OH, Ras: Romney in the lead

[J. J.]

This is the first Rasmussen poll in Ohio that has had Romney ahead since back on May 31st. Good news!

And that right there should tell you Rasmussen is full of crap.

Except for the fact that a tied race suggests a Romney +1 or +2 historically in Ohio. An R+3 race nationally assumes even a bigger lead.

But we'll ignore that because it isn't convenient enough for the Obama narrative.

Except every other poll has Obama leading or at best tied for Romney.

When one poll sticks out, it is usually an outlier.....polling 101.

These polls are all basically in the MOE, so it wouldn't be an outlier.  Just bloody close. 

[J. J.]

The early voting numbers are bad for Romney in Ohio.
Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray, Bush’s assistant in 2000 and 2004.

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How is that bad for Romney? An 8% GOP shift, whether a gross increase of GOP vote share or even just PVI, from 2008 would translate to a Romney win (assuming that increase correlates to final statewide totals, of course).

I don't expect a general swing of 8% in GOP favor. That would be a Romney win for sure.

I’m saying if Romney matches Bush’s turnout on Election Day with an 8% swing of early votes in his favor compared to 2008, he still loses.

I see what you mean now. Still, I wouldn't categorize a near 8% GOP swing in bellweather county early voting to be "bad news" for Romney.

I also read somewhere (but haven't verified it) that early voting is down statewide from 2008 levels. This would seem to benefit Romney some since Obama did better among early voters than he did among those who voted on election day. Perhaps it just means more of them vote on election day and perhaps I'm grasping for straws, but I've been wondering about this.

With the exception of ME (well, that I know of), R's are doing better in early voting, compared to 2008.  In NC the numbers are higher, but the D's are doing about 8 point worse as a percentage.

One other thing to look at is registration, especially in states without same day registration.  In PA, for example, the D's have lost 1 point relative to the R's.

We've talked about the ground game.  In 2008, some of Obama's "ground game" was increasing registration.  This year, he has failed at it in PA, NV and NC.