VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

Did you even read the clarifying sentence I put after that:

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Quinnipiac falls into the same "ridiculously impractical" category Hampton does.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by %.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Gravis release:

Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie
Polling Company: G+2

Average: N + 0.9

I will say that I'm disappointed that the last five polls are all from mediocre companies. Hopefully we actually get polls from CNU, Siena, and Monmouth before the election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Trafalgar is literally a Republican polling firm.

With an extraordinarily good record anywhere but NV.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Siena:

Siena: N+3
Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5

Average: N+2.1

As long as the average stays at this position (or goes higher for Northam), Northam should be fine.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Siena:

Siena: N+3
Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5

Average: N+2.1

As long as the average stays at this position (or goes higher for Northam), Northam should be fine.

You're including Optimus but excluding The Polling Company and WaPo?

Either way, would suggest Northam has just barely weathered the storm.

I'm doing the last 5 polls.