Re: Margins, Obama vs. Romney and Santorum

[pbrower2a]

I now no longer consider the campaigns of Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul viable. I have chosen to
recognize that the print media have completely abandoned coverage of the Gingrich campaign from the outside, and that the lifeblood of his campaign (money) has dried up. It is now inconceivable that Ron Paul could win enough votes in any primary or caucus to get his campaign moving, and I can't imagine him as a compromise candidate in the event of a brokered convention. He is to the Left of President Obama on foreign policy, military activity, and drugs! He might still excite people, but he doesn't excite enough people.

In brokered convention someone like Jeb Bush, John Thune, or James DeMint has a better chance than either Gingrich or Paul. I intend to lock the earlier thread that shows Gingrich and Ron Paul.

Reddish shades are for a lead by President Obama; bluish shades are for a lead by the relevant Republican campaigner.

     

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Fifty one percent of respondents said Obama does not deserve re-election, the same as in a December Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll. The same poll in August showed 55 percent against another term for Obama.

Forty-three percent of respondents say Obama deserves another four years in the Oval Office, the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows.

In head-to-head matchups, the poll shows Obama five points up on Romney in Pennsylvania, and up six points on Santorum. Both are at the edges of the survey's margin of error.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-presidential-poll-2012-romney-santorum-20120403,0,3046373.story


Nothing on Paul or Gingrich but I no longer consider either a serious candidate anyway.     

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[Adam Griffin]

What's going on in SC?

[pbrower2a]

Nevada, PPP:

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OK, so who is Brian Sandoval?

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_040412.pdf


Paul and Gingrich shown in this poll,  but I no longer consider either a serious candidate anymore.     

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

What's going on in SC?

That's a very old poll by an entity that does little polling. I don't take it seriously. It's as if someone had a poll suggesting that Kentucky or Tennessee would be close.  Basically if President Obama wins South Carolina he is winning 400 electoral votes anyway.

South Carolina is becoming a political snake pit due to a combination of extremism and personal corruption among Republican pols. President Obama probably lags statewide Democrats in the Palmetto State. This is the sort of state that will implode upon Republicans within a decade or so.

[pbrower2a]

INDIANA!

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http://howeypolitics.com/main.asp?SectionID=10&SubSectionID=278&ArticleID=7612  

2008 may have been the freak year for Presidential politics in Indiana because the Democratic nominee was living in the neighboring state and could invest much time in Indiana -- and the Republicans had economic distress that they just couldn't shake off. Maybe as things get better in Indiana the voters think more about taxes and 'social issues'. President Obama no longer lives in neighboring Illinois.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

California (Survey USA); New York (Quinnipiac) -- the expected blowouts.

Montana (Rasmussen) -- 8% and 9% R leads.


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[Adam Griffin]

Any information on MoE? I could see this being right but I would think that based on 2008 performance and current national trends, Obama would be at least a little closer to Romney here.

[pbrower2a]

Maine -- the President slipping a bit in one district.

Do you approve or disapprove of how Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

52-44

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

55-37 Obama

CD1: 61-33 Obama
CD2: 48-41 Obama

http://mprc.me/research/mprc_0412can12.pdf

Nothing on Santorum.


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Obama’s 53-40 lead over Romney here is up 11 points from only a two-point edge when
PPP last polled the state only four months ago. And Romney is not even the most
competitive Republican contender here. Ron Paul lags the president by only five points
(47-42). Romney does manage to best his other two intraparty opponents: Rick Santorum
is down by 16 points (54-38), and Newt Gingrich by 18 (55-37).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_041012.pdf


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Santorum

This poll came in before Rick Santorum dropped out of the Presidential race. Hereon I will no longer show him. It's telling that Santorum does catastrophically in Colorado.

[pbrower2a]

Rick Santorum has dropped out. Showing how he does against President Obama has become irrelevant. I hereby lock this thread and begin a new one.