go well for him.

I would say he goes down in the second round about 54-46, basically equal to his share in the first.

Also, Handel's campaign claim she is ahead of the other Republicans by double-digits, ha. She's quickly becoming the Harold Stassen of Georgia.

[Barnes]

Moody Internal Poll: https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849703709768658946

Ossoff: 43%
Handel: 12%
Moody: 12%
Hill: 10%
Gray: 8%

Moody's ads are the only Republican candidate on tv. He's been using David Perdue's endorsement as a greater focus than himself, so I expect that's having at least a surface impact among uninterested Republican voters.

[Barnes]

These attacks are all limp and expected. Ossoff is responding to them appropriately.

Yeah, as someone who has to suffer through this stuff on a daily basis, they are pretty weak.

[Barnes]

Goes without saying really, but increased Republican voting doesn't mean all of those votes are being cast for Republicans. Especially given the collapse in support for Trump among Republicans last November.

[Barnes]

Sweating like a dog

Do they actually talk like this in private? That's some true believing.

Yeah really. What's the point of making this confidential if it could have been easily sent to Paul Ryan on a fundraising email list. "Dear Paul, we need your support..."

[Barnes]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Well that's the only reason that this election is such a hot-topic. In a recent poll, something like 18% of the district's residents identified as Democrats versus nearly 50% who said they were Republicans. You cannot win Ga-6 without Republicans voting for you.

[Barnes]

New WSB-Landmark Communications poll has Ossoff at 45% other candidates tied in the teens. Just released at 6 pm.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/north-fulton-county/6th-congressional-race-likely-headed-to-a-runoff/512670023

[Barnes]

Very likely that this turns into an Ossoff vs Handel runoff

Likely but I wouldn't say very likely, it's a special election so that is difficult to estimate. Many polls have different results for the 2nd/3rd place.

Never underestimate Karen Handel's ability to underperform.

[Barnes]

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Apologies, the poll has the race for third tied.

[Barnes]

Now, during a second commercial break, there's a campaign ad from Gray attacking Handel, followed by a nice and friendly positive and on-message ad from Jon Ossoff!

All the Ossoff ads I've seen or heard have had a very upbeat tone.  None of them have been negative, although that may change in the runoff when he has only one opponent.  It's been kind of refreshing.

Did you guys hear that radio add by Handel about the race being a circus? The best part was attacking Moody for shoveling dirt!

[Barnes]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

[Barnes]

One of the anti-Ossoff radio ads had to be edited by the station (I forget which one) because it falsely accused Ossoff of living in DC. lol.

[Barnes]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

Yeah, that ad is over the top.  Politifact examined it and rated it "Mostly False": http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/citing-jazeera-payments-ossoff-uses-selective-information/TvaQHx14pnT6Ri4OU8mJ8O/

A deeper dive on this from Jim Galloway, an excellent political reporter for the AJC.  Really interesting reading.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/jon-ossoff-and-al-jazeera-the-truth-is-far-more-interesting/

Jim is as sardonic as always!

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[Barnes]

From Republican state senator Fran Millar at a GOP breakfast:

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/warring-republicans-try-to-unite-against-ossoff-in-georgias-sixth/

It's so funny to watch them squirm. Millar is one of the worst.

[Barnes]

Adam..

Am I going to faint ?

[Barnes]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.

two months is a bizarre time period, imo.

Why can't a runoff only be mere days/week after the jungle?

Georgia (I don't know about other states) is required to allow plenty of time for overseas military ballots to be received.

The 2008 Senate runoff was only a month later though. Was it because it was Christmas soon, then swearing in soon after?

A federal judicial ruling in 2013 forced the state to extend the time period between a regular election and a runoff. The state legislature dutifully amended the law to have the two month period but declined to change state election to match it. So, for example in 2014, if the two races had gone to runoffs, the Governor's election would have been the first week of December while the Senate race would have been the first week of January 2015. Incidentally, that's a few days after the new Senator would have taken office.

[Barnes]

This ConnorSen dude:

BREAKING: Briarwood precinct in DeKalb reports. Ossoff with 66.0% of 673 ballots cast. Hillary was 58.9%.

[Barnes]

NYT says Fulton now 16% reporting, Ossoff dropped to 55.3% there.

Per @Bencjacobs, those were 19 precincts in far north Fulton (very Republican territory).

Aka the former Milton County which regularly tries to secede from Fulton so Republican country clubs don't have to pay taxes for black people.

[Barnes]

Well this sucks if you are a Democrat...

Very few thought ossoff could get high 40s earlier today wtf is wrong with dems and their doom and gloom

It's just typical teenage angst. Most of this forum is populated by teenage kids who like to feel dramatic.

[Barnes]

Of note, Democrat Christine Triebsch is currently winning Judson Hill's v red state senate seat.
https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/854504680696795136

That will also go to a runoff.

[Barnes]

NYT says Fulton now 16% reporting, Ossoff dropped to 55.3% there.

Per @Bencjacobs, those were 19 precincts in far north Fulton (very Republican territory).

Aka the former Milton County which regularly tries to secede from Fulton so Republican country clubs don't have to pay taxes for black people.

Is that true? I've been hearing this from some Georgia friends. I hope that is not true.

This is true. The only mitigating fact is that Milton County was once a separate county, about 80 years ago, that went bankrupt and was absorbed into Fulton County to cover its debts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_County,_Georgia

There was another county that was merged into Fulton at the same time, but strangely there is no statewide effort to recreate it within the Georgia GOP. Surely that has nothing to do with the fact that today it is majority black.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_County,_Georgia

Oh, of course not!

Not that this has been proposed in nearly every General Assembly since 2005 when the Republicans took control. They even created the little town of Milton to satisfy their wet dreams.

[Barnes]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.

Ossoff has been accused of working for al-Qaeda, of being Nancy Pelosi's whipping boy, and had the President of the United States directly campaign against him today, and he is currently winning a majority in a district which hasn't elected a Democrat since 1976.

Sometimes the posts on this place defy all reason.

[Barnes]

Getting 48% in the primary is a very encouriging sign.

To concern trolls: remember that the republicans won this district 61-38 last year. The fact that the Democrats got 48% in an R+8 district is a good sign.

SPIN SPIN SPIN

Please go visit a Republican soccer mom rally in Cobb County before you give your "analysis" of, well, any election in Georgia.